21 January 2014
3QFY14 Results Update | Sector:
Financials
Kotak Mahindra Bank
BSE SENSEX
21,251
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap. (INR b) / (USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
KMB’s consolidated PAT for 3QFY14 grew 2% YoY (lowest since 1QFY10) to INR5.9b
768.7
(4% below our estimate), marred by sharp moderation in loan growth to 6% YoY.
543.0/8.8
Lending business PAT was flat YoY (6% below estimate) at INR4.7b, whereas other
804/588
business PAT grew 23% YoY to INR1.4b v/s our expectation of INR1.1b.
-4/-3/7
S&P CNX
6,314
KMB IN
CMP: INR706
TP: INR720
Neutral
Financials & Valuation (INR Billion)
Y/E MAR
NII
OP
NP
NIM (%)
EPS (INR)
EPS Gr. (%)
Cons. BV.
(INR) RoE
Cons.
( )
RoA (%)
Payout (%)
Valuations
P/E(X)
(C (X)
P/BV )
(C
P/ABV)(X)
( Yield
Div. )
(%)
2014E
37.0
25.7
14.5
4.6
32.7
11.6
236.0
14.9
1.7
2.9
21.6
3.0
3.1
0.1
2015E
41.0
28.2
16.7
4.6
37.1
13.4
272.0
14.6
1.7
2.9
19.0
2.6
2.7
0.1
2016E
47.5
32.4
19.1
4.7
42.3
13.9
313.0
14.4
1.7
2.9
16.7
2.3
2.3
0.1
Standalone business:
Moderate loan growth led to stable NIM (calculated) QoQ at
4.7%. Risk aversion (in some segments) led to loan growth of just 6% YoY (estimate
of 10% YoY) and in-turn impacted NII (3% below estimate) and PAT (6% below
estimate). CV loans continued to decline (drop of 12% QoQ and 26% YoY). Corporate
(+13% QoQ) and agricultural (+14% QoQ) loans were the key drivers of sequential
loan growth.
Other highlights:
(1) KMB’s market share declined 10bp QoQ to 2.3%, (2)
Consolidated NIM was stable QoQ at 4.9%, (3) Consolidated GNPA (including stress
assets) increased to 1.7% (1.6% in 2QFY14), (4) PCR dropped to 46% from 51% in
2QFY14, and if PCR were to be maintained at 2QFY14 levels, standalone PBT would
have been lower by 12-13%, and (5) SA deposit growth was strong at 9% QoQ (38%
YoY) and CASA ratio was stable QoQ at 30%.
Maintain Neutral:
Management comments on the conference call on loan growth
and asset quality were relatively positive (as compared to the previous quarter).
However, considering the growth environment, loan growth will be lower than
historical levels (14% over FY13-16 v/s 31% over FY09-13). Core PPP/earnings CAGR
would be 14%/13% over FY13-16 as compared to 36%+ each over FY09-13. RoA is
likely to moderate to 1.7% over FY14-15 and RoE would be in mid-teens. On the back
of rich valuations, we maintain
Neutral.
Alpesh Mehta
(Alpesh.Mehta@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5415
Sohail Halai
(Sohail.Halai@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 39825430
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.