10 August 2012
1QFY13 Results Update | Sector: Automobiles
Tata Motors
BSE SENSEX
17,561
Bloomberg
Diluted Eq.Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR
1,6,12 Rel. Perf. (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
S&P CNX
5,323
TTMT IN
3,323.8
321/138
-3/-5/46
794.4
14.4
* Consolidated; ^ Normalized for capitalized expenses
CMP: INR239
TP: INR300
Buy
Tata Motors’ (TTMT) operating performance for 1QFY13 was better than we had expected. Margins in both the JLR
and standalone businesses were higher than our expectations. Consolidated EBITDA margin was 13.3% (v/s our
estimate of 12.2%) and adjusted PAT was INR25.6b (v/s our estimate of INR23.3b), driven by (a) favorable mix and
lower forex loss in JLR, (b) favorable mix, lower raw material cost and higher other income in standalone business,
(c) currency gains on JLR translation, (d) despite higher tax in JLR.
JLR’s realizations improved 3.2% QoQ (flat YoY) to GBP43,594 (v/s our estimate of GBP42,363), driven by
favorable mix. EBITDA margin declined 10bp QoQ (increased 110bp YoY) to 14.5% (v/s our estimate of 13.7%),
driven by higher capitalization (~120bp QoQ), which offset the impact of ~130bp QoQ higher cost. However,
higher tax at 29% (v/s our estimate of 19%) restricted JLR’s adjusted PAT.
S/A volumes declined 4% YoY (34% QoQ), impacted by decline in M&HCVs and PVs, despite growth in LCV
volumes. Realizations declined ~5% YoY (2% QoQ) to INR557k on adverse product mix, resulting in revenue
decline of 9% YoY (36% QoQ) to INR105b. EBITDA margin declined 220bp QoQ (150bp YoY) to 7.3% (v/s our
estimate of 5.5%), impacted by negative operating leverage.
While the management indicated that demand for Evoque remains healthy, it highlighted that JLR may not
remain isolated from the worsening macro environment in some key markets. However, it has maintained its
FY13 volume guidance of ~370,000 units and EBITDA margin of ~15%.
Valuation and view:
Our consolidated EPS estimate for FY13 has been downgraded by ~5% to INR33.5 (11%
downgrade in normalized EPS to INR14.7) due to increase in JLR’s tax rate, despite 9% upgrade in our EBITDA
estimate. The stock is trading at 7.1x FY13E and 6.2x FY14E consolidated EPS. Maintain
Buy.
Consolidated Quarterly Performance
Y/E March
1Q
Total Op Income
332,888
Growth (%)
23.0
EBITDA
42,358
EBITDA Margins (%)
12.7
Depreciation
11,432
Other Income
1,658
Interest Expenses
8,556
EO Exp/(Inc)
570
PBT after EO Exp
23,458
Tax rate (%)
15.0
PAT
19,939
Minority Interest
-39
Share
of Associates
96
Adj PAT
20,481
Growth (%)
(3.5)
E: MOSL Estimates
FY12
FY13
FY12
FY13E
2Q
3Q
4Q
1Q
2Q
3Q
4Q
361,975 452,603 509,079 433,236 463,481 479,878 579,390 1,656,545 1,955,985
26.9
44.0
44.3
30.1
28.0
6.0
13.8
35.6
18.1
45,039 68,270 67,445 57,548 60,716 58,545 75,971 223,112 252,781
12.4
15.1
13.2
13.3
13.1
12.2
13.1
13.5
12.9
13,308 16,159 15,354 15,659 16,000 16,500 21,179 56,254 69,338
608
1,675
1,586
2,386
1,250
1,500
1,700
6,618
6,836
5,251
7,204
7,721
8,044
7,000
7,000
7,831 29,822 29,875
4,390
1,643
1,713
4,405
0
0
0
8,315
4,405
22,700 44,938 44,243 31,826 38,966 36,545 48,661 135,339 155,999
16.0
23.8
-41.3
27.3
31.3
31.3
31.5
-0.3
30.5
19,069 34,227 62,504 23,138 26,789 25,125 33,321 135,739 108,373
-335
-210
-239
-276
-250
-175
22
-823
-679
40
22,461
6.4
38
35,307
43.9
75
44,403
79.2
-414
25,651
25.2
160
26,699
18.9
190
25,140
-28.8
764
249
700
34,107 125,568 111,455
-23.2
38.5
-11.2
(INR Million)
FY13
Var
1QE
(%)
430,668
1
28.28
52,542
10
12.2 110bp
16,500
-5
1,350
77
7,500
7
0
29,432
8
20.87 640bp
23,290
-1
-100
176
150
23,340
28.2
-376
10
Jinesh Gandhi
(Jinesh@MotilalOswal.com) + 91 22 3982 5416
Chirag Jain
(Chirag.Jain@MotilalOswal.com) + 91 22 3982 5418
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.

