7 June 2013
Annual Report Update | Sector: Financials
HDFC Bank
BSE SENSEX
S&P CNX
19,519
5,921
CMP: INR683
TP: INR755
Neutral
The best keeps getting better
Growth mantra – branch expansion, deeper product penetration
We went through HDFC Bank’s (HDFCB) annual report for FY13. Our key takeaways:
Retail franchise continues to deliver excellent results. Retail loans and deposits grew
27% and 24% respectively. The proportion of retail business increased from 60% in
FY11 to 65% in FY12 and 67% in FY13.
For FY13, slippage ratio and credit cost were at decadal lows of 1% and 0.6%,
respectively. Including general and floating provisions, coverage ratio was 203%.
Outstanding floating provisions stood at INR18.35b (INR7.7/share, 5.1% of net worth).
The bank is focusing on India’s hinterland – 88% of its branch openings during the year
were in semi-urban and rural areas.
We believe operating leverage will provide strong cushion to earnings. While visibility
on core operating parameters and growth is high, valuations are rich. Maintain Neutral.
Bloomberg
HDFCB IN
Equity Shares (m)
2346.7
M.Cap. (INR b)/(USD b) 1615/28.6
52-Week Range (INR)
727/499
1,6,12 Rel. Perf. (%)
2/-1/15
Financials & Valuation (INR b)
Y/E March
NII
OP
NP
NIM (%)
EPS (INR)
EPS Gr. (%)
BV/Sh. (INR)
ABV/Sh. (INR)
RoE (%)
RoA (%)
Payout (%)
Valuations
P/E(X)
P/BV (X)
P/ABV (X)
Div. Yield (%)
2013 2014E 2015E
158.1 193.9 237.1
114.3 147.6 187.3
67.3
88.0 110.4
4.8
4.8
4.9
28.3
37.0
46.4
28.4
30.9
25.5
152.1 180.5 216.1
150.7 177.4 210.7
20.3
22.2
23.4
1.8
2.0
2.0
22.8
23.4
23.4
24.3
4.5
4.6
0.8
18.6
3.8
3.9
1.1
14.8
3.2
3.3
1.3
Focused retail strategy; liability profile improved further
Liability customer acquisition followed by exploitation of cross-selling
opportunities remains HDFCB’s key business strength. During the year, retail
loans grew 27% and retail deposits grew 24%. As at March 2013, retail deposits
constituted 75% of overall deposits, up from 72% a year ago (67% in FY11), led by
28% growth in retail term deposits (partially cannibalizing savings deposits, which
grew 19%). Fees earned from cross-selling third-party products grew 6% and
accounted for 15% of overall fees (stable YoY), down from 24% in FY11.
Aggressive franchise expansion – banking on India’s hinterland
During the year, the number of branches grew 20% to 3,062 (now just 40 branches
behind ICICIBC) and ATMs grew 21% to 10,743 (almost equal to AXSB and ICICIBC).
Presence in terms of number of cities in India increased 32% during FY13 and
5.6x over FY08. Of the 518 new branches in FY13, 193 were micro branches (2-3
member branches). 88% of the branches opened during the year were in rural
and semi-urban areas. Total customer base increased by 2.7m (10% growth) to
~28.7m in FY13 and has more than doubled in the last five years. Nevertheless,
customer acquisition has slowed from ~5m in FY12. The number of debit cards
increased ~12% in FY13 (15% CAGR over FY09-13) to 15.8m and the number of
credit card customers grew ~10% to 6.4m.
Shareholding pattern %
As on
Mar-13 Dec-12 Mar-12
Promoter
22.9
23.0
23.2
Dom. Inst
8.6
8.9
10.5
Foreign
51.7
51.4
48.8
Others
16.9
16.8
17.5
A third of HDFCB’s branches are less than 24 months old and a large part of its
branch expansion has happened in rural and semi-urban areas, where breakeven
period is 24-30 months. Strong expansion in the hinterland will not only help in
customer acquisition and product penetration, but also to meet priority sector
targets (already achieved 40%, overall). Deeper product penetration in mature
branches will lead to higher growth. While credit cost and slippages are at cyclical
lows, higher base on account of floating provisions provides strong cushion to
earnings. Visibility on core operating parameters and growth remains high;
however, this is adequately discounted in the rich valuations. Maintain
Neutral.
Alpesh Mehta
(Alpesh.Mehta@MotilalOswal.com) +91 22 3982 5415
1
Sohail Halai
(Sohail.Halai@motilaloswal.com) +91 22 3982 5430
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
Stock performance (1 year)
Operating leverage, mix change to drive earnings growth