Metals Weekly
28 May 2012
Metals Weekly
Valuations: Indian companies
Price
EV/EBITDA P/BV
(INR) FY12E FY13E FY12E
Steel
Tata Steel
SAIL
JSW Steel
JSPL
NMDC
Sesa Goa
Non-ferrous
Sterlite Inds.
HZL
Nalco
Hindalco
Mid-caps
Monnet Ispat
Godawari
Sarda Energy
Tata Sponge
Adhunik Met.
Bhushan Steel
Jai Balaji
Rain Comm.
Prakash Inds.
408
93
607
456
171
182
97
117
57
112
420
112
121
271
35
439
34
36
45
6.9
8.9
6.8
8.4
5.1
2.2
3.1
4.9
9.1
5.8
11.3
4.1
8.5
1.7
9.8
9.7
28.1
3.2
3.5
5.9
7.6
6.2
8.3
4.0
2.8
2.8
4.2
8.5
5.6
9.8
4.7
6.3
0.8
6.5
9.3
11.1
2.8
2.4
1.6
1.0
0.8
2.4
2.7
1.1
0.8
1.8
1.3
1.2
1.1
0.5
0.5
0.7
0.3
1.4
0.3
0.6
0.3
Metal Prices
CMP
28-May
HRC Tube grade-Mumbai(INR/ton) 40,118
HRC (USD/ton) fob CIS
593
HRC (USD/ton) fob China
662
Sponge iron - Raipur (INR/ton)
23,600
Pig iron - Raipur (INR/ton)
26,655
Iron ore spot (USD/ton) cfr China
138
Coke (USD/ton) fob
365
Shred. scrap (USD/ton) fob Rotter.
415
LME inventories (‘000 ton)
LME Spot (USD/ton)
Indian prices (INR ‘000/ton)
LME inventories (‘000 ton)
LME Spot (USD/ton)
Indian prices (INR ‘000/ton)
LME inventories (‘000 ton)
LME Spot (USD/ton)
Indian prices (INR ‘000/ton)
4,944
1,979
110
939
1,893
105
224
7,695
424
%
0
0
-1
2
0
-1
-1
0
0
-2
-1
-1
-1
1
0
-1
1
0
0
0
0
Week
21-May
40,118
595
668
23,100
26,655
140
370
415
4,958
2,016
111
945
1,921
105
Quarter
% 2-Apr
2 39,438
-7
635
-5
693
-2 24,200
5 25,385
-8
150
-1
370
1
410
-2
-6
3
5
-6
3
5,069
2,098
107
896
2,003
102
258
8,480
431
%
10
3
-1
YTD CY12
2-Jan
36,491
578
666
22,600
24,660
142
375
414
4,954
2,016
105
825
1,855
97
372
7,410
403
27,600
51,760
2,020
1.09
4
8
-3
-3
0
0
-2
6
14
2
8
-40
4
5
5
4
-4
10
224 -13
7,795 -9
420 -2
28,945
53,941
1,949
1.20
Note: Detailed table on pg 21
Source: MOSL
Valuations: Global companies
Price
Steel
A. Mittal EUR 11.4
Posco
k KRW 356
US Steel USD 21.8
Nucor
USD 36.1
Gerdau
BRL 16.2
Bao Steel CNY 4.8
Non-ferrous
Alcoa
USD 8.6
Teck Res. USD 30.3
Xstrata
GBp 9.1
BHP
AUD 31.6
Rio Tinto AUD 55.9
Detailed on pg 21
EV/EBITDA
CY11 CY12
5.1
5.6
4.7
6.8
7.3
5.9
4.3
4.9
3.7
5.0
5.9
5.7
P/BV
CY11
0.4
0.7
0.9
1.5
1.1
0.8
Gold (INR/10gms)
29,030
Sliver (INR/1kg)
53,825
Lead Spot LME (USD/ton)
1,945
FC 6-8% C basis 60% Cr (USD/lb Cr) 1.20
INR/USD
BDI
3 28,075
-4 55,950
-4 2,020
1
1.19
55.1
0
54.9
8
50.9
5
52.7
1,034 -9
1,141 11
934
-41
1,738
Source: MMR/LME/Metal Bulletin/SteelPricesIndia/MOSL
Global steel prices remain weak, Indian long steel prices recover;
iron ore and coal show further weakness
Indian long steel prices recovered ~4% WoW, while flat steel prices were
flat WoW. HRC tube grade prices were flat WoW at INR40,118/ton while
pencil ingot prices increased 5% WoW to INR35,700/ton. Sponge iron
prices increased 2.2% WoW to INR23,600/ton. Supply-side issues have
helped long product prices. However, demand remains weak.
Global steel prices remain weak. Steel prices decreased 0.2%, 0.6%,
0.8%, 3.2% and 1.5% WoW in Europe, China, Russia, Turkey and North
BSE Metals Index v/s Sensex
America, respectively. Chinese steel prices are close to their 52-week
BSE Metals Index
low. CISA said that steel prices in China will be low and occasionally
Sensex
volatile due to high level of production and weak demand.
101
63.5% Fe iron ore prices decreased 1% WoW to USD138/ton while Richards
100
99
Bay steam coal prices decreased 1% WoW to USD95/ton.
98
97
Base metal prices declined, with spot prices for aluminum, copper, zinc
96
and lead declining 1.8%, 1.3%, 1.5%, and 0.2% WoW, respectively.
95
Rio Tinto Alcan is asking Japanese aluminum buyers for a USD200/ton
premium for 3QCY12, higher than USD115-127/ton premium charged in
2QCY12, citing a tight market. Hydro Norway has announced that its
Source: Bloomberg
Kurri Kurri smelter, with 120ktpa output capacity in Australia, will be
Note: Indexed to 100 on 21 May 2012
closed on account of high cost of production and depressed prices.
Stock performance table on pg 22
Sanjay Jain
(SanjayJain@MotilalOswal.com); Tel:+91 22 3982 5412
Pavas Pethia
(Pavas.Pethia@MotilalOswal.com); Tel:+91 22 3982 5413
28 May 2012
1
6.9
5.4
0.6
4.5
4.0
0.9
4.7
4.1
0.9
5.1
4.6
2.4
4.1
3.6
1.6
Source: Bloomberg

