14 November 2013
2QFY14 Results Update | Sector:
Metals
Tata Steel
BSE SENSEX
20,194
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
S&P CNX
5,990
TATA IN
971.2
448/195
21/16/-15
CMP: INR359
TP: INR312
Sell
EBITDA in-line; non-recurring items boost PAT
Cons. EBITDA was INR37b, flat QoQ and along expected lines. Standalone EBITDA
grew 4% QoQ, driven by better performance of FAMD; steel volumes and margins
were flat QoQ. Subsidiaries’ (TSE and others) EBITDA declined 10% QoQ to
INR7.7b.
Adj. PAT declined 18% QoQ to INR9.2b, higher than our estimate of INR3.5b due
to non-recurring items – lower interest, and D&A and deferred tax credit at TSE.
For TSE, EBITDA declined 29% QoQ to INR5.5b. EBITDA/ton declined 42% QoQ to
USD26. Excluding NRV write-back, EBITDA/ton would have been USD13.
M.Cap. (INR b) / (USD b) 348.5/5.5
Financials & Valuation (INR Billion)
Y/E MAR
Net Sales
EBITDA
Adj PAT
Adj.EPS INR
Gr. (%)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
P/E (x)
P/BV (X)
2013 2014E 2015E
1,347
123.2
-70.6
1.6
1,420
163.9
42.2
41.6
243.1
9.4
9.3
8.6
1.5
1,427
169.2
42.9
42.3
1.5
277.4
16.1
9.2
8.5
1.3
Cutting FY15 volume estimate for TSI; estimate net debt at INR745b by FY15
Management cut its FY14 volume guidance for TSI to 8.3m tons (8.5m tons earlier)
due to weak domestic demand, despite 0.7m tons of extra sales in 1HFY14. TSI has
taken price hikes in Sept and Oct, but whether the prices stick needs to be
watched. We are cutting FY15 volume estimate to 9m tons (9.5m tons earlier).
Net debt increased by INR83b to INR685b in 1HFY14, largely due to forex
translation loss. Project cost estimates continue to rise, as the site is designed for
6mtpa though phase-1 will be 3mtpa. The group’s annual capex is estimated at
~USD2.5b. This is likely to increase net debt to INR745b by FY15.
-91.6 2,553.8
4.2
6.1
228.7
1.7
BV/Sh(INR) 217.3
Raising earnings estimates, target price; maintain Sell
For FY14, our cons. EBITDA estimate remains unchanged at IN164b, but lower tax
and depreciation at subsidiaries results in 26% EPS upgrade to INR41.6. For FY15,
we have raised our consolidated EBITDA estimate by INR4b to INR169b and EPS
estimate by 29% to INR42.3, to factor in higher volumes and margins for TSE.
Steel sector has got re-rated due to stabilization of steel markets. We are
increasing the target multiple from 5x to 5.5x for Indian operations. Our revised
TP is INR312 (INR210 earlier), the combined effect of re-rating and earnings
upgrade.
Balance sheet will remain stretched, given heavy investments in Indian greenfield
projects and delays. Indian steel demand is yet to bottom out. We are not sure if
the benefit of operating leverage will result in margin expansion for TSE.
Sell.
Sanjay Jain
(SanjayJain@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5412
Pavas Pethia
(Pavas.Pethia@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5413
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.

