16 May 2012
Update | Sector: Cement
Ambuja Cements
BSE SENSEX
S&P CNX
16,030
4,858
CMP: INR143
TP: INR200
Upgrade to Buy
Premium company at discounted valuations
Expect earnings growth to rebound; Buy for 40% upside
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1,6,12 Rel. Perf. (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
ACEM IN
1,534.4
182/120
-4/-5/16
219.6
4.0
Utilization level for the Indian cement industry have bottomed out in FY12. This is led
by demand recovery (7-8% in FY13) and slowdown in capacity addition.
ACEM is among the best cement companies in India. After four years of muted earnings,
we expect its EPS to grow ~36% in CY12 and ~14% in FY13.
Valuations at 6.1x CY13E EV/EBITDA & USD108/ton are attractive - the stock trades at
a discount to its peers & replacement cost. We upgrade our recommendation to Buy.
Worst behind for cement industry; expect gradual improvement
Valuation summary (INR b)
Y/E Dec
Sales
EBITDA
Adj PAT
EPS (INR)
EPS Gr. (%)
BV/Sh. (INR)
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
EV/Ton (USD)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
2011 2012E 2013E
85.1 102.2 119.7
19.2 25.2 29.3
12.6 17.1 19.4
8.2 11.1 12.7
1.1 35.5 13.7
52.4 57.8 65.3
17.4 12.9 11.3
2.7
2.5
2.2
9.9
7.5
6.1
127
125
108
16.4 20.2 20.6
23.2 28.3 29.5
We believe that the worst is over for the Indian cement industry and expect
gradual improvement in operating performance. Volume recovery (~8% growth
in FY13) coupled with slowdown in capacity addition would drive absorption of
excess capacity. While cement prices are likely to remain buoyant at least till
1QFY13, short-term volatility due to seasonality notwithstanding, we expect
improvement in cement prices and profitability on an annual basis for the next
2-3 years.
Ambuja Cements - best in class; earnings growth to rebound
Ambuja Cements (ACEM) is among the best cement companies in India. Its strong
brand equity, focused segment mix (on retail/ trade), focused market mix (West,
North and East) and well diversified fuel and transport mix enable it to enjoy
high profitability (~INR1,070/ton for CY12E), capital efficiency (~28% RoCE) and
payout (~32%). After four years of muted earnings growth, we estimate EPS
growth of ~36% for CY12. This coupled with strong balance sheet (net cash of
~INR32b in CY12E) would enable it to fund future growth.
Shareholding pattern % (Mar-12)
Others, 8.0
Foreign,
29.0
CCI penalty a near-term headwind
The impending penalty by CCI on the cement industry for alleged cartelization
could impact ACEM by ~INR7.5b. While this is a near-term headwind, our
interactions with cement companies suggest that CCI's claims are untenable &
would be challenged. Cement stocks have already corrected by 10-15% in the
last one month and now factor in the possible penalty. However, government
intervention in pricing is the key risk in our view.
Domestic
Inst, 13.0
Promoter, 50.0
Stock performance (1 year)
Ambuja Cements
Sens ex - Reba s ed
200
175
150
125
100
Premium company at attractive valuations; upgrade to Buy
Post correction, ACEM is trading at attractive valuations - EV of 7.5x CY12E EBITDA
and 6.1x CY13E EBITDA. Its asset valuations are also attractive at USD125/ton for
CY12 and USD108/ton for CY13. Even after factoring in the CCI penalty, the stock is
available at an EV of 6.3x CY13E EBITDA and USD111/ton. At current valuations,
ACEM trades at a discount to replacement cost, as against ~20% average premium
since CY01. Further, it is trading at a discount to its peers, which is unprecedented
as it has always traded at a premium to its peers due to superior operating
performance.
We upgrade the stock from Neutral to Buy,
with a target price of
INR200 (EV of 10x CY13E EBITDA) - an upside of 40%.
1
Jinesh K Gandhi
(Jinesh@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5416

Ambuja Cements
Story in charts
1. Worst behind for cement industry; expect gradual improvement
Prices stable despite trough utilization
Profitability set for consistent improvement
2. Ambuja Cements - best in class
Top quartile profitability and earnings growth
Above average capital efficiency and dividend payouts
Ambuja Cements and ACC are calendar year companies i.e. FY13=CY12
16 May 2012
2