Tata Motors
JLR: Strong volumes, favorable mix drive revenues
JLR's wholesale volumes grew 34% YoY (-15% QoQ) to 83,452, led by 41% YoY (-15%
QoQ) growth in LR volumes, boosted by Evoque at 26,946. Jaguar volumes grew by
4% YoY (-17% QoQ) to 11,774 units led by higher sales of XF with 2.2ltr diesel
engine and 3.0ltr XJ option in China.
JLR's retail volumes were also robust at 37% YoY (-13% QoQ), led by strong growth
across regions, especially China (86%). As a result, contribution of China, its most
profitable market, increased to 22.2% of wholesale volumes (v/s 15.7% in 1QFY12
and 19% in 4QFY12).
Realizations were higher by 3% QoQ (flat YoY) to GBP43,594 (v/s est GBP42,363)
driven by favorable mix. As a result, JLR's revenues grew by 34% YoY (-15% QoQ)
to GBP3.6b (v/s est GBP3.5b).
EBITDA margins declined by 10 bps QoQ to 14.5% (+110bps YoY) to 14.5% (v/s est
13.7%), driven by higher capitalization (~120bp QoQ) which off-set impact of
~130bp QoQ higher cost. However, Fx loss (~GBP67m) and higher tax at 29% (v/s
est 19%) restricted JLR's adj. PAT growth to 8% YoY (-51% YoY) to GBP236m (v/s est
GBP264m).
Following the recognition of net deferred tax asset in 4QFY12 of GBP217m, the
effective tax rate in JLR has risen, though tax cash outflows for UK operations
remain nil due to accumulated losses.
During 1QFY13, an amount of GBP157m of preference shares was redeemed by
JLR and proposed dividend of GBP150m (in Aug-12).
In 1QFY13, it earned FCF of GBP109m, as against FCF of GBP424m in 4QFY12 and
GBP137m in 1QFY12.
10 August 2012
2

Tata Motors
Jaguar: Trend in market mix (retail)
Land Rover: Trend in market mix (retail)
Jaguar: XF key volume driver (retail)
Land Rover: Evoque key volume contributor (retail)
Trend in JLR realizations (GBP/unit)
Trend in JLR'S EBITDA
Source: Company, MOSL
JLR: Maintains guidance on volumes & margins; slowing industry volumes
reflecting in increasing competitive pressures
It has maintained its FY13 volume guidance of ~370,000 units and EBITDA margins
of ~15%. Evoque continues to perform well with a healthy order book.
While management indicated that marketing spends/incentives for JLR specifically
have not risen with its focus on profitable growth, it did ceded to increasing
demand and margin pressures in China and other major markets. Also, its non-
Evoque volumes are under pressure and is reflected in ~13% YoY (-20% QoQ)
decline.
With additional capacity due to 3rd shift, it no longer has any capacity constraints.
It currently has manned capacity to ~400,000 units.
10 August 2012
3

