15 January 2014
3QFY14 Results Update | Sector:
Financials
Bajaj Finance
BSE SENSEX
21,289
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap. (INR b) / (USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
S&P CNX
6,321
BAF IN
49.8
77.1/1.3
1,591/966
1/7/7
CMP: INR1,548
TP: INR1,704
Buy
Financials & Valuation (INR Billion)
Y/E MAR
NII
PPP
PAT
EPS (INR)
EPS Gr. (%)
BV/Sh.
(INR)
RoA (%)
RoE (%)
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
2014E 2015E 2016E
22.9
14.1
7.5
151
27
801
3.6
20.4
10.3
1.9
28.2
17.3
8.8
177
18
947
3.2
20.3
8.7
1.6
34.8
21.4
10.5
212
19
1,121
3.2
20.5
7.3
1.4
Bajaj Finance (BAF) 3QFY14 PAT stood at INR1.94b, up 21% YoY and 16% QoQ (in
line with our est. of INR1.93b). Strong AUM growth (+33% YoY and 13% QoQ),
stable asset quality QoQ (GNPA/NNPA 1.15/0.23%), margins expansion of 60bp
QoQ and 200bp improvement in PCR were the key highlights of the quarter.
AUM growth remained strong (up 33% YoY and 13% QoQ) at INR224.6b, driven by
a robust +29% YoY in consumer segment and +50% growth in SME business.
Commercial segment (CE and short term infrastructure loans) de-grew +30% YoY.
Estimated margins stood at 12.5% and were flat YoY and improved 60bp
sequentially. The sequential improvement in margins is a seasonal phenomenon
due to strong earnings from consumer electronic financing, though marginally it
was also led by 50bp sequential decline in cost of funds (est).
Other highlights:
1) as BAF continues to invest in systems and processes, opex
(10% above est.) grew 37% YoY and 7% QoQ, 2) asset quality was stable, with
GNPA/NNPA at 1.15%/0.23%; and 4) BAF has 95% of the loan book at 90dpd (only
CE and Infrastructure on 180dpd).
Valuation and view:
BAF continues to reap the benefits of healthy consumer
demand and is among the few companies doing well in this space. Despite the
fragile macro environment BAF continues to have one of the best asset quality
among the peer group. Superior margins, focused fee income strategy and control
over cost ratio will keep core operating profitability strong. We expect RoA/RoE to
remain strong at over 3.4%/21% during FY14-16. We maintain
Buy
rating with a
target price of INR1,704 (1.8x FY15E BV of INR950).
Sunesh Khanna
(Sunesh.Khanna@MotilalOswal.com) + 91 22 3982 5521
Alpesh Mehta
(Alpesh.Mehta@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5415
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.