4 June 2012
Update | Sector: Oil and Gas
Indraprastha Gas
BSE SENSEX
S&P CNX
15,988
4,848
CMP: INR236
Await PNGRB/Government move
Under review
Delhi High Court order gives interim relief, in our view
Delhi High Court order favoring IGL: The Delhi High Court has quashed the tariff order
that the Petroleum & Natural Gas Regulatory Board (PNGRB) had served to
Indraprastha Gas (IGL) on 9 April 2012 to "fix the maximum retail price or requiring
IGL to disclose the Network Tariff and Compression Charges to its consumers."
Await PNGRB/Government move: We believe that the issue at hand could take the
following courses: (1) PNGRB goes to the Supreme Court and/or (2) the government
amends the PNGRB Act so as to strengthen its authority.
Interim relief to IGL, in our view: The High Court, while giving its decision, restricted
itself to the notified PNGRB Act, and we believe that the verdict clearly points out
the loopholes in the Act. Now, to get entities like IGL and Gujarat Gas under PNGRB's
authority, the government will have to strengthen the Act through amendments. In
our view, this order provides only interim relief to city gas distribution (CGD)
companies. Tariff determination (for third party volumes) for long distance pipeline
entities like Gujarat State Petronet and Gail India would continue.
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range
1,6,12 Rel. Perf. (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
IGL IN
140.0
453/170
12/-36/-17
33.0
0.6
Valuation summary (INR m)
Y/E March
2012
Sales
25,151
EBITDA
6,320
NP
3,072
EPS (INR)
21.9
EPS Gr. (%)
18.4
BV/Sh. (INR) 85.5
P/E (x)
10.8
P/BV (x)
2.8
EV/EBITDA (x) 5.9
EV/Sales (x)
1.5
RoE (%)
27.9
RoCE (%)
30.5
2013E
36,053
7,333
3,527
25.2
14.8
101.3
9.4
2.3
5.2
1.0
27.0
30.6
2014E
43,940
8,112
3,902
27.9
10.7
119.8
8.5
2.0
4.4
0.8
25.2
29.4
What the Delhi High Court order says
"PNGRB is not empowered to fix/regulate maximum retail price at which gas
is to be sold by entities like IGL, to the consumers". - We believe this was
never disputed by PNGRB.
"PNGRB is also not empowered to fix any component of Network Tariff/
Compression Charge for an entity like IGL having its own distribution network".
- The High Court says that as per the PNGRB Act, PNGRB can only fix the tariff to
be charged to other marketers of gas (tariff between entities) and not the
tariff to be charged to consumers (tariff charged by IGL, which has its own
network). The High Court acknowledges PNGRB's powers to fix tariff for the
third party, but these will apply to IGL post the completion of its exclusivity
period, when new entities can use IGL's network.
Shareholding pattern % (Mar-12)
Others, 14.9
Foreign,
18.1
Key arguments of PNGRB and IGL
Domestic
Inst, 17.0
Promoter
50.0
Stock performance (1 year)
Indrapras tha Gas
Sens ex - Reba s ed
480
405
330
255
180
PNGRB argued that it is not fixing the retail price of CNG but only the transport
cost. It further added that IGL had accepted its exclusivity grant, which was
subject to submission of tariff for PNGRB approval.
IGL says that the "Act" is supreme over "Rules" and the Act mentions tariff
determination only for Common Carrier.
Rating under review
While clarity is yet to emerge on the PNGRB/Government move, in the interim,
the verdict is positive for IGL, as it can maintain status quo in its operations.
If PNGRB goes to the Supreme Court and wins, and if marketing margin were
reduced from the current implied INR4.6/scm to INR0-3/scm, we estimate 20-
60% impact on IGL's EBITDA and 30-90% impact on PAT. Our rating is Under
Review.
1
Harshad Borawake
(HarshadBorawake@MotilalOswal.com);+91 22 3982 5432
Deepak Dult
(Deepak.Dult @MotilalOswal.com);+91 22 3982 5445