31 January 2013
3QFY13 Results Update |
Sector: Real Estate
Godrej Properties
BSE Sensex
20,005
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap. (INR b)/(USD b)
52-Week Range
1,6,12 Rel. Perf. (%)
S&P CNX
6,056
GPL IN
78.0
49.1/0.9
696/482
-4/6/-21
CMP: INR629
TP: INR650
Neutral
Financials & Valuation (INR m)
Y/E March
Net Sales
EBITDA
NP
EPS (INR)
EPS Gr. (%)
BV/Sh. (INR)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
Payout (%)
Valuations
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
Div. Yield (%)
2013E 2014E 2015E
10,100 13,569 16,414
2,681
1,267
16.2
29.4
197.6
8.5
7.9
21.6
38.7
3.2
24.6
0.5
3,788
2,000
25.6
57.8
219.7
12.3
11.4
13.7
24.6
2.9
17.5
0.5
4,706
2,635
33.8
31.8
250.0
14.4
13.3
10.4
18.6
2.5
13.9
0.5
Godrej Properties' 3QFY13 revenue stood at INR2.7b (+78% YoY, +14% QoQ),
EBITDA at INR751m (+181% YoY, +5% QoQ), and PAT at INR355m (+24% YoY,
+9% QoQ). Key revenue contributors are: (1) Godrej One (35%), (2) GGC,
Ahmedabad (18%), (3) Prakriti, Kolkata (13%) and (4) Revenue
commencement from Palm Groves, Chennai (11%).
Recent launches in Bangalore E-city (22% of total 3QFY13 sales value), Gurgaon
(12%) and Godrej Platinum (25%) drew decent response, and led GPL's 1msf
(INR6.5b) sales in 3QFY13 v/s 1.1msf (INR7.2b) in 2QFY13. Godrej One
commercial accounted for INR1.1b of fresh sales in 3QFY13.
GPL's 9MFY13 sales (ex Platinum) stood at INR16.4b; our estimate of ~INR23b
for FY13 hinges on the success of guided launch plan in 4QFY13.
GPL has witnessed ~25% QoQ uptick in average realizations in Gurgaon and
Pune projects and 10-15% in Platinum (Vikhroli).
GPL maintained positive operating cash flow (OCF) in 3QFY13 as against
expectation - since the company was due to pay MMRDA premium of ~INR1.5b
in 3QFY13. However the payment has been deferred to CY13 end, which led
to generation of INR1.6b of OCF.
Positive OCF has been utilized towards interest payment of INR520m and
reduction in net debt of ~INR1.05b. Net debt stood at ~INR15.1b (v/s INR16.1b
2QFY13) - implying net DER of 0.99x. Cost of debt stood at 11.77% as against
11.83% in 2QFY13.
Valuation and view
Recent scale-up in launches and steady sales have led to generation of
positive OCF for the company, which lends comfort over possible moderation
in leverage over FY14-15.
Key triggers going forward: a) Success in stated launch plan, b) Monetization
visibility in BKC commercial, and c) potential upside from increase in FSI in
Panvel project.
GPL trades at ~3% discount to NAV, 18.6x FY15E EPS and 2.5x FY15E BV. Maintain
Neutral.
Sandipan Pal
(Sandipan.Pal@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5436
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.