10 September 2013
Update | Sector: Cement
Shree Cement
BSE Sensex
19,997
S&P CNX
5,897
CMP: INR3,898
TP: INR5,400
Buy
Sustenance of competitive advantages…
…attainment of critical mass, makes strong case for re-rating
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range
(INR)12 Rel. Per
1, 6,
(%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
SRCM IN
34.8
5,210/3,315
-5/-13/3
135.8
2.1
Shree Cement (SRCM) has been generating absolute EBITDA similar to
ACC/Ambuja Cements (ACEM), on ~60% of their volumes.
Cost leadership, superior profitability and consistent periodic scale-up in market
share have been the key attributable factors, along with visibility of sustenance.
New Greenfield expansion to help diversify market mix to east and central
Attained critical mass for funding future growth from internal accruals.
A strong case for next leg of re-rating. Buy with a SOTP based target price of
INR5,400 (38% upside).
Financial Snapshot (INR Billion)
Y/E March 2013 2014E 2015E
Sales
55.7
60.5
70.0
EBITDA
15.4
15.8
19.8
NP
10.0
7.4
280.7
-10.9
17.7
20.7
13.9
7.6
74
9.9
365.3
30.2
20.2
24.2
10.7
6.2
67
Adj EPS (INR) 314.9
EPS Gr. (%)
14.8
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
P/E (x)
30.6
28.1
12.4
Superior operating performance, similar absolute EBITDA
SRCM would be generating absolute EBITDA of INR15.8b (cement EBITDA of
INR13.3b), which is comparable to that of ACC/ACEM (INR15/18b in FY14E), and
much higher than (1.6x) the next largest player (Madras Cement) in mid-cap
basket. This, coupled with superior operating performances, strengthening of
market mix, scale-up in size and strong balance sheet make a strong case for
further re-rating, at par with large caps. Historically, ACEM had seen similar re-
rating during FY02-06, based on scale-up in operations.
Differentiated expansion strategy help attain critical mass
SRCM demonstrated a differentiated expansion strategy, with regular capacity
additions at higher frequency but smaller magnitudes. The strategy enabled it
to (1) expand systematically as per market demand, (2) faster project
turnaround, quick stabilization and (3) drive growth with minimum pressure on
balance sheet. The Chhattisgarh Greenfield expansion of 2.5mt would take total
capacity to 21.6mt by June 2015. We believe SRCM has attained critical mass as
it can grow capacity by 10-12% annually based on sustainable OCF.
EV/EBITDA(x 7.9
)
EV/Ton(USD) 91
Shareholding pattern (% )
As on
Jun-13 Mar-13 Jun-12
Promoter
Dom. Inst
Foreign
Others
64.8
5.9
18.9
10.4
64.8
5.6
18.6
11.0
64.8
5.3
18.7
11.2
Market mix to improve, operating advantage to be maintained
Chhattisgarh expansion is expected to aid diversification in market mix by
entering eastern region of India. Cost leadership and superior profitability
would continue to persist over medium term. We estimate SRCM to generate
cash flow from operations of ~INR61b over FY14E-16E v/s capex need of
~INR33b, and hence drive growth without impacting balance sheet strength.
Stock Performance (1-year)
5,400
4,400
3,400
2,400
1,400
400
Shree Cement
Sensex - Rebased
Strong case for re-rating, upgrade EV/EBITDA multiple to 9x
Historically, SRCM’s valuation discount to large caps has declined only in a
sectoral down-cycle. But current positioning makes a strong case for next leg of
re-rating. We value SRCM at 9x FY15E Cement EV/EBITDA and DCF for power
business, translating to a target price of INR5,400 (38% upside). Lower payout
and prolonged delay in volume recovery could be key deterrents for re-rating.
Maintain
Buy.
Jinesh Gandhi
(Jinesh@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5416
Sandipan Pal
(Sandipan.Pal@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5436
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.