Ambuja Cements
Story in charts (continued)
3. Expect earnings growth to rebound for Ambuja Cements
Expect volume CAGR of ~11% over CY11-13
Realizations likely to increase further
Profitability to improve
Earnings growth to rebound after a muted four years
4. Valuations attractive; Buy with a target price of INR200, 40% upside
Trading at discount to last 5 years' average EV/EBITDA
Trading at discount to replacement cost
ACEM has traded at
average premium of
20% to replacement
cost
16 May 2012
3

Ambuja Cements
Worst behind for cement industry; expect gradual improvement
We believe that the worst is over for the Indian cement industry and expect gradual
improvement in operating performance. Volume recovery (~8% growth in FY13) coupled
with slowdown in capacity addition would drive absorption of excess capacity, and gradual and
consistent improvement in operating performance. While cement prices are likely to remain
buoyant in near future, short-term volatility due to seasonality notwithstanding, we expect
improvement in cement prices and profitability on an annual basis for the next 2-3 years.
Return of volume growth; expect volume growth to sustain
The cement industry has witnessed strong recovery in volumes, with growth of 9.5%
in 2HFY12 (v/s 3.2% in 1HFY12) and 6.9% in FY12. We expect volume growth momentum
to sustain, with growth driven by low base in 1HFY13 and by the benefits of interest
rate cuts in 2HFY13. We expect cement volumes to grow 8% in FY13 and at a CAGR of
10% over FY12-14.
Peak capacity addition, bottom utilization behind
Most of the capacity additions are behind us. Just ~75m tons of new capacities (in
worst case) are expected to be added over FY11-14 as against ~115m tons during FY08-
11. With pick-up in demand from 2HFY12 and decline in pace of capacity addition, we
expect capacity utilization to have bottomed out in FY12 at 74% and expect gradual,
but consistent improvement over the next 2-3 years.
Improving utilization, discipline and higher cost to support pricing
Improvement in capacity utilization (by 700bp over 3 years), driven by pick-up in
demand (10.7% CAGR over FY12-14) and slowdown in capacity addition would be the
key drivers of cement prices. Further, persistent cost inflation coupled with higher
capital cost would necessitate further price increases. Based on current variable cost
and replacement cost of USD140/ton, cement prices need to improve by ~INR30/bag
to earn new capacities 15% RoE.
Recovery in cement prices to drive profitability from FY13
Cement prices witnessed sharp recovery of INR20-25/bag during 4QFY12, with the
maximum increase in March 2012. Peak construction season and production discipline
would lead to strong prices till 1QFY13. We expect EBITDA/ton to improve to ~INR887/
ton in FY12 and INR981/ton in FY13 (v/s FY11 average of INR745/ton) from the trough
of INR525/ton in 2HCY10.
Capacity addition to slowdown
Last 2 years cement volume growth below historical average
Source: Company/MOSL
16 May 2012
4

Ambuja Cements
Stable prices despite trough utilization
Profitability set for consistent improvement
Source: Company/MOSL
16 May 2012
5

Ambuja Cements
Ambuja Cements - best in class; earnings growth to rebound
Ambuja Cements (ACEM) is among the best cement companies in India. Its strong brand
equity, focused segment mix (on retail/ trade), focused market mix (West, North and East)
and well diversified fuel and transport mix enable it to enjoy high profitability (~INR1,070/
ton for CY12E), capital efficiency (~28% RoCE) and payout (~32%). After four years of muted
earnings growth, we estimate EPS growth of ~36% for CY12. This coupled with strong balance
sheet (net cash of ~INR32b in CY12E) would enable it to fund future growth without impacting
the balance sheet and dividend payout.
Top quartile profitability and earnings growth
Above average capital efficiency and dividend payouts
Source: Company/MOSL
Favorable market mix with no presence in South India
ACEM continues to focus on North, West and East India. Its incremental volumes
would come from the North and East regions. Further, its future capacity addition of
~3m tons is planned for Rajasthan. The geographical location of its Gujarat plant gives
it flexibility to choose between the domestic and export markets.
The company is focused on the retail/ trade segments, which contribute ~80% of its
volumes (v/s ~60% for the industry). It has a large distribution network of over 7,800
dealers and 25,000 retailers across 24 states, giving it strong positioning in the semi-
urban and rural markets. As a result, it enjoys very strong brand equity, premium
pricing and market leadership in its key markets.
16 May 2012
6

