12 August 2013
1QFY14Results Update | Sector:
Healthcare
Cipla
BSE SENSEX
18,947
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel.Per (%)
S&P CNX
5,612
CIPLA IN
802.9
435/347
8/9/11
CMP: INR415
TP: INR425
Neutral
M.Cap. (INR b) / (USD b) 333.2/5.5
Financials & Valuation (INR b)
Y/E MAR
Sales
EBITDA
Net Profit
Adj. EPS
BV/Sh.
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
2013
82.8
22.0
13.1
16.4
112.2
14.6
20.4
25.3
3.7
2014E 2015E
100.6
23.0
15.1
18.8
14.6
127.5
14.7
18.5
22.1
3.3
115.5
25.9
17.0
21.2
13.1
144.0
14.7
19.1
19.5
2.9
EPS Gr. (%) 16.9
Reported revenue grew 26% YoY to INR24.6b (v/s est. of INR21.9b), reported
EBITDA grew 25% YoY to INR6.75b (v/s est. of INR5.1b) and reported PAT grew
18% to INR4.75b (v/s est. of INR3.4b).
Growth was driven by domestic sales, up 18% YoY (v/s est. of flat growth), and 4x
growth YoY in other operating income (v/s est. of 26%), which included a one-
time milestone payment from Meda for Dymista (not quantified, but we estimate
it at ~USD20-22m).
Reported EBITDA margin was down mere 20bp YoY to 27.4% (v/s est. 23.3%) due
to the licensing income, adjusted for which margins are in line with estimates.
Adjusted for one-off sales in 1QFY13 and the licensing income this quarter, we
estimate that core sales grew 34% YoY (v/s est. 25%), core EBITDA grew 32% YoY
(v/s est. of 23%) and adjusted PAT grew 24% YoY (v/s est. of 12%).
FY14 guidance:
Management has guided for 14-15% sales growth (organic) for
FY14, driven by export formulations. Domestic formulations’ growth is pegged at
12-14% after considering 2-3% impact of the new drug policy. Without giving any
specific guidance on the EBITDA margin, management indicated that profitability
may be impacted by higher R&D expenses (guided at 4-5% of sales) and higher
staff costs. Tax rate is guided at 25%, while capex will be INR4b (apart from the
addition of INR1.5-2b from CWIP).
Post 1QFY14 earnings, we upgrade EPS estimates for FY14E/15E by 4% to reflect the
benefit from Cipla Medpro acquisition, which is partially offset by expected negative
impact of DPCO 2013. Factors driving performance in 1QFY14 are also non-recurring
in nature. The coming quarters will be challenging for Cipla due to the impact from
new pricing policy and increasing pressure on profitability due to rising manpower,
R&D and interest costs. We estimate core EPS of INR18.8 for FY14E (up 15% YoY) and
INR21.2 for FY15E (up 13% YoY). The stock trades at 22.1x FY14E and 19.5x FY15E
earnings. We maintain
Neutral
with a revised target price of INR425 (20x FY15E EPS).
Alok Dalal(Alok.Dalal@MotilalOswal.com);+91
22 3982 5584
Hardick Bora(Hardick.Bora@MotilalOswal.com);+91
22 3982 5423
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.