8 November 2013
3QCY13 Results Update | Sector:
Automobiles
Eicher Motors
BSE SENSEX
20,666
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap. (INR b) / (USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Financials & Valuation (INR b)
Y/E DEC
Net Income
EBITDA
Net Profit
Adj. EPS
(INR)
EPS Gr. (%)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
2013E
69.8
7.0
4.2
142.4
18.5
21.6
22.5
29.0
5.8
2014E
89.2
9.6
5.4
201.6
41.6
870.0
25.4
25.8
20.5
4.7
2015E
110.8
12.5
7.0
260.9
29.4
1072.1
26.9
29.0
15.8
3.8
S&P CNX
6,141
EIM IN
27.0
111.5/1.8
4,249/2,280
4/32/52
CMP: INR4,127
TP: INR4,852
Buy
BV/Sh. (INR) 716.9
Eicher Motors (EIM) reported better-than-expected operational performance
driven by both Royal Enfield (RE) and VECV. Consolidated revenue grew 13.5%
YoY (1% QoQ) to INR16.8b (est. INR15.6b), with EBITDA margin of 9.3% (est.
9.2%). Consolidated EBITDA stood at INR1.57b (est. INR1.43b) driven by better-
than-expected operational performance in both divisions. Adjusted PAT (after
minority) stood at INR857m (est. INR883m) impacted by lower other income
(lumpy in nature).
Earnings call highlights:
1) received extremely positive response to Continental
GT (Café Racer) motorcycle in international markets; India launch expected in
one to two months, 2) Café Racer marks a new beginning in international
markets for RE, 3) savings in RM cost in RE due to product mix and higher
bargaining power with suppliers (due to increasing scale), 4) waiting period
remains high at four to five months, 5) JV with Polaris on track, to launch first
product in CY15, 5) MDEP (Engine) project commenced with over 1,200 engines
exported to Volvo, France, 6) VECV continues to outperform the industry and 7)
launch of new CV range (developed with Volvo inputs) to commence from CY13-
end.
Valuation and view
With several projects coming on stream in CY13-14 and driving 26% sales and
32.8% EBITDA CAGR over CY13E-15E, EIM is at an inflection point. RE continues
to benefit from capacity expansion, product actions and network expansion.
VECV will benefit from MDEP ramp-up and launch of new range of CVs.
We upgrade CY13E/CY14E/CY15E EPS by (2.7)%/12%/7.5% to INR142.4/202/261
respectively. Cut in CY13E EPS is due to lower other income (expected to accrue
in CY14E). EIM trades at 29x/20.5x/15.8x CY13E/CY14E/CY15E EPS.
Buy
with a
two-year target price of INR4,852 (CY15E SOTP).
Jinesh Gandhi
(Jinesh@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5416
Chirag Jain
(Chirag.Jain@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5418
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.

Eicher Motors
Standalone performance (Royal Enfield): Strong operating performance
continues
EBITDA margins at 19.3%
(est 17.9%) were highest
ever
RM cost declined led by
product mix change and
better negotiation with
suppliers (driven by
increasing scale of
activity/production)
Royal Enfield continued with its strong volume growth performance. 3Q
volumes grew 61% YoY (+21% QoQ) to 48,240 units as supplies improved further
with ramp-up of new plant. The new plant contributed over 11,000 units in 3Q.
While the average waiting period has reduced to 4-5 months from 7-8 months
earlier driven by higher production levels, the absolute bookings levels continue
to remain strong.
Realizations improved by 1% QoQ (3.7% YoY) to INR94,857 largely driven by
product mix change.
Revenues grew 66% YoY (+20% QoQ) to INR4.6b (in-line with est) driven by
strong growth in volumes.
EBITDA margins at 19.3% (est 17.9%) were highest ever driven by 210bp drop in
RM cost QoQ to 61.4% (est 63.5%). EBITDA margin improved by 420bp YoY and
150bp QoQ.
RM cost declined led by product mix change and better negotiation with
suppliers (driven by increasing scale of activity/production). Management
expects further savings on RM cost due to increasing scale; however the
intensity of incremental benefits would reduce.
Benefits from higher operating leverage (on fixed cost expenses) and new plant
efficiencies have not yet fully started. Focus currently remains on increasing the
production given high waiting period.
