3 July 2013
Annual Report Update | Capital Goods
Cummins India
BSE SENSEX
S&P CNX
19,464
5,858
CMP: INR451
TP: INR570
Buy
Exports / Distribution: Key growth drivers
Important beneficiary of currency movements
Key takeaways from FY13 Annual Report:
Commissioning of Parts Distribution Centre and HHP Recon centre at Phaltan Megasite
has led to improved component exports and increased distribution revenues.
Commissioning of the HHP rebuild centre in the SEZ in end 2013 will enable
reconditioning of Cummins gensets in other regions.
During FY13, new line was added in the Consumer Business sector by offering
automotive, industrial and power generation batteries, which also supported growth.
Three new training facilities commissioned in FY13 will enable to strengthen the
channel network and also improve distribution business revenues.
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap. (INR b)/(USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1,6,12 Rel. Perf. (%)
KKC IN
277.2
125.0/2.1
550/419
0/-12/-11
Financials & Valuation (INR b)
Y/E March
Net Sales
EBITDA
Adj PAT
EPS (INR)
EPS Gr. (%)
BV/Sh. (INR)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
Payout (%)
Valuations
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
Div Yield (%)
2013 2014E 2015E
45.9
8.3
6.6
23.8
20.1
87.3
29.7
29.8
58.9
18.9
5.2
13.9
2.7
49.7 56.2
9.1 10.5
7.0
8.1
25.3 29.3
6.2 15.6
97.4 109.7
27.4 28.3
27.6 28.4
60.1 58.0
17.8
4.6
12.9
2.9
15.4
4.1
11.1
3.2
Capacity addition at Megasite in Phaltan to drive business expansion:
Five
Cummins group facilities have been commissioned at the Megasite, while LHP
manufacturing facility / HHP rebuild centre in SEZ will be commissioned in 2013.
These have opened up interesting growth avenues in terms of components
exports and increased distribution revenues. Commissioning of LHP exports
facility in early 2013 is again important as this could potentially become an INR10b
business opportunity (v/s INR3.9b in FY13); while commissioning of the HHP
rebuild centre in the SEZ in end 2013 will enable reconditioning of Cummins
gensets in other regions.
Distribution business: emerging opportunities, strengthening channels:
During
FY13, new line was added in the Consumer Business sector by offering
automotive, industrial and power generation batteries, which also supported
growth. Three new training facilities - the Global Training Center at Greater
Noida, the Comprehensive Technical Training facility in Pune and the Chhindwara
Center of Excellence in Madhya Pradesh has been opened during FY13 and the
management expects additional revenue and profitability through improved
customer support and enhanced technical capabilities.
Exports: New geographies / New products / Components:
During FY13, KKC
identified new business opportunities for Heavy Duty and High Horsepower
Engines and Parts exports. The company started export of components to various
engine manufacturing facilities and after markets across regions. This helped
compensate part of the loss in revenue due to decline in volumes in global
engine demand. To add new geographies, KKC supplied its first engines to Latin
America which will help consolidate and diversify regional business risk.
Valuation and view:
We model EBITDA margins at 18.3% in FY14E/18.7% in FY15E
(v/s 16.8% in 4QFY13), and expect KKC to report an EPS of INR25.3 in FY14E/
INR29.3 in FY15E. Post 4Q results, the stock has corrected by ~13% and we believe
that this provides an opportunity to accumulate. Maintain
Buy.
Shareholding pattern %
As on
Mar-13 Dec-12 Mar-12
Promoter
51.0
51.0
51.0
Dom. Inst 19.8
21.7
21.0
Foreign
15.8
13.2
13.6
Others
13.4
14.2
14.5
Stock performance (1 year)
Satyam Agarwal
(AgarwalS@MotilalOswal.com) +91 22 3982 5410
Deepak Narnolia
(Deepak.Narnolia@MotilalOswal.com) \
Nirav Vasa
(Nirav.Vasa@MotilalOswal.com)
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
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