Tata Motors
Given model change, incentives on existing Range Rover model is expected to
rise over the next two quarters, overall it may not change the margin dynamics
considerably.
It plans to launch new Range Rover (based on premium light weight platform) and
Jaguar XF Sportsbrake both in 1QCY13.
The company has maintained its capex guidance to GBP2b for FY13 (v/s GBP1591m
in FY12), of which 50% will be invested in R&D and balance in Capex. It has also
guided capex of ~GPB2b for FY14 as well. The capex will cover initial investments
in JV with Chery, engine plant in UK and new product developments.
Standalone: Lower RM cost drives better than expected margins at 7.3%
Standalone volumes declined by 4% YoY (-34% QoQ) impacted by ~25% YoY (-42%
QoQ) decline in M&HCVs and ~10% YoY (-44% QoQ) decline in PVs, despite ~17%
YoY (-17% QoQ) growth in LCV volumes.
Healthy volumes growth in SCVs was supported by higher production in Pantnagar
and Dharwad facility. Buses segment also witnessed high growth on the back of
lower base and good orders from STUs.
Despite price increase of ~1.5% in April 2012, adverse product mix (lower MHCV
share) led realisations to decline by ~5% YoY (2% QoQ) to INR557k (v/s est INR575k),
resulting in net sales declining by 9% YoY (36% QoQ) to INR105b (v/s est INR108b).
EBITDA margins declined by 220 bps QoQ (-150bp YoY) at 7.3% (v/s est 5.5%),
impacted by negative operating leverage despite fall in RM cost (-320bp QoQ & -
60bp YoY, v/s est -20bp QoQ). Further, higher other income (driven by ~INR1.2b of
dividend on redeemed JLR's pref. share) boosted adj. PAT to INR3.4b (v/s est -
INR325m) - a 14% YoY (-54% QoQ) decline.
Management indicated that M&HCV volume remains under pressure and is
reflected in increased discounting in 1QYF13, and it doesn't expect any meaningful
recovery in near future. Strong recovery in monsoons and higher infrastructure
spend could lead to reversal in current MHCV demand trend. Demand for LCVs
(particularly SCVs) continues to remain strong.
However, production cuts in Jun-12 resulted in under control inventory with ~1
month at plant level and 4-6 weeks at dealer level.
In domestic business, RM and component prices are expected to remain under
control with focus on cost reduction to continue.
1QFY12
49,144
24.9
76,825
38.9
125,969
63.7
60,465
30.6
11,172
5.7
197,606
YoY (%)
-25.2
16.5
0.2
-11.5
0.0
-3.4
4QFY12
QoQ (%)
63,796
-42.4
26.5
107,369
-16.7
44.5
126,246
0.0
52.4
95,091
-43.8
39.4
19,763
-43.5
8.2
241,100
-20.8
Source: Company, MOSL
Trend in segment mix*
Segment
1QFY13
M&HCVs
36,763
Contribution (%)
19.3
LCVs
89,483
Contribution (%)
46.9
Total CVs
126,246
Contribution (%)
66.1
Cars
53,486
Contribution (%)
28.0
UVs
11,168
Contribution (%)
5.9
Total Volumes
190,900
* Including sale of FIAT vehicles
10 August 2012
4

Tata Motors
Standalone Quarterly Performance
Y/E March
1Q
CV's
125,969
Change (%)
14.6
PV's
71,637
Change (%)
(10.9)
Total Volumes (nos) 197,606
Change (%)
3.8
Average Realization 585,076
Change (%)
7.6
Net Sales
115,615
Change (%)
11.7
Other Operating Inc.
647
RM/Sales (%)
70.8
Staff Costs/Sales (%)
5.3
OE/Sales (%)
15.1
EBITDA
10,222
EBITDA Margins (%)
8.8
Non-Operating Inc.
1,774
Interest
3,150
Deprec. & Amort.
3,651
Product Dev. Expenses 536
PBT before EO Exp
4,658
EO Exp/(Inc)
-24
PBT after EO Exp
4,683
Tax
650
Effective Tax Rate (%) 13.9
PAT
4,033
Change (%)
2
Adj PAT
4,012
Change (%)
-9.5
E: MOSL Estimates
FY12
2Q
3Q
144,514 143,642
17.9
12.4
66,886 87,686
(21.5)
32.2
211,400 231,328
1.8
19.2
609,564 573,327
13.1
-0.8
128,862 132,627
15.1
18.2
676
753
73.9
73.9
5.3
5.2
13.6
14.1
9,331
8,972
7.2
6.7
568
1,326
2,121
2,936
3,869
4,213
602
454
3,307
2,695
2,942
833
365
1,862
-655
125
-179.5
6.7
1,020
1,737
-76
-58
3,063
2,513
-28.7
-42.0
FY13
4Q
171,165
15.0
114,854
19.4
286,019
16.7
569,792
-2.2
162,971
14.2
936
73.4
4.2
12.8
15,613
9.5
1,343
3,249
4,334
750
8,623
2,102
6,521
868
13.3
5,653
-1
7,475
19.4
1Q
126,246
0.2
64,654
(9.7)
190,900
-3.4
550,584
-5.9
105,106
-9.1
758
70.2
6.7
15.8
7,744
7.3
4,471
3,192
4,294
746
3,983
1,610
2,373
320
13.5
2,053
-49
3,446
-14.1
2Q
150,083
3.9
76,908
15.0
226,991
7.4
555,536
-8.9
126,102
-2.1
650
72.3
5.8
13.6
10,627
8.4
13,150
3,200
4,350
650
15,577
0
15,577
2,804
18.0
12,773
1,152
12,773
317.0
3Q
164,500
14.5
87,500
(0.2)
252,000
8.9
560,412
-2.3
141,224
6.5
700
73.0
5.3
13.9
11,037
7.8
1,200
3,225
4,500
550
3,962
0
3,962
713
18.0
3,249
87
3,249
29.3
4Q
182,998
6.9
101,852
(11.3)
284,851
-0.4
606,368
6.4
172,724
6.0
936
73.2
4.5
12.8
16,563
9.5
1,167
3,178
4,686
795
9,070
0
9,070
1,740
19.2
7,330
30
7,330
-1.9
FY12
FY13E
(INR Million)
FY13
1QE
126,634
0.5
62,140
-13
188,774
-4.5
572,174
-4.5
108,012
-8.7
700
73.2
6.4
14.9
5,954
5.5
1,600
3,150
4,350
450
-396
0
-396
-71
18.0
-325
-108.1
-325
-108.1
Var
(%)
(0)
4
1
-4
-3
8
-300bp
30bp
90bp
30
180bp
179
1
-1
66
-1,105
-699
-549
-450bp
-732
-1,160
585,054 624,215
337,813 328,400
922,867 952,616
10.4
3.2
585,192 572,273
4.4
-2.2
540,054 545,156
15.3
0.9
3,012
3,043
72.0
72.4
5.0
5.4
13.8
13.9
44,118 45,971
8.1
8.4
5,741 19,988
12,186 12,796
16,067 17,830
2,343
2,741
19,263 32,592
5,852
1,610
13,410 30,982
988
5,577
7.4
18.0
12,422 25,406
-31
105
17,844 26,725
-7.7
49.8
Trend in Standalone Realizations (INR '000/unit)
Trend in Standalone EBITDA
Source: Company, MOSL
10 August 2012
5