Tata Steel
Consolidated: EBITDA in-line; PAT boosted by non-recurring items; volumes
were stronger but margins were hit
Consolidated EBITDA was flat QoQ (+60% YoY) at INR37b and was on expected
line. Standalone EBITDA improved 4% QoQ due to better performance of FAMD
(Ferro Alloy), while steel volumes and margins were flat QoQ. EBTIDA of
subsidiaries (TSE and others) declined 10% QoQ to INR7.7b despite 9% volume
growth at TSE.
Standalone: EBITDA up 4% helped by FAMD; volume guidance cut on
weaker India demand
14 November 2013
Net sales increased 5% QoQ to INR99.2b largely due to rebound in operational
performance of FAMD. The performance improved due to better realization
and returning of FAMD volumes to normal run rate as the operational issues are
now behind.
Steel segment revenue increase 2% QoQ to INR91.2b due to corresponding
volumes growth, while average realization remained flat.
Long product volumes declined 4% QoQ to 680kt and realization too declined
4% QoQ to INR35,579/ton. Long product division is under 2 month shutdown
spanning September and October. Flat product sales volumes increased 5% QoQ
to 1.36m tons, while the realization was flat. Sales of other steel products
increased 7%QoQ to INR17.8b.
EBITDA increased 4% QoQ to INR29.4b due to better performance of FAMD and
2% volume growth in steel volumes. Cost of production largely remained flat.
EBITDA per ton for steel segment was down 2% QoQ to INR13,284 (or USD213).
D&A charges were higher temporarily due to amortization of arrear stamp duty
on renewal of mining leases for Odisha on provisional basis.
Interest expense were 9% lower than estimate due to waiver of interest on
discounting schemes (non-recurring)
Other income was boosted due to dividends from Nat Steel & Tata Motors and
gains on cancellation of forward covers.
2

Tata Steel
Adjusted PAT increased 15% QoQ to INR15.6b due to lower interest and higher
other income.
Weak economic conditions are affecting demand from steel consuming sectors
although INR/USD depreciation is helping realization. Tata Steel India has
undertaken two price hikes ranging INR1,500-2,000/ton in September and
October. However, we have yet to see actual gains in realization as quarter
proceeds because the demand scenario remains weak.
Volume guidance for FY14/FY15 has been cut to 8.3/9 m tons (vs. 8.5/9.5 m
tons) respectively.
Tata steel Europe: positive surprise in volumes; margins boosted by NRV
write-back; outlook improving but expect marginal 3% demand growth
Sales volumes improved 10% QoQ to 3.46m tons (vs. est. of 3.2m tons) in
seasonally weak quarter. TSE surprised positively on volume front by selling
additional volume in new markets. Higher volumes had a 7% QoQ impact on
average selling price.
Higher volumes (courtesy stabilizing of recently revamped Port Talbot blast
furnace) led to fall in specific fixed operating costs thereby helping margins. As a
result, there were manufacturing gains of GBP22m and volume gain of GBP14m.
Steel price and Raw material squeeze affected margins by GBP92m, which were
partly offset by write-back of GBP29m past NRV provisioning.
EBITDA declined 29% QoQ to INR5.5b. EBITDA per ton declined 42% QoQ to
USD26. Had NRV write-back was not taken, the EBITDA per ton would have been
USD13 (vs. est. of USD17).
EU steel demand is expected to gradually improve through 3QFY14. European
steel demand is expected to grow 3% YoY in 2014. TSE will ramp up production
from currently operating facilities and has no plan for restarting the mothballed
capacities.
We are factoring volume growth of 3% each in FY14 and FY15.
Source: MOSL, Company
Other subsidiaries: operating performance improved; demand outlook
positive but import pressure in SEA
EBITDA increased significantly from INR767m in 1QFY14 to INR2.1b in 2QFY14
led by 5% volume growth at South East Asia (SEA) and better performance of
Indian subs e.g. Tata Sponge, Timken etc.
3
14 November 2013