Metals Weekly
Contents
Page No.
Ferrous
..................................................................................
3-10
India ............................................................................................................ 3
European Union .......................................................................................... 4
China ............................................................................................................ 5
Other regions ........................................................................................ 6 & 7
Steel raw material ................................................................................. 8 & 9
Ferro alloys ................................................................................................ 10
Non ferrous
..........................................................................
11-17
Aluminum ................................................................................................. 11
Copper ....................................................................................................... 13
Zinc ............................................................................................................ 14
Lead ........................................................................................................... 15
Commodity curve analysis ................. ...................................................16
China non-ferrous trade data ................ ...............................................17
Key indicators
...........................................................................
18
Industrial production growth across the globe
........................
19
BSE Exchange announcements
................................................
20
Metals valuation matrix
...........................................................
21
Metals stock performance
.......................................................
22
28 May 2012
2

Metals Weekly
Ferrous
Ferrous
INDIA
Indian flat steel prices (INR/ton)
HRC tube grade M umbai
CRC 0.63 DSK Delhi
GP 0.63 Delhi
50,000
45,000
CRC 0.63 grade prices were flat WoW
at INR42,722/ton while HRC tube
grade prices were flat WoW
at INR40,118/ton
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
Indian long steel prices (Mandi; INR/ton)
P encil Ingo t
Rebar 1
2mm (including excise and VA T)
Pencil ingot prices increased
5% WoW to INR35,700/ton
56,000
52,000
48,000
44,000
40,000
36,000
32,000
28,000
24,000
20,000
Steel intermediates prices (INR/ton)
DRI Raipur
HM S 80:20 M andi
30,000
Sponge iron prices increased
2.2% WoW to INR23,600/ton. HMS
scrap prices increased 4.1% WoW
to INR28,391/ton
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
India: Monthly crude steel production
India
Yo Y (%)
6.8
30
20
10
0
-10
India's crude steel production
increased 4.7% YoY to 6m tons
in April
6.2
5.6
5.0
4.4
Source: SteelPricesIndia/WSA/MOSL
28 May 2012
3