Tata Motors
Other highlights
JLR announced its maiden dividend (post acquisition) of GBP150m (~INR13b) in
Aug-12. This along with cashflow from redemption of JLR's preference share of
~INR13.8b, TTMT redeemed its FCCB of USD623m/~INR35b (incl premium).
The consolidated automotive net debt stood at INR100b. However, post
repayment of FCCB in Aug-12, net debt is expected to reduce by ~INR26b.
JLR is awaiting regulatory approval for setting up a JV with for manufacturing
vehicles in China.
Downgrading FY13 estimates, but maintain FY14
Our consolidated FY13 EPS estimate has been downgraded by ~5% to INR33.5
(normal. EPS downgrade of 11% to INR14.7), due to increase in JLR's tax rate,
despite upgrade in EBITDA by 9%. However, FY14 estimates are unchanged as
upgrade in EBITDA & favourable Fx on JLR translation off-sets higher tax.
For JLR, we model volumes of ~365,000 units in FY13 (~16% growth) and ~399,000
units in FY13 (~9% growth). Our FY13 volume requires volume run-rate of 31,300
units/month. We estimate EBITDA margins of 14.3% (v/s 14.5% in 1QFY13) and PAT
of GBP1.2b in FY13.
Standalone estimates factor in for ~3% growth in volumes in FY13 and 14% in FY14,
with -7.5% growth for M&HCVs, ~15% for LCVs and -3% growth in PV volumes for
FY13. We estimate EBITDA margin to improve 30bp to ~8.4% (no change) for FY13.
Revised forecast (INR b)
Rev
Consolidated - Key Assumptions
Net Sales
1,956
EBITDA
268
EBITDA Margins (%)
13.7
Net Profit
111
Cons EPS
33.5
Normal. EPS
14.7
JLR - Key Assumptions (IFRS)
Volumes (‘000 units)
365
Normal. EBITDA
116
EBITDA Margins (%)
14.3
Net Profit
99
Standalone - Key Assumptions
Volumes (‘000 units)
953
EBITDA
46
EBITDA Margins (%)
8.4
Net Profit
27
FY13E
Old
1,956
245
12.5
117
35.2
16.6
365
107
14.0
105
970
46
8.1
17
Chg (%)
0.0
9.4
120bp
-4.8
-4.8
-11.4
0.0
7.7
30bp
-6.6
-1.8
-0.4
30bp
59.8
Rev
2,137
293
13.7
127
38.3
17.2
399
123
14.3
102
1,084
56
8.9
25
FY14E
Old
2,117
269
12.7
125
37.7
17.8
399
113
14.0
106
Chg (%)
1.0
9.1
100bp
1.5
1.4
-3.4
0.0
9.0
30bp
-3.7
1,084
0.0
56
-0.7
8.7
20bp
24
4.3
Source: Company, MOSL
10 August 2012
6

