28 February 2012
Update
Consumer
Standard pack size implementation to reduce pricing flexibility
19 product categories to come under new law, might impact growth and margins
FMCG companies will lose flexibility to adjust grammage for increasing realization across 19 product categories including
biscuit, soaps, detergents, edible oils, coffee, tea and milk powder.
Companies need to move to nearest standard unit; will impact volumes and margins in packs priced at INR2, INR3 and INR5.
Incremental price increases would be difficult in small unit pack, margin management would become difficult.
Biscuit, toilet soaps and coffee to see maximum impact; BRIT, HUVR and NEST to see maximum impact
560g
160g
169.2g
19.6g
Standard pack sizes likely from 1 July 2012
The Ministry of Consumer Affairs has issued a
notification to enforce uniform packaging for 19 product
categories. The new regulations will come into effect
from July 1, 2012. The industry is in discussion with the
government for relaxing norms for small packs due to
affordability issue. The current guidelines, which gave
consumer companies the flexibility to pack and price
their products on certain popular denominations, were
started in 2004. Companies typically adjust grammage
instead of hiking prices, especially at lower price points
(INR2, INR5, INR10 and INR20). However, over the years,
companies have used this flexibility to boost realizations
by reducing pack sizes at popular price points (INR2, INR5
and INR10). As a result, the consumer often ended
getting lower quantity than assumed. Unconventional
pack sizes also make price comparison difficult as both
prices and grammage are tinkered. Brands in the same
segment have different grammage, making it difficult
for the consumer to arrive at actual product price.
the new norms to include virtually the entire gamut of
consumer products in due course.
New norms may impact volumes, packaging costs
We believe the new norms would impact volume growth
in the medium term as companies modify pack sizes. In
cases where the pack size has to be increased, there is
also a high probability of prices rising. This could impact
volume growth, especially for products driven by low
price points. Companies would incur a one-time cost
for modifying the pack size. They would also need to
phase out existing inventories which could lead to an
interim period of product availability issues. As
consumers take time to get accustomed to new pack
sizes and adapt their shopping behavior accordingly,
volume growth would also suffer.
Margin management to become difficult
Certain packs are driven by popular price points and are
used by consumer companies for margin management
to pass on input cost increases. While the initial
adjustment might not be much of a problem, barring a
few SKUs, changing prices post that would be a hassle.
Changing prices will become increasingly difficult as
coinage issues arise (coins less than INR0.5 would be
phased out from June 2012). Increasing prices by 10-
20% at one go would be very tricky for SKUs having price
points of INR2 and INR5. This would result in delayed
price increases and companies would try to compensate
by hiking prices in larger SKUs. This could have margin
implications till prices are rationalized.
Britannia,
Hindustan Unilever
and
Nestle India
would feel the
maximum impact of the new packaging regulations in
the medium-term.
Biscuits, soaps and detergents, edible oils and tea
to come under the regulation
The new regulation would initially cover 19 product
categories with major ones being biscuits, toilet soaps
and detergents. It would also cover paints, baby food,
milk powder, tea, coffee and edible oils. There would
be still flexibility for detergent powder and milk powder
as pack sizes below 50gm have been allowed. The
smallest permissible pack sizes in tea and coffee is 25gm,
which will impact sale of small sachets, more so in coffee.
Baby food packs would have to be multiples of 100gm
and biscuits in multiples of 25gm up to 100gm. We expect
Amnish Aggarwal
(AmnishAggarwal@MotilalOswal.com) + 91 22 3982 5404