Ambuja Cements
Focused market mix with limited exposure to South India
Derives ~80% of volumes from trade segment, where prices
are less volatile and ACEM enjoys premium pricing
Source: Company/MOSL
Return of superior profitability and earnings growth
Historically, ACEM has enjoyed above average profitability, driven by focused market
and segment mix, and cost advantage in the form of higher blending, well diversified
fuel mix and freight mix. During CY08-10, due to capacity constraints, it was forced to
purchase clinker from the open market to grow volumes, which impacted profitability.
However, its superior profitability is restored due to the commissioning of new plants
(replacing purchased clinker with captive clinker).
We expect ACEM's volumes to grow ~10% in CY12 (v/s 5% in CY11), resulting in
improvement in capacity utilization to ~86% (v/s 78% in CY11). This coupled with
~INR18/bag improvement in realizations in CY12 would offset cost push and drive
profitability. We expect ACEM's superior profitability to be restored, with EBITDA/
ton of INR1,067 in CY12E (v/s INR993/ton in CY09) as compared to MOSL Cement
Universe EBITDA/ton of INR981 (v/s INR1,125/ton in FY10). Further, ACEM would be
delivering the highest earnings growth in the MOSL Cement Universe in CY12/FY13
(of ~36% v/s 21% aggregate growth), albeit after four years of muted earnings.
ACEM's superior profitability to be restored
Recently added capacities will drive volume CAGR of ~11%
Capacity constraint
led purchase of
clinker impacted
EBITDA in CY08-09
Source: Company/MOSL
16 May 2012
7

Ambuja Cements
Well diversified fuel mix
Balanced transport mix, with usage of coastal shipping
Realizations expected to further improve…
…driving profitability improvement…
…earnings growth after four years of muted earnings…
…and improvement in return ratios
Source: Company/MOSL
Taking initiatives to maintain leadership
ACEM has been taking initiatives to maintain its leadership by focusing on cost
reduction/control. We list below some of these initiatives, which should drive cost
savings over the next 2-3 years.
Focus on usage of alternate fuel:
ACEM has taken up a project named 'Geo20' in
collaboration with Holcim to substitute costlier traditional fossil fuels with
alternative fuels. In CY11, it increased its usage of alternate fuels to 0.59% as
against 0.13% in CY10. This, coupled with continuous efficiency improvement in
utilization of fuels resulted in improved energy consumption, with average
consumption rate reducing from 750kcal per kg in CY10 to 739kcal per kg in CY11.
8
16 May 2012

Ambuja Cements
Manufacturing synthetic gypsum:
To address the problem of costlier but inferior
quality gypsum, coupled with dwindling supplies, ACEM took up a project to
manufacture 'synthetic gypsum' at its Rajasthan plant. This would result in cheaper,
high purity and environment friendly synthetic gypsum.
Acquisition of fly ash manufacturer:
ACEM has taken ~60% stake in Dirk India
Private Limited for INR165m. Dirk India has a facility to manufacture superfine fly
ash and would support ACEM's future fly ash requirements.
Coal block in Maharashtra through consortium:
ACEM along with IST Steel and
Power (IST) and Lafarge India has been allotted a coal block in Maharashtra for
captive mining to meet coal requirements. It has 27.27% stake in the JV. The JV is
in the process of obtaining various statutory clearances and coal mining should
commence from 1QCY15. The estimated cost of the project is INR3.5b (ACEM's
share: ~INR950m).
Acquisition of Dang Cement:
ACEM has acquired 85% stake in Dang Cement
Industries, Nepal for INR193m. Dang Cement holds ~49 acres of factory land and
also holds limestone mining lease in Dang and Tulsipur district of Nepal (close to
northern UP), covering approximately 25 square kilometers (~6,177 acres). This
acquisition would enable cost effective capacity addition.
Strong balance sheet with net cash of INR21/share
Strong cash flow from operations (~INR22b in CY12E) and limited capex (3m ton
greenfield plant in Rajasthan) would result in net cash balance of ~INR32b or ~INR21/
share (~14% of market capitalization). The strong balance sheet will enable it to drive
future growth, without putting pressure on its books. ACEM can put up ~5m tons of
new capacity based on its current net cash and ~3m tons of new capacity based on its
annual cash flow from operations (~10% growth). This is reflected in its significantly
better dividend payout ratio vis-à-vis its peers.
Strong FCF generation resulting in robust balance sheet
Source: Company/MOSL
16 May 2012
9