Metals Weekly
European Union
European steel prices (EUR/ton)
No rth
So uth
Impo rts
700
North European HRC prices
decreased 0.4% WoW to USD534/ton
600
500
400
300
Rotterdam export shredded scrap prices
Ro tterdam (USD/t)
500
Rotterdam export shredded scrap
prices were flat WoW at USD415/ton
400
300
200
100
European medium section prices (EUR/ton)
Reinfo rcing B ar
M edium Sectio ns
700
600
500
400
300
European Union: Monthly crude steel production
EU
Yo Y (%)
18
70
40
10
-20
-50
European Union crude steel
production increased 5.4% YoY
to 14.9m ton in April
15
13
10
8
Source: Metal Bulletin/Bloomberg/SBBS/WSA/MOSL
28 May 2012
4

Metals Weekly
China
China domestic prices (USD/ton)
840
760
HRC
Rebar
Chinese HRC prices decreased
1% WoW to USD662/ton while
rebar prices decreased
0.1% WoW to USD650/ton
680
600
520
440
Steel trade (m ton)
Expo rts
Impo rts
6
5
3
2
0
Steel inventories (m tons)
10
9
7
6
4
Monthly crude steel production
China
Yo Y (%)
64
60
40
20
0
-20
Chinese crude steel production
increased 2.6% YoY to 60.6m tons
in April
55
46
37
28
Source: Metal Bulletin/Bloomberg/SBBS/WSA/MOSL
28 May 2012
5

Metals Weekly
Other regions
CIS steel export prices (USD/ton)
Russia HRC
B illet
Slab
850
Russian HRC billet prices decreased
0.8% WoW to USD605/ton
700
550
400
250
Middle East import and Turkish export steel prices (USD/ton)
950
M iddle East HRC Impo rt
Turkish Exp B illets
800
Middle East import HRC prices
were flat WoW at USD700/ton
650
500
350
North America domestic HRC prices (USD/ton)
Do mestic HRC
Shredded scrap
900
North American HRC prices
decreased 1.5% WoW to USD658/ton
700
500
300
100
CIS: Monthly crude steel production
CIS
Yo Y (%)
10
60
30
0
-30
CIS crude steel production
decreased 4% YoY to 9m tons in April
9
8
7
6
Source: Metal Bulletin/SBBS/WSA/Bloomberg/MOSL
28 May 2012
6

Metals Weekly
Other regions
Middle East: Monthly crude steel production
M iddle East
Yo Y (%)
1.9
28
16
4
-8
-20
Middle East crude steel production
increased 5% YoY to 1.7m tons
in April
1.7
1.6
1.4
1.2
North America: Monthly crude steel production
No rth A merica
Yo Y (%)
11
80
North America crude steel
production increased 5.5% YoY
to 10.4m tons in April
9
8
6
4
0
40
Global: Monthly crude steel production
Glo bal
Yo Y (%)
140
40
20
0
-20
Global crude steel production
increased 1.3% YoY to 128m tons
in April
125
110
95
80
Global: Monthly crude steel capacity utilization
Capacity Utilizatio n
84
Global crude steel capacity
utilization decreased 80bp YoY
to 81.1% in April
81
78
75
72
69
66
Source: Bloomberg/WSA/MOSL
28 May 2012
7

Metals Weekly
Steel raw materials
Indian 63.5% grade iron-ore fines in China (USD/ton)
CIF
FOB
200
Chinese spot CFR iron ore prices
decreased 1% WoW to
USD138/ton DMT
160
120
80
40
OTC iron-ore swaps (USD/ton)
3Q1
2
4Q1
2
201
3
201
4
Iron ore swaps traded
lower by ~1% WoW
150
145
140
135
130
125
120
115
110
China iron-ore production and imports (m tons)
Ore Impo rts
Ore P ro d
P ig iro n pro d (RHS)
150
120
90
60
55
50
45
60
30
40
35
China iron-ore inventories (m tons)
110
100
90
80
70
60
Source: Metal Bulletin/Bloomberg/MOSL
28 May 2012
8

Metals Weekly
Steel raw material
Freight rates to China (USD/ton)
B razil
A ustralia
India
56
42
28
14
0
Coal price index
Richards B ay Steam Co al
150
125
Richards Bay steam coal price
decreased 2.4% WoW to USD95/ton,
the lowest level since October 2010
100
75
50
Coke price index
China co ke expo rt spo t (LHS)
China 1 grade metallurgical co ke
st
450
400
350
300
250
2,220
2,160
2,100
Steel raw materials (INR/ton)
P ig Raipur
Iro n o re fo r DRI - RHS
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
8,600
7,200
5,800
4,400
3,000
Source: Metal Bulletin/Bloomberg/MOSL
28 May 2012
9

