21 June 2012
Update | Sector: Oil & Gas
Reliance Industries
BSE Sensex
17,033
S&P CNX
5,165
CMP: INR719
TP: INR760
Neutral
JV partner Niko cuts KG-D6 2P gas reserves by 80% to 1.9tcf
Additional investments contingent on gas price revision; cutting SOTP
by INR25/sh
Bloomberg
RIL IN
Equity Shares (m)
3,271.0
52-Week Range (INR) 906/674
1,6,12 Rel. Perf. (%) -2/-12/-12
M.Cap. (INR b)
2,351.8
M.Cap. (USD b)
41.7
Valuation summary (INR b)
Y/E March
2012 2013E 2014E
Net Sales
3,299 3,407 2,997
EBITDA
336 310 321
Net Profit
200 186 206
EPS (INR)
67.7 63.4 69.9
EPS Gr. (%)
-1.1 -6.2 10.2
BV/Sh. (INR) 560.7 612.1 670.6
P/E (x)
10.6 11.3 10.3
P/BV (x)
1.3
1.2
1.1
EV/EBITDA (x)
6.9
7.4
6.7
EV/Sales (x)
0.7
0.7
0.7
RoE (%)
13.0 11.0 11.1
RoCE (%)
12.1 11.0 11.3
Niko Resources, the E&P JV partner of Reliance Industries, in its 'Reserves and Contingent
Resources Update' has announced (1) reduction in KG-D6 2P gas reserves by 80% to
1.9tcf, and (2) its production guidance for next 7 years indicates decline in D1D3/MA
production and increase in new gas production from D6 satellites fields and NEC-25
block, resulting in gross production of 44mmscmd by FY19 (v/s current rate of
32mmscmd).
Niko stated that the reduced reserve estimates only pertain to the currently producing
D1D3/MA fields and does not include satellite field reserves. Further, it stated that
the additional capex will be contingent on gas price revision and government approval
for the development plan.
RIL's 1P reserve higher than Niko's new 2P reserve:
RIL does not give 2P reserve
numbers and only gives out 1P reserve number in its annual report. Post the
downgrade in FY12, RIL's 1P gas reserves were 104bcm (3.7tcf, net share number).
It should be noted that RIL's reserve numbers also include its share in PMT (RIL
stake at 30%). Even after adjusting PMT reserves (estimated), RIL's 1P reserve
number will still be higher than Niko's 2P reserve number of 1.9tcf.
Niko states that additional investments contingent on gas price revision:
Niko
stated that the new reserve estimates factor pertain only to the current producing
fields - D1D3/MA and additional investment decisions on development plans
(satellite and NEC) are contingent upon natural gas pricing (revision scheduled in
March 2014). Further, it stated that the reserve/production estimates by Ryder
Scott (independent reserve consultant) does not assume any additional drilling
in D1D3/MA fields, as Ryder Scott believes that no new wells will be required to
recover the revised 2P reserves in D1D3/MA fields in the KG-D6 block.
Key things to watch on RIL:
(1) Resolution of cost recovery issues with the
government, (2) DGH approvals for E&P program and update on KG-D6 ramp-up,
(3) Clarity on 7-year income tax holiday for KG-D6 gas (we model tax holiday), (4)
Margin trend in refining and petchem, (5) Developments on USD12b capex plan,
and (6) Update on BWA and retail foray.
Shareholding pattern % (Mar-12)
Others,
22.8
Foreign,
21.7
Domestic
Inst, 10.6
Promoter
44.9
Stock performance (1 year)
Cutting SOTP; Maintain Neutral:
We have cut our plateau production assumption
from 60mmscmd in FY18 to 40mmscmd and cut our overall recovery from 10 tcf to
~7tcf. However, our FY13 and FY14 estimates remain unchanged. Our revised SOTP-
based target price is INR760 (earlier INR785) as we cut our KG-D6 value to INR51/
share from earlier INR74/share and NEC-25 to INR13/share (earlier INR15/share).
We maintain Neutral due to concerns of (1) RoE slipping to sub-12% levels, (2)
falling KG-D6 volumes, and (3) increased share (75%) of cyclical refining and
petchem businesses. The stock trades at 11.3x FY13E adjusted EPS of INR63.4 and
7.4x FY13E EV/EBITDA.
Harshad Borawake
(HarshadBorawake@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5432
Deepak Dult
(Deepak.Dult@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5445
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