29 August 2013
Annual Report Update | Sector: Capital Goods
Larsen & Toubro
BSE SENSEX
S&P CNX
17,996
5,285
CMP: INR705
Tale of half full or half empty
TP: INR1,000
Buy
Analyzing 2,564 pages of subsidiary accounts
Investment in subsidiaries was curtailed at INR14b in FY13, vs INR21b YoY; and we
expect the quantum to increase to INR27b / INR23b in FY14 / FY15 respectively.
Lower investments in FY13 was supported by i) Net funding of just INR7.6b in Infra
concession (adjusted for INR1.8b of NCDs) vs average INR19b each in FY11/FY12
given the debt drawal schedules, limited progress on large projects, etc ii) INR3.7b
in property development vs INR10.4b in FY12; as Seawoods raised debt of INR6b.
Reported profits by subsidiaries was largely stable at INR6.8b in FY13 (vs INR6.3b in
FY12) and is being supported by service businesses (IT and Finance). Net loss in asset
development increased to INR5.2b in FY13, vs INR3.1b in FY12 and is impacted by i)
poor toll collections for recently commissioned projects at just 5-6% of the project
cost ii) provision for diminution in investments etc of INR1.4b in property
development business. Power BTG reported profits of INR520, but was supported
by gains on embedded derivatives / provision write backs of INR1.1b.
For L&T, subsidiaries are expected to contribute 45% of the net worth and 37% of
Capital Employed, but just 5% of the consolidated profits in FY14. L&T's consolidated
RoE has deteriorated significantly from 31% in FY07 to 16% in FY13. Correcting the
capital structure and improving RoEs are important medium term stock triggers.
Manufacturing business (BTG, ship building, forgings) provides interesting long term
opportunities.
We are cutting estimates 9%/4% respectively for FY14/15 to factor in constrained
revenues for toll road projects, manufacturing businesses, etc. Maintain Buy, with
revised SOTP based price target of INR1,000/sh. L&T remains amongst our top picks
in Indian Capital goods sector.
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap. (INR b)/(USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1,6,12 Rel. Perf. (%)
LT IN
923.1
650.8/9.6
1,146/678
-8/-18/-24
Financials & Valuation (INR b)
Y/E March
2013 2014E 2015E
Sales
614.7 664.8 745.5
EBITDA
63.9
67.3
77.5
Adj PAT *
49.3
44.4
54.3
EPS (INR)*
53.4
48.1
58.8
EPS Gr. (%)
2.8
-9.9
22.2
BV/Sh (INR) 315.7 348.3 387.5
RoE (%)
16.2
14.2
14.9
RoCE (%)
14.4
12.2
12.9
Payout (%)
24.9
32.9
32.3
Valuations
P/E (x)*
18.3
14.7
12.0
P/BV (x)
3.1
2.0
1.8
EV/EBITDA (x) 14.4
10.4
9.1
Div Yield (%)
1.3
2.0
2.3
*Cons; Price as on 28 Aug 2013
Consolidated RoE's have declined from peak levels of 31% to 16% in FY13
INR M
FY12
FY13
FY14E
FY15E
Investment in Subsidiaries
126,140
140,264
167,219 190,282
Service Sector
23,413
23,278
24,028
24,778
Overseas E&C
11,474
11,474
11,474
11,474
30.7
Asset Development
69,784
79,995
102,839 121,151
Manufacturing sector
18,970
23,311
27,913
31,913
Profits in Subsidiaries (INR m)
6,325
6,773
5,302
9,806
Service Sector
6,850
12,680
12,092
14,284
Overseas E&C
1,571
789
1,652
1,981
Asset Development
-3,101
-5,221
-4,698
-4,531
Manufacturing sector
1,005
-1,475
-3,744
-1,928
Return on Investments (%)
5.5
5.1
3.4
5.5
Service Sector
26.5
54.3
51.1
58.5
Overseas E&C
13.7
6.9
14.4
17.3
Asset Development
-5.5
-7.0
-5.1
-4.0
Manufacturing sector
6.3
-7.0
-14.6
-6.4
Note: Investment in subsidiaries includes equity investments, plus advances given,
subordinate debt, etc
Shareholding pattern %
As on
Jun-13 Mar-13 Jun-12
Dom. Inst 36.8
36.3
38.4
Foreign
20.0
21.0
18.2
Others
43.2
42.7
43.4
Stock performance (1 year)
Satyam Agarwal
(AgarwalS@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5410
Nirav Vasa
(Nirav.Vasa@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5422
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
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