Metals Weekly
Ferro alloys
China’s imports of manganese ore and conc
Impo rts
P rices (RHS)
1,400
1,100
800
500
200
340
280
220
160
100
Manganese and chrome ore FOB spot prices
M n 48% Euro pe spo t
40% Chro me A frica (RHS)
9.5
8.3
7.0
5.8
4.5
300
250
200
150
100
Ferro and silico manganese prices (USD/t)
1,600
1,450
1,300
1,150
1,000
FeM n 75%M n-7.5%C
SiM n 65%M n-1
7%Si
Ferro chrome CIF prices (CNY/t)
Fe Chro me 50% Cr China
Fe Chro me 63% Cr P ittursburgh
16,000
13,000
10,000
7,000
4,000
Source: Metal Bulletin/Bloomberg/MOSL
28 May 2012
10

Metals Weekly
Non-ferrous
Non-ferrous
Aluminum
LME inventories and prices
Invento ries
Spo t
3,200
6.0
5.2
4.4
Aluminum spot prices decreased
1.8% WoW to USD1,979/ton
2,700
2,200
1,700
1,200
3.6
2.8
2.0
Global primary aluminum monthly production and YoY growth
P ro ductio n
Yo Y
4,000
3,750
3,500
3,250
3,000
32
20
8
-4
-16
China primary aluminum monthly production and YoY growth
P ro ductio n
Yo Y
1.8
1.5
1.2
0.9
0.6
80
55
30
5
-20
India: Company-wise primary aluminum monthly production
Hindalco
B alco
Nalco
VA L
Source: Metal Bulletin/LME/Bloomberg/MOSL
28 May 2012
11

Metals Weekly
Non-ferrous
Aluminum
Aluminum raw material and power cost for marginal producer in US
CP C
A lumina
P o wer
LM E
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
CPC US
700
575
450
325
200
Alumina
480
400
320
240
160
Industrial power US (Lousiana)
10.0
8.5
7.0
5.5
4.0
Source: Metal Bulletin/LME/Bloomberg/Industry/MOSL
28 May 2012
12

Metals Weekly
Non-ferrous
Copper
LME inventories and prices
Invento ries
Spo t
12,500
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
Copper spot prices decreased
1.3% WoW to USD7,695/ton
10,000
7,500
5,000
2,500
Global refined copper monthly production and YoY growth
P ro ductio n
Yo Y - RHS
1.8
1.7
1.6
1.6
1.5
1.4
10.0
7.5
5.0
2.5
0.0
-2.5
China: Refined copper monthly production and YoY growth
P ro ductio n
Yo Y - RHS
0.54
0.48
0.42
0.36
0.30
36
25
14
3
-8
India: Company-wise refined copper monthly production
80
60
40
20
0
Hindalco
HCL
Sterlite
Source: Metal Bulletin/LME/Bloomberg/MOSL
28 May 2012
13

Metals Weekly
Non-ferrous
Zinc
LME inventories and prices
Invento ries
Spo t
3,000
2,500
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
Zinc spot prices decreased
1.5% WoW to USD1,893/ton
2,000
1,500
1,000
Global refined zinc monthly production and YoY growth
P ro ductio n
Yo Y - RHS
1.2
1.1
1.1
1.0
0.9
22
14
6
-2
-10
China: Refined zinc monthly production and YoY growth
P ro ductio n
Yo Y - RHS
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.2
60
40
19
-2
-22
India: Company-wise refined zinc monthly production
HZL
B ZL
3
4
3 2
2
3 3 2 3 3
2
2
2
3
3 3 3
2 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 2
2
0
Source: Metal Bulletin/LME/Bloomberg/MOSL
28 May 2012
14