Tata Steel
Construction outlook remains positive in SEA region, but imports from China is
putting pressure.
TSE to benefit from operating leverage as Europe exit recession; but, will
spreads support margin?
European steel demand has started improving gradually, but weakening of steel
prices (due to import pressure) may compress the spreads (Steel price – RM
basket). As a result, the gains on account of operating leverage may not be
enough to offset the compression of spreads. Yet, we are factoring EBITDA per
ton to improve to USD44 and USD55 in FY14 and FY15 giving benefit of doubt.
Analyzing history:
Corus (pre-acquisition) had witnessed both spreads and
specific fixed cost expanding during CY01-03 leaving no room for margin
expansion. We see similarity of situation in FY11-13 where spreads expanded
despite weak demands because specific fixed costs were rising as everybody cut
production to survive in weak market.
Later on Corus saw fixed costs falling and simultaneously the spreads were
expanding because of strong global demand growth and high sea freights, which
prevented imports over CY04-06. The dual benefit of spread expansion and
operating leverage helped Corus post strong margins over CY04-06.
Margin outlook? The key question is how will margin look like for TSE over
FY14-16 because operating leverage is likely to benefit as European demand
grows. But, we are not sure if the spreads will sustain. Weak freights due to
oversupplied shipping industry, falling global steel capacity utilization and
possible rebalancing in China will keep the import pressure high whenever
prices become attractive in Europe. This perhaps is the reason that European
prices are trending south again despite European economy bottoming out.
Europe GDP growth (%) has bottomed out…
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
Europe GDP
Source: Company, MOSL
14 November 2013
4

Tata Steel
…but HRC prices (EUR/T) have started coming off once again across Europe
600
560
520
480
440
400
North Europe
South Europe
Source: Bloomberg
TSE P&L (USD/T): volume pick up may cut fixed cost; sustaining of spreads critical for
margins
Note: Corus (CY01 to CY06); TSE (FY08 to FY13) post acquisition
Source: Bloomberg
Upgrading target price, but maintaining Sell
Tata Steel India volumes are cut from 8.55m tons to 8.2-8.3m tons for FY14 (vs.
7.5m tons in FY13) due to weakening demand in domestic markets. This is
despite the fact that nearly 0.7m tons of extra volumes were sold in 1HFY14
itself. Tata Steel has taken price hikes in Sept. and Oct, but we have yet to see if
these prices are sticking. Similarly volumes for FY15 has been cut from 9.5m
tons to 9m tons due to guidance moderation.
According to our calculations, net debt has increased by INR83b to INR685b
during last six months largely due to forex translation loss. INR50b were spent
on 3mtpa KPO (Kalinganagar, Odisha) in 1HFY14, which has taken the
cumulative spent to INR126b. The project cost estimates continue to rise
because the site is actually designed for 6mtpa although phase 1 will comprise
of 3mtpa. The annual capex is estimated to be ~USD2.5b for the group. This is
likely to increase debt to INR745b by end of March 2015.
Cons EBITDA for FY14 has remained unchanged at IN164b, but lower tax and
depreciation at subsidiaries has resulted in 26% EPS upgrade to INR41.6.
Factoring higher volumes and margin for TSE, cons EBITDA has increased by
INR4b to INR169b for FY15 and EPS has increased by 29% to INR42.3.
Sector has got re-rated due to stable steel prices. We are increasing the target
multiple from 5x to 5.5x for Indian operations. The target price is upgraded to
INR312 (vs. INR210) as combined effect of re-rating and earnings upgrade.
14 November 2013
5

Tata Steel
Heavy investment on Indian Greenfield projects and delays will keep stretching
balance sheet. Indian domestic demand has yet to bottom out. We are not sure
if the benefit of operating leverage will really result in margin expansion for TSE.
Maintain
Sell
with target price of INR312/share.
.
14 November 2013
6