Ambuja Cements
CCI penalty a near-term headwind; government intervention the key risk
The impending penalty by CCI on the cement industry for alleged cartelization is a near-term
headwind. Our interactions with cement companies suggest that CCI's claims are untenable
and would be challenged by them. Cement stocks have already corrected by 10-15% in the
last one month and now factor in the possible penalty. However, government intervention in
pricing is the key risk in our view.
CCI penalty a near-term headwind, but already priced-in
The impending penalty by CCI on the cement industry for alleged cartelization is
expected to impact ACC/Ambuja by INR7b-7.5b and UltraTech by ~INR12.5b. Cement
stocks have already corrected by 10-15% in the last one month and now factor in the
possible penalty. However, our interactions with the companies suggest that CCI's
claims are untenable and would be challenged in the appellate tribunal. Cement
companies believe that the pricing discipline is driven by economic considerations
and is not resulting in super-normal profits.
Recent CCI judgments indicate maximum penalty of 10% of last 3 years' average turnover
Date
Apr-12
Apr-12
Mar-12
Feb-12
Feb-12
Company/Case
UPL, Excel Crop & others v/s FCI
GOCL & others v/s Coal India
Schott Glass India v/s Kapoor Glass
LPG cylinder manufacturers
Central Circuit Cine Association,
Indore & Others. v/s Sunshine
Pictures & Eros International
DLF
NSE vs MCX SE
Penalty
9% of 3 years avg turnover
3% of 3 years avg turnover
4% of 3 years avg turnover
7% of 3 years avg turnover
10% of 3 years avg turnover
Aug-11
Jun-11
7% of 3 years avg turnover
5% of 3 years avg turnover
Source: Company/MOSL
CCI penalty already factored in post recent correction
FY13E Valuations: After factoring in CCI penalty
EV/EBITDA (x)
EV/Ton (USD)
Before
After ^
Before
After ^
ACC
9.2
9.5
113
117
Ambuja
7.5
7.7
125
130
UltraTech *
8.1
8.4
138
142
Birla Corp
5.1
5.6
38
42
India Cement
4.5
4.8
57
61
Shree Cement
6.0
6.2
114
118
^After Penalty @ 10% of last 3 yrs avg sales
* Includes Grasim's cement business pre-merger (only grey
cement)
CCI cartelization charges seem untenable on appeal
Source: Company/MOSL
16 May 2012
10

Ambuja Cements
Government intervention the key risk
We are positive on the cement industry, as we believe that operating performance is
recovering from the trough of 2HCY10. However, government intervention in pricing
is the key risk to our view. The government in the past has intervened in free pricing
of cement to curb inflation, which has severely impacted operating performance and
stock performance.
Government intervention in the past has impaired pricing power
When
Mar'12
Feb'11
Jan'09
Dec'08
May'08
April'08
April'08
May'07
April'07
March'07
Feb'07
Jan'07
Government initiative
Impact
Changing Excise to 12% of MRP less 30%
Negative
abatement + INR120/ton
Changing Excise from 10% of MRP to 10% of ad-valorem
Positive
+ INR160/ton, for cement priced over INR190/bag
Reimposing CVD/SAD on imports
Positive
Reduces CENVAT rate by 4% to 8.5%
Positive
Lifts ban on exports from Gujarat, and to Nepal
Positive
Ban on cement exports
Negative
Shift to ad-valorem rate of excise at 12% for cement priced
Negative
above INR250/bag MRP
Shift to ad-valorem rate of excise for cement prices above
Positive
INR190/bag MRP
Exempting imported cement from CVD/SAD, if selling price
Neutral
in retail is below INR190/bag
Cap on cement prices for 1 year till Feb'08
Negative
Differential excise duty structure on cement, with excise of
Negative
INR600/ton for cement MRP above INR190/bag, else INR350/ton
Abolishment of 12.5% Import duty on cement
Neutral
Source: Company/MOSL
16 May 2012
11

