Wednesday, June 26, 2013
Commodity
Gold / USD Spot
Silver / USD Spot
Crude oil $ Spot
COMEX Copper $
LME Copper (3M)
LME Aluminum (3M)
LME Nickel (3M)
LME Lead (3M)
LME Zinc (3M)
Last
1276.74
19.58
95.25
343.5
6723
1775
13761
2040.75
1839
Chg
-4.55
-0.07
0.18
-1.9
-44.5
-3
-139
-9.25
-7.25
% Chg
-0.36%
-0.36%
0.19%
-0.55%
-0.66%
-0.17%
-1.02%
-0.46%
-0.40%
Market Overview (Economy)
Asian markets are positive in early trade
after better economic data yesterday and
precious metals continue to selloff as safe
haven demand wanes
Durable goods orders jumped 3.6% in
May, home prices jumped 12.1% year-
over-year and Consumer confidence in the
U.S. surged to 81.4
The People’s Bank of China said it will use
tools to ensure money-market stability
and this has helped reduce concerns over
the cash crunch in China
Equity
BSE Sensex Index
S&P CNX NIFTY
Hang Seng Index
Shanghai Index
Nikkei 225 Index
DAX Index
CAC 40 Index
Dow Jones
NASDAQ 100 Index
Last
18629.2
5609.1
19855.7
1959.5
12969.3
7811.3
3649.8
14760.3
2866.5
Chg
88.3
18.9
41.7
-3.7
-93.4
118.9
54.2
100.8
18.3
% Chg
0.5%
0.3%
0.2%
-0.2%
-0.7%
1.5%
1.5%
0.7%
0.6%
Precious Metals
Gold and silver plunged to their lowest in
almost 3 years as U.S. economic data beat
estimates, backing the case for reduced
stimulus
The dollar strengthened and Treasuries
fell, pushing 10-year yields toward the
highest since 2011 as safe haven appeal
keeps diminishing
Assets in the SPDR Gold Trust, fell by
16.23 tons to 969.5 metric tons yesterday,
and are 28% lower this year. Holdings of
the world's largest silver-backed ETP’s
have fallen their most in a year
In its latest move to discourage gold
buying, the RBI restricted rural regional
banks from giving loans against gold
jewellery and coins and this will continue
to hit gold demand
The precious metals selloff has gained
momentum yet again after all economic
data in the U.S. beat estimates and the
rout will continue as ETP holdings
continue to fall and physical demand
shows no signs of improvement. The next
major support for gold could come around
$1200-1185 level and silver could find
support in the $18.5-17.3 range
1
Please refer to disclaimer at the end of the report.

Base Metals
Industrial metals closed higher yesterday, underpinned
by assurances by the Chinese central bank over a credit
crunch
The Chinese Central Bank (PBOC) is expected to guide
the market rates to reasonable levels. It expects
seasonal factors to gradually fade, especially the one
that caused a recent spike in interbank market rates
On the US data front, sales of new homes spiked to
their highest in nearly five years in May which is
supportive for industrial metals, especially copper
A host of foreign banks cut their forecasts for copper
prices yesterday and expectations for the year end are
now averaging between $7200-$7500 on the LME
After hitting $6600 for copper and 4 year
lows for nickel, prices bounced back
sharply as the Shanghai equity markets
recovered improving sentiments
momentarily. Overall, weakness in base
metals will continue and push the prices to
new lows. INR will continue to lend
support to the falling prices
LME Inventory
Commodity
Copper
Zinc
Lead
Nickel
Aluminium
Change
-3375
2550
-1675
-114
4950
Source: Reuters
Energy
WTI declined from a three-day peak after an industry
report showed crude stockpiles in the U.S. remained near
the highest level in more than 30 years
The crude oil had rallied in earlier session on back of better
than expected New home sales and Consumer confidence
numbers, but the oil gave up its gains in early Asian
session on back of dollar strengthening
EIA report releasing later tonight has forecasted a
drawdown of 1.7 million barrels, the volatility in stock
arrival has increased in last 6 counts and can severely
affect crude oil price gyrations as near term volatility
expands
On the MCX, Natural gas moved in
tandem with Nymex prices, the weak
home currency also aided crude oil in
sustaining gains, though crude oil
remain in structural spike in price due to
existing bottle necks cannot be ruled out.
5650 remains an important support
below which crude can weaken
significantly, risky traders can assume
short position below this handle
Level Playing Sheet
2
Please refer to disclaimer at the end of the report.

Commodity
Gold
Gold
Silver
Silver
Crude Oil
Crude Oil
Copper
Zinc
Lead
Nickel
Aluminum
Exchange
MCX
COMEX
MCX
COMEX
MCX
NYMEX
MCX
MCX
MCX
MCX
MCX
Expiry
August
August
July
July
July
August
June
June
June
June
June
Close
26559
1275
40663
19.53
5692
95.32
403.45
108.25
122.10
826.60
103.75
S2
26352
1260
40016
19.18
5621
93.78
387.55
105.22
116.43
792.53
101.92
S1
26456
1268
40339
19.35
5656
94.55
395.50
106.73
119.27
809.57
102.83
Pivot
26615
1278
40684
19.57
5702
95.36
401.25
107.92
121.03
822.13
103.92
R1
26719
1286
41007
19.74
5737
96.13
409.20
109.43
123.87
839.17
104.83
R2
26878
1297
41352
19.96
5783
96.94
414.95
110.62
125.63
851.73
105.92
Trend
Bearish
Bearish
Bearish
Bearish
Bullish
Flat
Bearish
Bearish
Flat
Flat
Bearish
Conviction
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Low
Low
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Range
26404 - 26667
1264 - 1282
40178 - 40846
19.27 - 19.66
5639 - 5720
95 - 96.5
398.4 - 412.1
107.3 - 110
120.2 - 124.8
816 - 845
103.4 - 105.4
For any details contact:
Commodities Advisory Desk - +91 22 3958 3600
commoditiesresearch@motilaloswal.com
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