PAT stood at INR618m (est INR648m); shortfall was entirely driven by lower
other income (lumpy in nature) and higher tax rate.
Top 10-12 cities continue to contribute ~50% of RE volumes, indicating
significant potential in mid-size towns and cities.
Current dealership strength is around 290, would comfortably cross 300 by
CY13-end. As of Dec-12, RE had 249 dealerships.
Positive response to Continental GT, marks a new beginning in
international markets
The Continental GT (Café Racer) motorcycle has been launched in UK.
Over 100 media were present from across the globe, including from US, Europe.
The management indicated that the motorcycle has received phenomenal
response and reviews from the media.
Management believes that Café Racer marks a new beginning to the
international business.
The product is expected to be launched in India by CY13-end. The successful
launch of Cafe Racer would improve inquiries into the showroom and have a
positive rub-off effect on other RE brands as well.
With capacity expansion, RE is also focusing on increasing exports particularly to
emerging markets (Latin America, ASEAN, Middle East, South Africa) apart from
traditional markets of US, UK & Europe. However, the real traction in exports
would be seen over the medium to long term.
Given its leadership position, cult brand equity and minimal competition, Royal
Enfield is well positioned to benefit from increasing trend of lifestyle biking.
Capacity expansion (new plant started in 1QCY13), recent/new launches
2
8 November 2013

Eicher Motors
(Thunderbird 500 and Café Racer), and network expansion to drive
26.3%/28.7%/32.3% volume/revenue/EBTIDA CAGR over CY13-15E.
RE now contributes to ~60% to consolidated EBITDA (based on economic
interest) v/s 40% in CY12 and 23% in CY11.
Quarterly Performance (Standalone - Royal Enfield)
Source: MOSL, Company
CV business (VECV): Healthy performance considering weak demand, high
competitive pressures
VECV volumes though
declined continue to
outperform the industry
Management indicated that
discounting pressures
continue to remain high but
seems to have peaked.
VECV’s operating performance was ahead of estimate driven by higher than
estimated revenues.
CV volumes declined 12.6% YoY (-14.5% QoQ) to 9,428 units reflecting weakness
in the industry. However, VECV has performed better than industry. Demand
outlook remains weak leading to continued pressure on discounts.
VECV exported over 1200 engine units to Volvo, France in 3Q. The capacity
under Phase 1 is 25,000 units.
Realizations improved 10.9% QoQ (+15.2% YoY) to INR1.27m (est INR1.17m)
benefiting from product mix change and ramp-up in Medium Duty Engine
Project (MDEP). Revenues grew by 1.4% YoY (-5% QoQ) led by higher
realizations.
EIM reversed a provision of INR527m related to VECV no longer required with
respect to taxes payable to local tax authorities.
EBTIDA margin were in line at 5.6%; however higher revenues led to EBITDA
beat by 12.2%. Margins declined QoQ by 200bp due to lower volumes and
ramp-up in MDEP.
Management indicated that discounting pressures continue to remain high in
the CV industry. However, it has reached near peak levels.
Adjusted PAT stood in-line at INR425m due to lower other income (lumpy
nature).
Launch of new range of CVs is on schedule i.e. by CY13-end.
VECV is better placed among new entrants, given the marriage of Volvo's
technological strength with Eicher's local market expertise. It is taking initiatives
3
8 November 2013

Eicher Motors
to gain share in HCVs and initial signs of success are visible. Volvo intends to use
Eicher as a mass market brand and VECV as its low cost manufacturing hub over
the long term; this presents a sizable export opportunity. We estimate VECV to
register a CAGR of 25.1%/35.4% in revenues/EBITDA over CY13-15.
Quarterly Performance (VECV - derived)
Source: MOSL, Company
Consolidated performance: Above estimate driven by strong operational
performance by both the divisions
Eicher Motors consolidated revenues grew 13.5% YoY (1% QoQ) to INR16.8b
(est INR15.6b) with EBITDA margins of 9.3% (est 9.2%).
Consolidated EBITDA stood at INR1.57b (est INR1.43b) driven by better than
expected operational performance in both division.
Adjusted PAT (after minority) stood at INR857m (est INR883m) impacted by
lower other income.
Valuation & View
With several projects coming on stream in CY13-14 driving 26% sales and 32.8%
EBITDA CAGR over CY13-15E, EIM is at an inflection point. RE continues to
benefit from capacity expansion, product actions and network expansion. VECV
will benefit from MDEP ramp-up and launch of new range of CVs.