Ambuja Cements
Premium company at attractive valuations - upgrade to Buy
Post correction (due to impending CCI penalty), ACEM is trading at attractive valuations - EV
of 7.5x CY12E EBITDA and 6.1x CY13E EBITDA. Its asset valuations are also attractive at USD125/
ton for CY12 and USD108/ton for CY13. Even after factoring in the CCI penalty, the stock is
available at an EV of 6.3x CY13E EBITDA and USD111/ton. At current valuations, ACEM trades
at a discount to replacement cost, as against ~20% average premium since CY01. Further, it is
trading at a discount to its peers, which is unprecedented. Unlike currently, it has always
traded at a premium to its peers due to superior operating performance. We upgrade the
stock from Neutral to Buy, with a target price of INR200 (EV of 9x CY13E EBITDA), 40% upside.
Better placed to weather any short-term price declines
Given its focused market mix and well diversified fuel mix, ACEM's earnings are
relatively less sensitive to cement prices. It is therefore, relatively better placed to
weather any short-term price declines. With full benefit of new capacities (helping
to reduce dependence on purchased clinker) and captive power plant realized, ACEM's
superior profitability is restored, justifying premium valuations vis-à-vis peers. The
restoration of superior profitability and return of earnings growth after four years of
muted earnings would be the key re-rating triggers.
Buy with a target price of INR200, 40% upside
Post correction (due to impending CCI penalty), ACEM is trading at attractive valuations
- EV of 7.5x CY12E EBITDA and 6.1x CY13E EBITDA. Its asset valuations are also attractive
at USD125/ton for CY12 and USD108/ton for CY13. Even after factoring in the CCI penalty,
the stock is available at an EV of 6.3x CY13E EBITDA and USD111/ton. At current
valuations, ACEM trades at a discount to replacement cost, as against ~20% average
premium since CY01. Further, it is trading at a discount to its peers, which is
unprecedented. Unlike currently, it has always traded at a premium to its peers due
to superior operating performance. We upgrade the stock from
Neutral
to
Buy,
with a
target price of INR200 (EV of 9x CY13E EBITDA) - an upside of 40%.
Trading at discount to last 5 years' average EV/EBITDA
Source: Company/MOSL
16 May 2012
12

Ambuja Cements
Trading at ~13% below replacement cost, as against average 20% premium historically
ACEM has traded at
average premium of
20% to replacement
cost
Unlike currently, ACEM has traded at premium to its peers
on replacement cost (indexed to ACEM)
ACEM valuations attractive as compared to peers
Source: Company/MOSL
Ambuja Cements: CY13 performance sensitivity to cement price change
Cement Price
chg over CY12
(INR/Ton)
-200
-100
20
100
200
300
400
500
EBITDA/Ton
(INR/Ton)
710
810
930
1,010
1,110
1,210
1,310
1,410
EV/EBITDA
(x)
9.9
8.6
7.4
6.8
6.1
5.5
5.1
4.6
EV/Ton
(USD)
112
111
109
109
108
106
105
104
TP at 10x
EV/EBITDA
(INR)
EV/Ton at
TP (USD)
EPS
7.8
9.0
10.5
11.4
12.7
13.9
15.1
16.3
PE (x)
18.4
15.9
13.7
12.5
11.3
10.3
9.5
8.8
132
102
149
116
169
133
182
145
199
159
215
173
232
188
249
202
Source: Company/MOSL
16 May 2012
13

