Tuesday, April 02, 2013
Commodity
Gold / USD Spot
Silver / USD Spot
Crude oil $ Spot
COMEX Copper $
LME Copper (3M)
LME Aluminum (3M)
LME Nickel (3M)
LME Lead (3M)
LME Zinc (3M)
Last
1598.4
28.01
97.1
343.5
7460
1900.5
16560
2103
1894
Chg
0.91
-0.31
-0.14
-1.9
-73.25
-2.5
-128
-4.25
-2
% Chg
0.06%
-1.09%
-0.14%
-0.55%
-0.96%
-0.13%
-0.76%
-0.20%
-0.10%
Market Overview (Economy)
Two major US manufacturing indices missed
expectations. The US PMI unexpectedly fell
to 54.6 from 54.9 in February. The ISM
manufacturing index fell to 51.3 from 54.2
last month
The dollar weakened against the yen before
data this week forecast to show the recovery
in the U.S. job market isn’t fast enough to
prompt
the Federal
Reserve to
reduce
monetary stimulus
Cyprus government officials will seek easier
bailout terms in talks with representatives of
the
European
Union
and International
Monetary Fund today, before a meeting of
euro-area finance officials later this week
Equity
BSE Sensex Index
S&P CNX NIFTY
Hang Seng Index
Shanghai Index
Nikkei 225 Index
DAX Index
CAC 40 Index
Dow Jones
NASDAQ 100 Index
Last
18864.8
5704.4
22299.6
2234.4
12135.0
7795.3
3731.4
14572.9
2797.1
Chg
29.0
21.8
-165.2
-2.2
-262.9
6.2
19.8
-5.7
-21.6
% Chg
0.2%
0.4%
-0.7%
-0.1%
-2.1%
0.1%
0.5%
0.0%
-0.8%
Precious Metals
Gold futures are trading modestly higher in
the early part of Asian trading, extending a
small gain from Monday’s US session
Gold moved slightly higher yesterday
following two mixed US data points. In the
US, the Institute for Supply Management's
March index fell to 51.3 from 54.2 in
February and construction spending rose
1.2% in February. The figures sent the
dollar falling on sentiments that the Fed
won't unwind its stimulus anytime soon
In gold, buying appetite remains firm in
China with some physical buying helping to
underpin demand after prices fell below the
key psychological level of $1,600/oz
Gold prices are likely to trade with a
slightly positive bias as economic data
remains mixed. If prices sustain above
$1600, we expect them to test
$1608/1612 levels. The movement in
INR will also be closely watched as
markets open today after a long
holiday
1
Please refer to disclaimer at the end of the report.

Base Metals
Copper prices ended the day lower, under pressure by
lower than expected manufacturing data from the US and
China, clouding the hopes of a bettering economy
Manufacturing sector in the US expanded but slowly in
March while the employment gauge improved, boding well
ahead of the nonfarm payrolls at the end of the week
Meanwhile, the world’s largest Copper producer Codelco
said that workers at Radomiro Tomic copper mine have
agreed to lift their labor stoppage and return to work as the
conflict has ended
Other industrial metals ended in the green, even after
trading lackluster, as LME markets remained closed
yesterday and offered lesser liquidity
Even as LME markets were closed for a
long weekend, we witnessed high
volatility on the domestic exchange.
Fundamentally our stance continues to
remain bearish and rallies will attract
selling opportunities
LME Inventory
Commodity
Copper
Zinc
Lead
Nickel
Aluminium
Change
1875
-7175
-1750
768
6750
Source: Reuters
Energy
West Texas Intermediate crude slid for a second day amid
speculation that U.S. inventories climbed to the highest level in
more than 22 years. WTI for May delivery declined as much as
31 cents to $96.76 a barrel in electronic trading
The U.S. Supreme Court rejected an oil-industry challenge to
new clean-air standards that the Environmental Protection
Agency says will improve air quality around the nation’s
busiest roadways.
Natural gas futures declined in New York for a second day on
expectations that demand for heating fuels will ease with
milder U.S. weather. Natural gas May delivery settled at
$4.015 per million British thermal units
Natural Gas open interest on NYMEX is at all time high totaling
around 1.4 million contracts. The buildup is in line with
expectation of higher gas prices.
With oil prices declining for a second
day, $96 seems to be the immediate
support. Oil has failed to sustain
above $97, thus resulting in a narrow
trading range. The prices are
expected to slide downwards.
On MCX, Crude April contract is
expected to slide lower and test
previous low of Rs 5250, below which
a positional sell can be initiated
2
Please refer to disclaimer at the end of the report.

Level Playing Sheet
Commodity
Gold
Gold
Silver
Silver
Crude Oil
Crude Oil
Copper
Zinc
Lead
Nickel
Aluminum
Exchange
MCX
COMEX
MCX
COMEX
MCX
NYMEX
MCX
MCX
MCX
MCX
MCX
Expiry
June
May
May
May
April
April
April
April
April
April
April
Close
30027
1600.40
52725
27.94
5285
97.07
408.00
103.10
115.00
912.30
104.00
S2
29911.00
1592.40
52146.33
27.48
5163.00
95.05
402.60
101.63
113.33
903.23
102.73
S1
29969
1596
52436
27.72
5224
96
405
102
114
908
103
Pivot
30034
1599
52843
28.04
5308
97
408
103
115
911
104
R1
30092
1603
53133
28.27
5369
98
411
104
116
915
104
R2
30157
1605
53540
28.59
5453
99
413
104
116
918
105
Trend
Bearish
Bullish
Bearish
Bearish
Bearish
Bullish
Bearish
Flat
Flat
Flat
Flat
Conviction
Moderate
High
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Low
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Range
30125 - 30002
1604 - 1598
52988 - 52291
28.15 – 27.60
5339 - 5194
97 - 96
409 - 404
104 - 103
116 - 114
917 - 909
105 - 104
For any details contact:
Commodities Advisory Desk - +91 22 3958 3600
commoditiesresearch@motilaloswal.com
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