We upward revise our CY13E/CY14E/CY15E EBITDA by 2.5%/10%/4%
respectively. We upgrade CY13E/CY14E/CY15E EPS by (2.7)%/12%/7.5% to
INR142.4/202/261 respectively. Cut in CY13E EPS is due to lower other income
(expected to accrue in CY14E).
EIM trades at 29x/20.5x/15.8x CY13E/CY14E/CY15E EPS. Maintain
Buy
with a
two-year target price of INR4,852 (CY15E SOTP). We have raised our target PE
multiple for Royal Enfield business to 20x Core EPS (v/s 18x) due to improving
margin profile. We continue to value VECV at 8x EV/EBITDA
8 November 2013
4

Eicher Motors
Revised forecast
(INR M)
Rev
Standalone (RE)
Volumes (units)
Net Sales
EBITDA
EBITDA (%)
Core Profit
Net Profit
EPS (INR)
VECV
Volumes (units)
Net Sales
EBITDA
EBITDA (%)
Core Profit
EPS (INR)
Consolidated
Net Sales
EBITDA (%)
Net Profit
EPS (INR)
179,058
17,126
3,276
19.1
2,217
3,020
111.8
CY13E
Old Chg (%)
Rev
CY14E
Old Chg (%)
Rev
CY15E
Old Chg (%)
180,078 (0.6) 242,417 242,894 (0.2) 285,701 286,089 (0.1)
17,150 (0.1) 23,541 23,575 (0.1) 28,380 28,346
0.1
3,040
7.8
4,762 4,230
12.6
5,736 5,212
10.0
17.7 140bp
20.2
17.9 230bp
20.2
18.4 180bp
2,105
5.3
3,233 2,879
12.3
3,910 3,574
9.4
2,920
3.4
4,180 3,813
9.6
5,070 4,715
7.5
108.2
3.4
154.8 141.2
9.6
187.8 174.6
7.5
(0.5)
(0.1)
(1.7)
-10bp
(1.1)
(6.0)
(0.1)
30bp
(7.4)
(2.7)
50,399 48,515
65,756 64,891
4,890 4,537
7.4
7.0
2,700 2,386
63.8
55.8
89,245 88,415
10.8
9.9
5,442 4,860
201.6 180.1
3.9
1.3
7.8
40bp
13.2
14.3
59,495 55,493
82,493 81,092
6,863 6,926
8.3
8.5
3,945 3,866
92.5
87.5
7.2
1.7
(0.9)
-20bp
2.0
5.7
43,343 43,575
52,707 52,763
3,744 3,808
7.1
7.2
1,983 2,005
51.5
54.7
69,794 69,874
10.0
9.7
3,657 3,951
142.4 146.4
0.9 110,811 109,377 1.3
90bp
11.3
11.0
30bp
12.0
7,042 6,553
7.5
12.0
260.9 242.8
7.5
Source: MOSL
SOTP valuation
(INR Million)
Royal Enfield
Core PAT (ex div & fin income)
Core Equity Value
@ 20x PE
Net Debt
Equity Value
VECV (@ 54.4% Economic interest)
EBITDA
EV
@ 8x EV/EBITDA
Net Debt
Equity Value
Total Equity Value
Target Price
CY13E
2,217
39,908
-9,297
49,206
2,037
16,296
-1,976
18,272
67,478
2,500
CY14E
3,233
64,655
-13,786
78,441
2,660
21,283
-2,611
23,894
102,335
3,792
CY15E
3,910
78,199
-18,844
97,042
3,733
29,866
-3,976
33,843
130,885
4,852
Source: MOSL
8 November 2013
5

Eicher Motors
Eicher Motors: an investment profile
Company Background
Promoted by the Delhi-based Vikram Lal Group, Eicher
Motors (Bloomberg: EIM) is a diversified engineering
company. It is engaged in the business of high end
motorcycles (350cc & above) under the brand 'Royal
Enfield', and commercial vehicles (CVs), automotive
gears and components, and engineering solutions
through its subsidiary, Volvo Eicher Commercial
Vehicles (VECV).
To become a full-fledged CV player, EIM entered into a
50:50 joint venture with AB Volvo, Sweden in July 2008
and formed Volvo Eicher Commercial Vehicles (VECV).