Metals Weekly
Non-ferrous
Lead
LME inventories and prices
Invento ries
Spo t
3,000
0.5
0.4
0.3
Lead spot prices decreased
0.2% WoW to USD1,945/ton
2,500
2,000
0.2
1,500
1,000
0.1
0.0
Global refined lead monthly production and YoY growth
P ro ductio n
Yo Y - RHS
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
25
15
5
-5
-15
China: Refined lead monthly production and YoY growth
P ro ductio n
Yo Y - RHS
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.2
60
40
20
0
-20
-40
India: Company-wise refined lead monthly production
HZL
Source: Metal Bulletin/LME/Bloomberg/MOSL
28 May 2012
15

Metals Weekly
Commodity forward curves
LME aluminum (USD/ton)
Current
1
-week ago
3-mo nth ago
2,800
2,600
2,400
2,200
2,000
1,800
LME copper (USD/ton)
Current
1
-week ago
3-mo nth ago
9,000
8,700
8,400
8,100
7,800
7,500
7,200
LME zinc futures (USD/ton)
Current
1
-week ago
3-mo nth ago
2,200
2,100
2,000
1,900
1,800
Base metals US spot premium (USD/ton)
A luminium
Zinc
Co pper
300
235
170
105
40
Source: LME/Metal Bulletin/Bloomberg/MOSL
28 May 2012
16

Metals Weekly
China non-ferrous trade data
China’s aluminum trade ('000 tons)
Impo rts
Expo rts
450
350
250
150
50
China’s refined copper trade ('000 tons)
Impo rts
Expo rts
500
400
300
200
100
0
China’s refined zinc trade ('000 tons)
Expo rt
Impo rt
75
50
25
0
China’s alumina imports ('000 tons) and prices (USD/ton)
Impo rts
P rices (RHS)
800
600
400
200
0
600
450
300
150
0
Source: LME/Metal Bulletin/Bloomberg/MOSL
28 May 2012
17

Metals Weekly
Key indicators
China new loan growth
1,600
1,250
900
550
200
China PMI
60
55
50
45
40
China: Fixed asset investment
33
30
27
24
21
18
Currency movement with respect to the rupee
USD (LHS)
GB P
EURO
58
94
86
78
70
62
54
The rupee depreciated 0.4% WoW
against the US dollar and was trading
at INR55.11/USD
54
50
46
42
38
Source: Bloomberg/MOSL
28 May 2012
18

Metals Weekly
Industrial production growth
The UK and the US
UK
USA
16
8
0
-8
Japan
40
20
0
-20
-40
European Union
France
Germany
Italy
20
8
-4
-16
-28
BRIC
Russia
B razil
India
China
18
12
6
0
-6
-12
Source: Bloomberg/MOSL
28 May 2012
19

Metals Weekly
Stock Exchange announcements
The Board of Directors of
SAIL
has approved the appointment of Mr AK
Pandey, Executive Director, as Director (Raw Material & Logistics).
The Board of Directors of
Tata Steel
has appointed Mr Cyrus Pallonji
Mistry, Deputy Chairman of Tata Sons Limited, Mumbai and Mrs Mallika
Srinivasan, Chairperson of Tractors & Farm Equipment Limited, Chennai,
as additional directors on the Board.
NMDC
has signed a contract for the steel melting shop (SMS) package
for the upcoming 3mtpa integrated steel plant at Nagarnar, Chhattisgarh
with a consortium led by M/s Siemens VAI Metal Technologies, GmbH &
Co, Austria on 23 May 2012.
Upcoming results
NMDC - 28 May 2012
SAIL - 29 May 2012
Prakash Industries - 29 May 2012
28 May 2012
20