Ambuja Cements
Financials and Valuation
Income Statement
Y/E December
Net Sales
Change (%)
Total Expenditure
% of Sales
EBITDA
Change (%)
Margin (%)
Depreciation
EBIT
Int. and Finance Charges
Other Income - Rec.
PBT before EO Exp.
EO Expense/(Income)
PBT after EO Exp.
Current Tax
Deferred Tax
Tax Rate (%)
Reported PAT
PAT Adj for EO Items
Change (%)
2009
70,769
13.8
52,100
73.6
18,669
5.9
26.4
2,970
15,699
224
2,097
17,571
-462
18,033
5,308
541
32.4
12,184
11,872
2.2
2010
73,902
4.4
55,666
75.3
18,236
-2.3
24.7
3,872
14,364
487
2,476
16,353
-265
16,619
3,532
450
24.0
12,636
12,434
4.7
2011
85,145
15.2
65,969
77.5
19,177
5.2
22.5
4,452
14,725
526
3,188
17,387
358
17,029
3,613
1,127
27.8
12,289
12,602
1.4
2012E
102,153
20.0
76,968
75.3
25,185
31.3
24.7
5,069
20,116
571
4,000
23,544
2,791
20,753
5,500
623
29.5
14,631
17,073
35.5
(INR Million)
2013E
119,696
17.2
90,377
75.5
29,319
16.4
24.5
5,527
23,792
500
4,250
27,542
0
27,542
7,299
826
29.5
19,417
19,417
13.7
Balance Sheet
Y/E December
Equity Share Capital
Total Reserves
Net Worth
Deferred Liabilities
Total Loans
Capital Employed
Gross Block
Less: Accum. Deprn.
Net Fixed Assets
Capital WIP
Investments
Curr. Assets
Inventory
Account Receivables
Cash and Bank Balance
Others
Curr. Liability & Prov.
Account Payables
Provisions
Net Current Assets
Misc Expenditure
Appl. of Funds
E: MOSL Estimates
16 May 2012
2009
3,047
61,632
64,679
4,858
1,657
71,194
62,283
27,841
34,443
27,144
7,224
19,793
6,832
1,522
8,809
2,630
17,437
10,697
6,740
2,356
27
71,194
2010
3,060
70,241
73,301
5,309
650
79,260
87,788
31,511
56,278
9,307
6,260
31,353
9,019
1,282
17,482
3,571
23,942
12,976
10,966
7,412
5
79,260
2011
3,069
77,626
80,694
6,436
494
87,624
97,023
35,158
61,865
5,773
8,643
38,283
9,250
2,409
20,712
5,913
26,942
15,881
11,061
11,341
3
87,624
(INR Million)
2012E
3,069
85,879
88,947
7,059
500
96,506
107,796
40,228
67,568
5,000
10,009
41,981
11,195
2,799
22,390
5,597
28,055
14,761
13,294
13,926
3
96,506
2013E
3,069
97,280
100,348
7,885
500
108,733
117,796
45,755
72,041
5,000
15,408
49,190
13,117
3,279
26,235
6,559
32,909
17,333
15,577
16,281
3
108,733
14

Ambuja Cements
Financials and Valuation
Ratios
Y/E December
Basic (INR)
EPS
Cash EPS
BV/Share
DPS
Payout (%)
Valuation (x)
P/E
Cash P/E
P/BV
EV/Sales
EV/EBITDA
EV/Ton (Cap) - US$
Dividend Yield (%)
Return Ratios (%)
RoE
RoCE
Working Capital Ratios
Asset Turnover (x)
Debtor (Days)
Working Capital Turnover (Days)
Leverage Ratio (x)
Current Ratio
Debt/Equity
2009
7.8
9.7
42.3
2.4
35.1
2010
8.1
10.7
47.8
2.6
36.7
2011
8.2
11.1
52.4
3.2
46.7
2012E
11.1
14.4
57.8
3.5
48.7
2013E
12.7
16.3
65.3
4.0
41.3
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
17.4
12.9
2.7
2.2
9.9
127
2.2
12.9
9.9
2.5
1.8
7.5
125
2.4
11.3
8.8
2.2
1.5
6.1
108
2.8
19.6
28.4
18.1
24.1
16.4
23.2
20.2
28.3
20.6
29.5
1.0
8
12
0.9
6
37
1.0
10
49
1.1
10
50
1.1
10
50
1.1
0.0
1.3
0.0
1.4
0.0
1.5
0.0
1.5
0.0
Cash Flow Statement
Y/E December
Op. Profit/(Loss) before Tax
Interest/Dividends Recd.
Direct Taxes Paid
(Inc)/Dec in WC
CF from Operations
EO Income
CF from Op. incl EO Exp
(inc)/dec in FA
(Pur)/Sale of Investments
CF from Investments
Issue of Shares
(Inc)/Dec in Debt
Interest Paid
Dividend Paid
CF from Fin. Activity
Inc/Dec of Cash
Add: Beginning Balance
Closing Balance
16 May 2012
2009
18,669
2,097
-5,849
6,591
21,507
462
21,969
-13,157
-3,901
-17,058
42
-163
-224
-4,275
-4,621
291
8,518
8,809
2010
18,236
2,476
-3,983
3,617
20,347
265
20,612
-7,870
965
-6,905
618
-534
-487
-4,632
-5,035
8,673
8,809
17,482
2011
19,177
3,188
-4,740
-699
16,926
-358
16,568
-6,504
-2,384
-8,888
846
972
-526
-5,741
-4,449
3,231
17,482
20,712
(INR Million)
2012E
25,185
4,000
-6,122
-908
22,155
-2,791
19,364
-10,000
-1,366
-11,366
748
629
-571
-7,126
-6,320
1,677
20,712
22,390
2013E
29,319
4,250
-8,125
1,490
26,934
0
26,934
-10,000
-5,399
-15,399
0
826
-500
-8,016
-7,690
3,845
22,390
26,235
15

