24 July 2013
Annual Report Update | Sector: Real Estate
DLF
BSE SENSEX
S&P CNX
19,958
6,009
CMP: INR177
TP: INR246
Buy
Behemoth moves… but hits roadblocks
Strategy and risk management framework in place, but headwinds likely
to make recovery long drawn
Bloomberg
DLFUIN
Equity Shares (m)
1,714.4
M.Cap. (INR b)/(USD b) 301.9/5.1
52-Week Range (INR)
289/161
1,6,12 Rel. Perf. (%)
-11/-25/-31
Financials & Valuation (INR b)
Y/E March
2013 2014E 2015E
Net Sales
77.7
90.1
98.6
EBITDA
26.3
34.1
39.6
Adj PAT
7.1
7.4
12.7
EPS (INR)
4.2
4.2
7.1
EPS Gr. (%)
-40.8
-0.8
71.6
BV/Sh. (INR) 152.9 158.2 155.2
RoE (%)
2.6
2.6
4.2
RoCE (%)
6.0
5.8
6.9
Payout (%)
55.8
56.3
32.8
Valuations
P/E (x)
40.5
40.8
23.8
P/BV (x)
1.1
1.1
1.1
EV/EBITDA (x) 19.2
14.4
12.3
Div. Yield (%)
1.2
1.2
1.2
DLF's annual report highlights various operational and regulatory challenges creating
hurdles for immediate fruition of its recently adopted business strategies targeted at
consolidation of core operations, balance sheet, cash flow maximization and propel
long term growth.
Continuation of weak operations (lower launches, pre-sales, margin contraction),
partially ameliorated by improvement in execution resulted in core FCFE of negative
INR17.4b (v/s negative INR21.6b in FY12). Hence, the net debt decline of INR8.3b YoY
looks meager compared to divestments of INR31.6b.
Dev Co revenue declined sharply due to changes in accounting practice and operational
slippages, leading to further weakening in capital efficiencies.
Recovery contingent on various operational improvements and deleveraging. We
maintain a cautious Buy, with a reduced target price of INR246 (10% discount to NAV).
Operational slippages and accounting adjustments wane P&L
Dissecting DLF's P&L among asset classes, we estimate Dev Co revenue fell 36%
YoY to INR39b (CAGR of -18% over FY09-13) along with 8.3pp YoY reduction in
operating margins. Rent Co revenue growth moderated sharply to 7% YoY (21% in
FY12, CAGR of 34% over FY09-13). Disappointment in Dev Co was driven by (a)
weak recent operations (pre-sales fell 28%/20% YoY in FY13/12) and (b) changes
in POCM accounting practice, which delayed revenue recognition from recent
launches. Rent Co weakness was attributable to muted leasing (coupled with
cancellations) and few divestments concluded in 2HFY12 (IT Park Pune, Noida).
Capital efficiency (RoCE calculated on segmental EBITDA) of Rent Co remains
subdued (albeit improves 0.6pp YoY to ~6.5%) due to higher CWIP and DAL assets
being carried at high book value. RoCE for Dev Co plunged sharply by 3.5pp YoY to
8.5%, impacted by lower asset turn (slippages in launch target, change in
accounting) and margin contraction.
Shareholding pattern %
As on
Mar-13 Dec-12 Mar-12
Promoter
78.6
78.6
78.6
Dom. Inst
0.3
1.0
0.3
Foreign
16.7
15.0
15.6
Others
4.4
5.5
5.5
Core FCFE at high negative, divestment success fails to bring down leverage
Slippages in launches (4.3msf v/s target of 8msf) translated into a sharp decline
in pre-sales (-28% YoY) and procrastinated revival in operating cash flow (OCF);
albeit construction outsourcing drove execution improvement and better
customer collections (~INR63b v/s INR50b in FY12). We estimate FY13 core OCF at
INR31b (28% YoY) and core FCFE of negative INR17.4b (-INR21.6b in FY12), further
impacted by (1) higher capex (~INR10b v/s INR5b in FY12), (2) interest outgo
(INR32b v/s INR30b in FY12) and (3) tax payment of INR9.4b (much higher than
P&L provision of INR1.3b). Thus, the net debt decline of INR8.3b YoY looks meager
compared to divestments of INR31.6b (v/s INR17.7b in FY12). Dev Co net leverage
of INR125b (adjusted for 6x Rent Co EBITDA) continues to stand at discomforting
level of 6.25x P&L EBITDA (or 4.7x cash EBITDA) - the recovery hinges on
operational break-even (expected by FY15) and success in deleveraging (QIP,
wind deals and clarity on Aman Resort transaction).
1
Stock performance (1 year)
Investors are advised to refer
through disclosures made at the end
of the Research Report.
Sandipan Pal
(Sandipan.Pal@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5436