Metals Weekly
Metals
Valuation Matrix
Valuations: Indian companies
Rating
Steel
Tata Steel
SAIL
JSW Steel
JSPL
NMDC
Sesa Goa
Non-Ferrous
Sterlite Inds.
Hindustan Zinc
Nalco
Hindalco
Price Mkt Cap
(INR) (USD M)
408
93
607
456
171
182
7,282
7,488
2,517
8,067
12,919
2,996
EPS (INR)
FY11
FY12E
62.3
12.0
77.4
40.1
16.4
49.0
20.9
7.7
38.7
44.4
18.6
35.7
FY13E
33.7
9.0
45.2
47.5
21.1
41.3
P/E (X)
FY12E FY13E
19.5
12.1
15.7
10.6
9.2
5.1
12.1
10.3
13.4
9.6
8.1
4.4
EV/EBITDA (X)
FY12E FY13E
6.9
8.9
6.8
8.4
5.1
2.2
5.9
7.6
6.2
8.3
4.0
2.8
P/B (X)
FY12E FY13E
1.6
1.0
0.8
2.4
2.7
1.1
1.5
0.9
0.8
1.9
2.2
1.0
Sell
Sell
Sell
Buy
Not Rated
Neutral
Buy
Buy
Neutral
Buy
97
117
57
112
6,210
9,507
2,864
3,980
15.2
11.6
4.2
17.6
17.6
13.2
3.1
19.5
14.1
14.1
3.2
19.7
5.5
8.9
18.1
5.8
6.9
8.3
17.7
5.7
3.1
4.9
9.1
5.8
2.8
4.2
8.5
5.6
0.8
1.8
1.3
1.2
0.7
1.6
1.2
1.0
Mid-caps
Monnet Ispat
Neutral
420
548
Godawari
Buy
112
66
Sarda Energy
Neutral
121
82
Tata Sponge
Buy
271
79
Adhunik Metaliks
Buy
35
81
Bhushan Steel
Neutral
439
1,742
Jai Balaji
Buy
34
43
Rain Commodities*
Buy
36
236
Prakash Industries
Buy
45
124
* Rain Commodities follows calendar year reporting. Read
43.7
47.6
52.3
8.8
8.0
27.0
26.5
33.9
4.2
3.3
19.1
24.3
25.4
5.0
4.8
65.8
51.2
68.1
5.3
4.0
14.9
1.8
9.2
19.1
3.8
47.3
48.2
48.8
9.1
9.0
12.2
-29.2
-14.3
-1.2
-2.4
9.3
19.0
18.2
1.9
2.0
19.9
19.4
21.6
2.3
2.1
FY11/FY12/FY13 as CY10/CY11/CY12
11.3
4.1
8.5
1.7
9.8
9.7
28.1
3.2
3.5
9.8
4.7
6.3
0.8
6.5
9.3
11.1
2.8
2.4
1.1
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.7
0.6
0.3
0.3
1.4
1.2
0.3
0.3
0.6
0.5
0.3
0.3
Source: MOSL
Valuations: Global companies
BBG
Code
Steel
Arcelor Mittal
Posco
US Steel
Nucor
Gerdau
Bao Steel
Non-Ferrous
Alcoa
Teck Resources
Xstrata
BHP-Billiton
Rio Tinto
MT NA
005490 KS
X US
NUE US
GGBR4 BZ
600019 CH
AA US
TCK US
XTA LN
BHP AU
RIO AU
Currency
Price
Mkt Cap
(USD M)
22,442
26,416
3,139
11,449
13,280
13,420
9,206
17,865
43,037
158,370
86,284
P/E (X)
CY11
7.9
8.8
8.8
15.5
12.5
8.1
14.5
8.5
8.2
9.0
7.9
CY12
5.0
7.4
6.0
9.6
9.4
8.6
8.7
7.5
6.8
8.3
6.8
EV/EBITDA(X)
CY11
CY12
5.1
5.6
4.7
6.8
7.3
5.9
6.9
4.5
4.7
5.1
4.1
4.3
4.9
3.7
5.0
5.9
5.7
P/BV
CY11
0.4
0.7
0.9
1.5
1.1
0.8
EUR
k KRW
USD
USD
BRL
CNY
USD
USD
GBp
AUD
AUD
11.4
356.0
21.8
36.1
16.2
4.8
8.6
30.3
9.1
31.6
55.9
5.4
0.6
4.0
0.9
4.1
0.9
4.6
2.4
3.6
1.6
Source: Bloomberg
28 May 2012
21