Disclosures
This report is for personal information of the authorized recipient and does not construe to be any investment, legal or taxation advice to you. This research report does not constitute an offer, invitation or inducement
to invest in securities or other investments and Motilal Oswal Securities Limited (hereinafter referred as MOSt) is not soliciting any action based upon it. This report is not for public distribution and has been
furnished to you solely for your information and should not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person in any form.
Unauthorized disclosure, use, dissemination or copying (either whole or partial) of this information, is prohibited. The person accessing this information specifically agrees to exempt MOSt or any of its affiliates
or employees from, any and all responsibility/liability arising from such misuse and agrees not to hold MOSt or any of its affiliates or employees responsible for any such misuse and further agrees to hold MOSt
or any of its affiliates or employees free and harmless from all losses, costs, damages, expenses that may be suffered by the person accessing this information due to any errors and delays.
The information contained herein is based on publicly available data or other sources believed to be reliable. While we would endeavour to update the information herein on reasonable basis, MOSt and/or its
affiliates are under no obligation to update the information. Also there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that may prevent MOSt and/or its affiliates from doing so. MOSt or any of its affiliates or
employees shall not be in any way responsible and liable for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report . MOSt or any of its affiliates
or employees do not provide, at any time, any express or implied warranty of any kind, regarding any matter pertaining to this report, including without limitation the implied warranties of merchantability, fitness
for a particular purpose, and non-infringement. The recipients of this report should rely on their own investigations.
This report is intended for distribution to institutional investors. Recipients who are not institutional investors should seek advice of their independent financial advisor prior to taking any investment decision
based on this report or for any necessary explanation of its contents.
MOSt and/or its affiliates and/or employees may have interests/positions, financial or otherwise in the securities mentioned in this report. To enhance transparency, MOSt has incorporated a Disclosure of Interest
Statement in this document. This should, however, not be treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the report.
Disclosure of Interest Statement
1. Analyst ownership of the stock
2. Group/Directors ownership of the stock
3. Broking relationship with company covered
4. Investment Banking relationship with company covered
Ambuja Cements
No
No
No
No
Analyst Certification
The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issues, and no part of the compensation of the research analyst(s) was, is, or
will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations and views expressed by research analyst(s) in this report. The research analysts, strategists, or research associates principally responsible
for preparation of MOSt research receive compensation based upon various factors, including quality of research, investor client feedback, stock picking, competitive factors and firm revenues.
Regional Disclosures (outside India)
This report is not directed or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity resident in a state, country or any jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to
law, regulation or which would subject MOSt & its group companies to registration or licensing requirements within such jurisdictions.
For U.K.
This report is intended for distribution only to persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments as described in Article 19 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial
Promotion) Order 2005 (referred to as "investment professionals"). This document must not be acted on or relied on by persons who are not investment professionals. Any investment or investment activity to
which this document relates is only available to investment professionals and will be engaged in only with such persons.
For U.S.
MOSt is not a registered broker-dealer in the United States (U.S.) and, therefore, is not subject to U.S. rules. In reliance on the exemption from registration provided by Rule 15a-6 of the U.S. Securities Exchange
Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act") and interpretations thereof by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC") in order to conduct business with Institutional Investors based in the U.S.,
Motilal Oswal has entered into a chaperoning agreement with a U.S. registered broker-dealer, Marco Polo Securities Inc. ("Marco Polo").
This report is intended for distribution only to "Major Institutional Investors" as defined by Rule 15a-6(b)(4) of the Exchange Act and interpretations thereof by SEC (henceforth referred to as "major institutional
investors"). This document must not be acted on or relied on by persons who are not major institutional investors. Any investment or investment activity to which this document relates is only available to major
institutional investors and will be engaged in only with major institutional investors.
The Research Analysts contributing to the report may not be registered /qualified as research analyst with FINRA. Such research analyst may not be associated persons of the U.S. registered broker-dealer, Marco
Polo and therefore, may not be subject to NASD rule 2711 and NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on communication with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.
Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd
3rd Floor, Hoechst House, Nariman Point, Mumbai 400 021
Phone: +91 22 3982 5500 E-mail: reports@motilaloswal.com