Tata Steel
Tata Steel: an investment profile
Company description
Tata Steel is the lowest cost steel producer in India.
Globally, it is the 12th largest steel company, with
24.3m tons of steel sales in FY12. It has operations
spread over Europe, the UK, Asia, North America and
rest of the world, with an annual capacity of 27m tons.
On a consolidated level, it has ~22% raw material
security and plans to increase this to 50-60%. Annual
production is likely to increase to 34m tons through
brownfield expansions in Jamshedpur and greenfield
projects in Orissa.
Recent developments
Tata Steel recently announced long products
business restructuring proposals to help
strengthen its competitiveness. The proposed
changes affect predominately management and
administrative functions at sites in Scunthorpe,
Teesside and Workington and could lead to the
loss of around 500 jobs.
Heavy investment on Indian Greenfield projects
and delays will keep stretching balance sheet.
Indian domestic demand has yet to bottom out.
We are not sure if the benefit of operating
leverage will really result in margin expansion for
TSE. Stock is trading at FY15 EV/EBITDA of 6.5x.
Maintain
Sell
with target price of INR312/share.
In 2QFY14 domestic steel prices were boosted by
incremental export demand due to INR
depreciation against USD. However INR
depreciating trend has somewhat reversed while
domestic demand continue to remain subdued.
Steel prices have stabilized now but we expect
prices to correct going forward. We maintain our
bearish view on ferrous companies under our
coverage universe.
Valuation and view
Key investment arguments
Recent 2.9m-ton expansion at Jamshedpur would
lead to ~1.5m tons of incremental sales volumes
over FY13-15. Total consolidated sales tonnage is
expected to be 27m tons in FY15.
Overseas investments in raw material assets are
likely to start generating cash flows in FY14.
In Europe, restructuring initiatives such as
upgradation of plants, shutdown of old units and
downsizing of manpower should increase cost
effectiveness, going forward.
TATA's earnings have high leverage to steel prices
and earnings from European operations. The
demand scenario remains challenging in Europe
TATA STEEL
8.6
8.5
1.5
1.3
0.7
0.8
6.4
6.5
JSW Steel
27.4
19.8
1.3
1.2
1.2
1.2
6.9
6.6
SAIL
9.6
11.5
0.6
0.6
1.1
1.1
9.2
8.9
Sector view
Key investment risks
Comparative valuations
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
EV/Sales (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
EPS: MOSL forecast v/s consensus (INR)
MOSL
Forecast
FY14
FY15
41.6
42.3
Consensus
Forecast
33.1
39.8
Variation
(%)
25.9
6.3
Target price and recommendation
Current
Price (INR)
359
Target
Price (INR)
312
Upside
(%)
-13.1
Reco.
Sell
Shareholding pattern (%)
Promoter
Domestic Inst
Foreign
Others
Sep-13
31.4
26.1
16.3
26.3
Jun-13
31.4
26.3
15.9
26.5
Sep-12
31.4
27.3
16.6
24.7
Stock performance (1-year)
14 November 2013
7