Key investments risks
Sustained weakness in the CV Industry
Increasing competition in the CV industry could
impact ramp-up of HCV segment.
Recently launched Continental GT (Café Racer) has
received strong response and reviews from
motorcycle journalists.
VECV exported its first batch of over 1200 units of
engine units to Volvo, France in 3Q.
Recent developments
Valuation and view
Key investment arguments
With several of its projects to commence in CY13-
14, driving 26% sales CAGR and 34% EBITDA CAGR
over CY13-15, Eicher Motors (EIM) is at an inflection
point.
Its motorcycle business will benefit from capacity
expansion, new launches, and network expansion.
CV subsidiary, Volvo Eicher Commercial Vehicles
(VECV), will benefit from the commencement of the
Medium Duty Engine Project (MDEP) and ramp-up
in HCVs.
The
stock
trades
at
29x/20.5x/15.8x
CY13E/CY14E/CY15E earnings.
Maintain
Buy
with a two-year TP of INR4,852
(CY15 SOTP).
Demand drivers for Royal Enfield are in place,
driven by increasing trend of lifestyle biking and
minimal competition.
The Indian CV industry is likely to evolve giving
new players opportunity to challenge the
incumbents. VECV is better placed among new
entrants, given the marriage of Volvo's
technological strength with Eicher's local market
expertise.
MOSL
Forecast
Consensus
Forecast
205.4
249.8
Variation
(%)
-1.9
4.4
Sector view
Comparative valuations
P/E (x)
EPS Gr (%)
RoE (%)
EV/EBITDA (x)
CY13E
CY14E
CY13E
CY14E
CY13E
CY14E
CY13E
CY14E
EIM
29.0
20.5
18.5
41.6
21.6
25.4
18.0
12.2
AL
-12.5
35.5
-316.9
-135.2
-8.1
2.8
29.1
9.7
BJAUT
17.0
14.6
15.4
16.6
39.9
38.1
11.5
9.4
EPS: MOSL forecast v/s consensus (INR)
CY14
CY15
201.6
260.9
Target price and recommendation
Current
Price (INR)
4,127
Target
Price (INR)
4,852
Upside
(%)
17.6
Reco.
Buy
Shareholding pattern (%)
Promoter
Domestic Inst
Foreign
Others
Sep-13
55.2
6.0
27.5
11.3
Jun-13
55.2
8.9
24.4
11.6
Sep-12
55.2
15.3
17.5
12.0
Stock performance (1-year)
8 November 2013
6

Eicher Motors
Financials and valuation
Income statement
Y/E December
Net Sales
Change (%)
EBITDA
EBITDA Margin (%)
Depreciation
EBIT
Interest
Other Income
Extraordinary items
PBT
Tax
Tax Rate (%)
Reported PAT
Adjusted PAT
Change (%)
Min. Int. & Assoc. Share
Adj Cons PAT
2012
63,299
11.5
5,490
8.6
822
4,669
38
1,366
0
5,997
1,249
20.8
4,749
4,749
-4.5
-1,506
3,257
2013E
68,965
9.0
6,982
10.0
1,262
5,720
62
1,078
-527
7,262
1,729
23.8
5,534
5,007
5.4
-1,350
3,843
(INR Million)
2014E
2015E
88,209 109,447
27.9
24.1
9,601 12,537
10.8
11.3
1,632
1,855
7,969 10,682
54
54
1,165
1,549
0
0
9,080 12,177
2,194
3,044
24.2
25.0
6,886
9,133
6,886
9,133
37.5
32.6
-1,443
-2,092
5,442
7,042
Ratios
Y/E December
Basic (INR)
EPS
Cash EPS
Book Value
DPS
Payout (incl. Div. Tax.)
