6 November 2012
2QFY13 Results Update | Sector: Technology
Tech Mahindra
BSE SENSEX
S&P CNX
18,763
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1,6,12 Rel. Perf. (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
5,704
TECHM IN
127.6
1,043/537
2/29/46
121.9
2.2
CMP: INR955
TP: INR1,150
Buy
# Reported PAT incl Satyam; * EPS incl profits from Satyam, adjusted for restructuring charge
2QFY13 operating performance better than expected:
Tech Mahindra (TECHM) posted better than expected
operating results for 2QFY13 on strong traction in non-BT revenue, though BT revenue declined 3.8% QoQ.
Revenue grew 6.4% QoQ to USD299m (v/s our estimate of USD294m). Organic growth in non-BT business was
4.8% QoQ, while the acquisition of Hutchison Global Services (HGS) contributed USD13.3m.
EBITDA margin at 20.7%, higher than our estimate of 18.9%:
EBITDA margin contracted 70bp QoQ to 20.7%,
higher than our estimate of 18.9% despite headwinds from salary hikes (-150bp impact) and HGS integration
(-30bp impact). PAT was largely in-line at INR17.7b, as higher operating margin and lower tax rate (12% v/s our
estimate of 23%) were offset by higher forex losses.
Further declines possible in BT revenue:
The management cited possibility of further declines in BT on
continued restructuring activity. Outside BT, TECHM closed two large deals in Europe during the quarter, and
is chasing a few more (TCV of USD50m-150m each). However, deal closures are taking longer than it expected.
Cutting USD revenue estimates:
We have moderated our USD revenue assumptions for FY13 / FY14 by 3% /
5.7% after factoring in: [1] some declines in the BT account, going forward, and [2] delay in the integration of
Comviva acquisition (impacting FY13 revenue).
Upgrading consolidated EPS estimates:
Sustaining current margins will be challenging post full quarter revenue
from HGS, and stronger growth from lower-margin emerging geographies. Accordingly, we have modeled
lower margins but our revised estimates are still higher by 127bp / 116bp for FY13 / FY14, after lower-than-
expected wage hike and higher-than-anticipated gains from cost optimization. This, along with 3.3% / 2.2%
upgrade in our EPS estimates for Satyam drives 2.8%/3.5% upgrade in our consolidated EPS estimates.
Buy with a target price of INR1,150:
We expect TECHM to post USD revenue CAGR of 12% and EPS CAGR of 22%
over FY12-14.
Buy
with a target price of INR1,150 (11x FY14E EPS).
Ashish Chopra
(Ashish.Chopra@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5424
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.