Tata Steel
Financials and valuation
Income statement
Y/E March
Net Sales
Change (%)
EBITDA
EBITDA Margin (%)
Depreciation
EBIT
Interest
Other Income
Extraordinary items
PBT
Tax
Tax Rate (%)
Reported PAT
Adjusted PAT
Change (%)
Min. Int. & Assoc. Share
Adj Cons PAT
2012
1,329.0
11.9
124.2
9.3
45.2
79.0
42.5
15.7
33.6
85.8
36.4
42.4
49.5
15.9
-72.9
4.4
18.1
(INR Billion)
2013
2014E
1,347.1 1,419.7
1.4
5.4
123.2
163.9
9.1
11.5
55.8
57.9
67.5
106.0
39.7
41.9
4.8
3.9
-73.9
0.0
-41.3
68.0
32.3
24.7
-78.1
36.3
-73.6
43.3
0.3
43.3
-98.3 15,646.5
3.0
-1.0
1.5
40.4
2015E
1,426.6
0.5
169.2
11.9
57.2
112.1
42.6
4.0
0.0
73.5
29.2
39.7
44.3
44.3
2.4
-1.4
41.1
Ratios
Y/E March
Basic (INR)
EPS
Cash EPS
Book Value
DPS
Payout (incl. Div. Tax.)
Valuation(x)
P/E
Cash P/E
Price / Book Value
EV/Sales
EV/EBITDA
Dividend Yield (%)
Profitability Ratios (%)
RoE
RoCE
Turnover Ratios (%)
Asset Turnover (x)
Debtors (No. of Days)
Inventory (No. of Days)
Creditors (No. of Days)
Leverage Ratios (%)
Net Debt/Equity (x)
2012
18.6
99.7
260.2
12.0
84.9
2013
1.6
-17.1
217.3
8.0
4,916.2
228.7
-21.0
1.7
0.7
7.7
2.2
17.1
7.4
1.2
40.9
70.3
55.5
2.1
4.2
6.1
1.2
37.9
65.3
59.0
2.8
2014E
41.6
101.3
243.1
8.0
31.2
8.6
3.5
1.5
0.7
6.4
2.2
9.4
9.3
1.2
40.0
60.0
58.8
3.0
2015E
42.3
101.1
277.4
8.0
32.9
8.5
3.5
1.3
0.8
6.5
2.2
16.1
9.2
1.1
40.0
60.0
59.0
2.8
Balance sheet
Y/E March
Share Capital
Reserves
Net Worth
Debt
Deferred Tax
Total Capital Employed
Gross Fixed Assets
Less: Acc Depreciation
Net Fixed Assets
Capital WIP
Investments
Current Assets
Inventory
Debtors
Cash & Bank
Loans & Adv, Others
Curr Liabs & Provns
Curr. Liabilities
Provisions
Net Current Assets
Total Assets
2012
9.7
416.6
426.3
647.4
24.4
1,109.1
1,133.0
712.0
421.0
200.3
26.2
609.7
256.0
148.8
122.0
82.9
321.7
183.2
138.5
288.0
1,109.1
2013
9.7
332.0
341.7
707.7
31.2
1,097.3
1,352.6
798.4
554.3
137.9
25.0
580.3
240.9
139.9
106.2
93.3
330.8
197.8
133.0
249.5
1,097.3
(INR Billion)
2014E
2015E
9.7
9.7
357.1
390.4
366.8
400.2
777.9
797.9
29.2
39.8
1,190.6 1,254.4
1,531.2 1,675.2
856.3
913.5
674.9
761.7
137.9
137.9
25.0
25.0
557.5
535.4
233.4
234.5
155.6
156.3
75.2
51.3
93.3
93.3
335.3
336.3
202.3
203.2
133.0
133.0
222.2
199.1
1,190.6 1,254.4
E: MOSL Estimates
Cash flow statement
Y/E March
OP/(Loss) before Tax
Depreciation
Others
Interest
Direct Taxes Paid
(Inc)/Dec in Wkg Cap
CF from Op. Activity
(Inc)/Dec in FA & CWIP
(Pur)/Sale of Invt
Others
CF from Inv. Activity
Inc/(Dec) in Net Worth
Inc / (Dec) in Debt
Interest Paid
Divd Paid (incl Tax)
CF from Fin. Activity
Inc/(Dec) in Cash
Add: Opening Balance
Closing Balance
2012
85.8
45.2
-15.7
42.5
-36.5
11.6
112.8
-121.4
78.5
-5.1
-48.0
6.0
-39.8
-37.6
-11.6
-83.0
-18.2
140.2
122.0
2013
-41.3
55.8
-4.8
39.7
-25.7
31.3
133.2
-154.7
29.5
-3.3
-128.6
2.6
25.2
-34.7
-13.6
-20.4
-15.8
122.0
106.2
(INR Billion)
2014E
68.0
57.9
-3.9
41.9
-26.7
-3.6
133.6
-145.5
0.0
3.9
-141.6
0.0
30.0
-43.7
-9.3
-23.0
-31.0
106.2
75.2
2015E
73.5
57.2
-4.0
42.6
-18.6
-0.9
149.8
-144.0
0.0
4.0
-140.0
0.0
20.0
-44.4
-9.3
-33.7
-23.9
75.2
51.3
14 November 2013
8

Tata Steel
NOTES
14 November 2013
9

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TATA STEEL LTD
No
No
No
No
Tata Steel
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14 November 2013
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