Valuation(x)
P/E
Cash P/E
Price / Book Value
EV/Sales
EV/EBITDA
Dividend Yield (%)
Profitability Ratios (%)
RoE
RoCE
Turnover Ratios (%)
Asset Turnover (x)
Debtors (No. of Days)
Inventory (No. of Days)
Creditors (No. of Days)
Leverage Ratios (%)
Net Debt/Equity (x)
2012
120.7
151.1
603.6
20.0
19.4
34.2
27.3
6.8
1.7
20.1
0.5
20.8
23.0
2.4
22.3
27.9
59.7
0.0
2013E
142.4
189.1
716.9
24.0
19.7
29.0
21.8
5.8
1.5
15.0
0.6
21.6
22.5
2.3
19.1
26.9
72.8
0.0
2014E
201.6
262.1
870.0
28.0
16.1
20.5
15.7
4.7
1.1
10.3
0.7
25.4
25.8
2.5
18.7
26.9
73.5
0.0
2015E
260.9
329.6
1072.1
35.0
15.6
15.8
12.5
3.8
0.8
7.3
0.8
26.9
29.0
2.6
18.9
26.9
73.9
0.0
Balance sheet
Y/E December
Share Capital
Reserves
Net Worth
Debt
Deferred Tax
Total Capital Employed
Gross Fixed Assets
Less: Acc Depreciation
Net Fixed Assets
Capital WIP
Investments
Current Assets
Inventory
Debtors
Cash & Bank
Loans & Adv, Others
Curr Liabs & Provns
Curr. Liabilities
Provisions
Net Current Assets
Total Assets
2012
270
16,021
16,291
539
1,232
27,945
19,916
5,665
14,251
5,103
6,440
14,928
4,891
3,903
1,558
4,575
12,777
11,040
1,737
2,151
27,945
2013E
270
19,078
19,348
539
1,385
32,505
26,269
6,927
19,342
2,500
6,440
20,561
5,144
3,655
7,029
4,733
16,338
14,320
2,017
4,224
32,505
(INR Million)
2014E
2015E
270
270
23,211 28,667
23,481 28,937
539
539
1,563
1,812
38,259 46,056
30,519 33,519
8,559 10,414
21,960 23,105
1,250
1,250
6,440
6,440
29,518 41,130
6,567
8,159
4,575
5,732
12,685 20,253
5,691
6,986
20,908 25,868
18,455 22,840
2,453
3,028
8,610 15,261
38,259 46,056
E: MOSL Estimates
Cash flow statement
Y/E December
OP/(Loss) before Tax
Depreciation
Others
Interest
Direct Taxes Paid
(Inc)/Dec in Wkg Cap
CF from Op. Activity
(Inc)/Dec in FA & CWIP
(Pur)/Sale of Invt
Others
CF from Inv. Activity
Inc/(Dec) in Net Worth
Inc / (Dec) in Debt
Interest Paid
Divd Paid (incl Tax)
CF from Fin. Activity
Inc/(Dec) in Cash
Add: Opening Balance
Closing Balance
2012
5,997
822
0
1,366
-661
-2,767
3,787
-11,003
-1,313
0
-12,317
-1,251
35
-38
-632
-1,885
-10,415
11,973
1,558
2013E
7,262
1,262
0
1,078
-1,575
2,973
9,883
-3,750
0
0
-3,750
-369
0
-62
-758
-1,189
4,944
1,558
6,503
(INR Million)
2014E
9,080
1,632
0
1,165
-2,016
1,159
10,019
-3,000
0
0
-3,000
-432
0
-54
-878
-1,364
5,656
6,503
12,158
2015E
12,177
1,855
0
1,549
-2,794
1,120
12,207
-3,000
0
0
-3,000
-488
0
-54
-1,098
-1,640
7,568
12,158
19,726
8 November 2013
7

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Eicher Motors
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1. Analyst ownership of the stock
2. Group/Directors ownership of the stock
3. Broking relationship with company covered
4. Investment Banking relationship with company covered
EICHER MOTORS LTD
No
Yes
No
No
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For U.K.
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Motilal Oswal Capital Markets Singapore Pte Limited is acting as an exempt financial advisor under section 23(1)(f) of the Financial Advisers Act(FAA) read with regulation 17(1)(d) of the Financial
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In respect of any matter arising from or in connection with the research you could contact the following representatives of Motilal Oswal Capital Markets Singapore Pte Limited:
Anosh Koppikar
Kadambari Balachandran
Email : anosh.koppikar@motilaloswal.com
Email : kadambari.balachandran@motilaloswal.com
Contact: (+65) 68189232
Contact: (+65) 68189233 / 65249115
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For Singapore
Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd
8 November 2013
Motilal Oswal Tower, Level 9, Sayani Road, Prabhadevi, Mumbai 400 025
Phone: +91 22 3982 5500 E-mail: reports@motilaloswal.com
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