Metals Weekly
Metals Stock
Performance
Among large-cap companies,
NMDC outperformed and Tata Steel
underperformed over the
last one month
Metals stock performance on absolute and relative basis (%)
Months
Steel
Tata Steel
SAIL
JSW Steel
JSPL
NMDC
Sesa Goa
Non-Ferrous
Sterlite Inds.
Hindustan Zinc
Nalco
Hindalco
Mid Caps
Monnet Ispat
Godawari
Sarda Energy
Tata Sponge
Adhunik Metaliks
Bhushan Steel
Jai Balaji
Rain Commodities
Prakash Industries
SENSEX
Best performer
Absolute Perf (%)
1
3
6
-12.9
-7.5
-12.9
-4.7
0.1
-0.7
-8.5
-7.4
-5.4
-7.3
-10.5
-12.1
-12.7
-14.1
-21.0
6.3
-15.0
-1.6
-18.6
-5.8
-13.4
-11.4
-24.0
-25.0
-5.4
-20.3
-15.8
-12.8
-7.9
-23.9
-13.4
2.6
-6.7
-6.1
-33.4
15.9
-22.5
-3.6
-21.2
-10.3
6.7
5.7
10.1
-8.6
-5.8
5.8
-7.1
5.7
10.6
-6.4
16.3
-5.2
27.1
-7.8
-13.0
37.6
-44.6
21.1
22.3
3.3
12
-28.7
-35.3
-33.4
-28.7
-32.6
-34.5
-42.3
-9.7
-32.2
-40.1
-15.3
-33.5
-42.8
-22.4
-57.4
1.4
-81.4
-1.3
-27.7
-10.1
Relative Perf to Sensex (%)
1
3
6
12
-7.1
-1.8
-7.1
1.1
5.8
5.0
-2.8
-1.7
0.3
-1.5
-3.1
-1.1
-13.7
-14.7
4.9
-10.0
-5.5
-2.5
2.4
-13.6
3.4
2.4
6.8
-11.9
-9.1
2.5
-10.4
2.4
7.3
-9.7
-18.6
-25.2
-23.3
-18.6
-22.5
-24.4
-32.2
0.4
-22.0
-30.0
Among mid-cap companies, Bhushan
Steel outperformed and Adhunik
Metaliks underperformed over the
last one month
Worst performer
-4.7
-3.1
13.0
-5.2
-6.3
12.9
-8.5 -23.4
-6.9
3.6
23.8 -32.7
-8.4
4.2 -11.1 -12.3
-15.3 -23.1 -16.2 -47.3
12.0
26.2
34.3
11.5
-9.3 -12.2 -47.9 -71.3
4.1
6.7
17.8
8.9
-12.8 -10.9
19.0 -17.5
-
-
-
-
Source: MOSL/Bloomberg
Global metals stock performance on absolute basis (%)
1week
1month
-18.2
-9.9
-19.6
-20.6
-13.3
-17.7
-21.2
-7.2
-9.5
-3.0
-7.2
-20.3
-13.0
-18.3
-11.1
-13.8
-10.7
-14.7
-15.6
Absolute Perf (%)
3 months
6 months
-24.3
-12.8
-28.5
-24.5
-25.7
-32.6
-22.5
-17.2
-28.6
-6.6
-13.8
-27.1
-23.7
-30.5
-21.9
-22.1
-17.5
-29.3
-24.5
-6.4
-8.4
-19.4
3.1
-8.6
4.0
-2.7
1.8
0.5
-4.6
0.3
-1.4
1.2
-16.4
13.4
11.2
12 months
-32.6
-28.0
-41.6
-34.6
-32.0
-53.8
-51.9
-13.8
-50.0
-24.2
-19.1
-37.9
-27.5
-55.6
-36.3
-24.4
Among global mining companies,
BHP Billiton was the best performer,
while Xstrata was the worst
performing stock over the
last one month
Among global steel majors, Bao
Steel was the best performer while
US Steel was the worst performing
stock over the last one month
Mining
Rio Tinto
BHP Billiton
Vale
Xstrata
Anglo American
Vedanta
Steel
US Steel
Nucor
Arcelor Mittal
Bao Steel
Posco
JFE Holdings
Nippon
Thyssen Krupp
Voest Alpine
Gerdau
Aluminium
Alcoa
Rusal
Chalco
Best performer
0.3
0.5
0.9
-0.2
-0.9
0.8
1.1
5.0
0.1
0.2
-0.7
-2.7
-3.9
-5.3
-0.6
5.2
2.4
4.3
-0.3
Worst performer
-2.8
-47.3
-18.2
-59.1
-8.9
-51.7
Source: MOSL/Bloomberg
28 May 2012
22

Motilal Oswal
Product Gallery
weekly
Motilal Oswal
Sector
Periodicals
power utilities monthly