Tata Motors
Valuation and view
JLR's volume momentum is expected to remain strong, although there are
potential macro headwinds which can impact volumes in EU (~23% of volumes)
and China (~20%). Operating performance being highly sensitive to volumes, any
negative surprise on volumes would drive downgrades in estimates.
M&HCV volumes in domestic business are also expected to be under pressure for
at least another 6 months, impact of which would be diluted by strong LCV volume
growth.
The stock is currently trading at 7.1x FY13E consolidated EPS and 6.2x FY14E
consolidated EPS. The DVR stock trades at 3.9x FY13 and 3.4x FY14 consolidated
EPS.
Maintain
Buy
with revised TP of INR300 (FY14 SOTP based) for ordinary share and
INR180 for DVR (~40% discount to ordinary share's TP).
Tata Motors: Sum-of-the-parts (INR b)
Valuation Parameter
Tata Motors - Standalone
EV/EBITDA
JLR (Adj for R&D capitalization)
EV/EBITDA
HV Axles
EV/EBITDA
HV Transmission
EV/EBITDA
Tata Technologies
EV/EBITDA
Tata Daewoo
EV/EBITDA
Total EV
Less: Net Debt (Ex FCCB & TMFL)
Add: Other Investments
Tata Motors Finance
P/BV
Other Associates/JVs
Carrying Cost
Tata Sons
20% discount to mkt value
Total Equity Value
Fair Value (INR/Sh) - Ord Sh
Fully Diluted
Upside (%)
Fair Value (INR/Sh) - DVR
@ 40% discount
Upside (%)
Multiple (x)
7
4
4
4
4
4
FY13E
322
570
9
8
10
10
930
115
23
15
50
903
272
0.5
163
23.9
FY14E
390
610
10
9
12
13
1,044
139
25
15
50
996
300
10.9
180
36.7
Source: MOSL
1
10 August 2012
7

Tata Motors
Tata Motors: an investment profile
Company description
Tata Motors (TTMT) is the largest commercial vehicle
manufacturer in India, with 60% market share in MHCVs
and 63% market share in LCVs. It also manufactures
passenger cars and utility vehicles. In FY09, it acquired
Jaguar and Land Rover (JLR) from Ford for USD2.5b. In FY11,
JLR contributed 63% of TTMT's consolidated revenue and
~79% of profit. This coupled with Tata Daewoo, makes
TTMT a global player in the automobile industry.
EU/UK and China (~60% of JLR volumes) and adverse
forex movement could adversely impact JLR's
profitability.
Higher interest rates, diesel prices and slowdown in
the economy would impact CV demand in India.
Recent developments
JLR announced its maiden dividend (post acquisition)
of GBP150m (~INR13b) in Aug-12.
Key investment arguments
We expect JLR volumes to remain robust, driven by
continuing momentum Evoque and ramp up of
operations in China, its most profitable market. We
factor in 16% volume growth to ~365,000 units in
FY13.
Improving market mix, internal cost efficiencies and
sourcing from low cost countries would dilute higher
cost pressures on JLR. We expect JLR's EBITDA margin
to remain stable at 14.3% in FY13.
Demand for LCVs in India is likely to remain robust,
while M&HCV & PV is expected to witness slowdown
in demand. We model volume growth of 6.7% for
the CV business in FY13.
Valuation and view
The stock is currently trading at 7.1x FY13E
consolidated EPS and 6.2x FY14E consolidated EPS.
Maintain
Buy
with revised TP of INR300 (FY14 SOTP
based) for ordinary share.
Sector view
Passenger vehicle segment is expected to continue
its growth momentum. With low car penetration
levels in India, the upside potential for growth is
tremendous.
M&CV volumes in domestic business are also
expected to be under pressure for at least another
3-6 months, impact of which would be diluted by
strong LCV volume growth.
JLR volumes are expected to remain strong over long
term driven by strong growth in US, China and Russia.
EPS: MOSL forecast v/s consensus (INR)
MOSL
Consensus
Forecast
forecast
FY13
FY14
34.0
38.8
39.7
43.9
Key investments risks
Scaling up volumes of Jaguar in a highly competitive
luxury car segment. Also, slowdown in demand in
TML
M&M
11.8
9.0
14.5
10.6
21.5
19.3
7.1
6.3
Maruti
15.6
11.3
29.4
38.3
11.5
14.0
6.8
4.6
Comparative valuations
P/E (x)
EPS Gr (%)
RoE (%)
EV/EBITDA (x)
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
FY13E
FY14E
16.2
13.9
22.9
14.1
26.6
24.2
3.6
3.3
Variation
(%)
-14.3
-11.5
Target price and recommendation
Current
Price (INR)
239
Target
Price (INR)
300
Upside
(%)
25.5
Reco.
Buy
Stock performance (1 year)
Shareholding pattern (%)
Mar-12
Promoter
Domestic Inst
Foreign
Others
10 August 2012
34.9
12.7
44.5
7.9
Dec-11
35.1
14.3
42.1
8.5
Mar-11
34.9
12.7
44.7
7.8
8

Tata Motors
Financials and Valuation
10 August 2012
9

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