Metals Weekly
Disclosures
This report is for personal information of the authorized recipient and does not construe to be any investment, legal or taxation advice to you. This research report does not constitute an offer, invitation or inducement
to invest in securities or other investments and Motilal Oswal Securities Limited (hereinafter referred as MOSt) is not soliciting any action based upon it. This report is not for public distribution and has been
furnished to you solely for your information and should not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person in any form.
Unauthorized disclosure, use, dissemination or copying (either whole or partial) of this information, is prohibited. The person accessing this information specifically agrees to exempt MOSt or any of its affiliates
or employees from, any and all responsibility/liability arising from such misuse and agrees not to hold MOSt or any of its affiliates or employees responsible for any such misuse and further agrees to hold MOSt
or any of its affiliates or employees free and harmless from all losses, costs, damages, expenses that may be suffered by the person accessing this information due to any errors and delays.
The information contained herein is based on publicly available data or other sources believed to be reliable. While we would endeavour to update the information herein on reasonable basis, MOSt and/or its
affiliates are under no obligation to update the information. Also there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that may prevent MOSt and/or its affiliates from doing so. MOSt or any of its affiliates or
employees shall not be in any way responsible and liable for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report . MOSt or any of its affiliates
or employees do not provide, at any time, any express or implied warranty of any kind, regarding any matter pertaining to this report, including without limitation the implied warranties of merchantability, fitness
for a particular purpose, and non-infringement. The recipients of this report should rely on their own investigations.
This report is intended for distribution to institutional investors. Recipients who are not institutional investors should seek advice of their independent financial advisor prior to taking any investment decision
based on this report or for any necessary explanation of its contents.
MOSt and/or its affiliates and/or employees may have interests/positions, financial or otherwise in the securities mentioned in this report. To enhance transparency, MOSt has incorporated a Disclosure of Interest
Statement in this document. This should, however, not be treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the report.
Disclosure of Interest Statement
1.
2.
3.
4.
Analyst ownership of the stock
Group/Directors ownership of the stock
Broking relationship with company covered
Investment Banking relationship with company covered
Companies where there is interest
Sesa Goa, Prakash Industries
No
No
No
Analyst Certification
The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issues, and no part of the compensation of the research analyst(s) was, is, or
will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations and views expressed by research analyst(s) in this report. The research analysts, strategists, or research associates principally responsible
for preparation of MOSt research receive compensation based upon various factors, including quality of research, investor client feedback, stock picking, competitive factors and firm revenues.
Regional Disclosures (outside India)
This report is not directed or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity resident in a state, country or any jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to
law, regulation or which would subject MOSt & its group companies to registration or licensing requirements within such jurisdictions.
For U.K.
This report is intended for distribution only to persons having professional experience in matters relating to investments as described in Article 19 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial
Promotion) Order 2005 (referred to as "investment professionals"). This document must not be acted on or relied on by persons who are not investment professionals. Any investment or investment activity to
which this document relates is only available to investment professionals and will be engaged in only with such persons.
For U.S.
MOSt is not a registered broker-dealer in the United States (U.S.) and, therefore, is not subject to U.S. rules. In reliance on the exemption from registration provided by Rule 15a-6 of the U.S. Securities Exchange
Act of 1934, as amended (the "Exchange Act") and interpretations thereof by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC") in order to conduct business with Institutional Investors based in the U.S.,
Motilal Oswal has entered into a chaperoning agreement with a U.S. registered broker-dealer, Marco Polo Securities Inc. ("Marco Polo").
This report is intended for distribution only to "Major Institutional Investors" as defined by Rule 15a-6(b)(4) of the Exchange Act and interpretations thereof by SEC (henceforth referred to as "major institutional
investors"). This document must not be acted on or relied on by persons who are not major institutional investors. Any investment or investment activity to which this document relates is only available to major
institutional investors and will be engaged in only with major institutional investors.
The Research Analysts contributing to the report may not be registered /qualified as research analyst with FINRA. Such research analyst may not be associated persons of the U.S. registered broker-dealer, Marco
Polo and therefore, may not be subject to NASD rule 2711 and NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on communication with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.
Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd
3rd Floor, Hoechst House, Nariman Point, Mumbai 400 021
Phone: +91 22 3982 5500 E-mail: reports@motilaloswal.com