22 January 2014
3QFY14 Results Update | Sector:
Healthcare
Torrent Pharmaceuticals
BSE SENSEX
21,338
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap. (INR b) / (USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel.Per (%)
S&P CNX
6,339
TRP IN
169.2
80.4/1.3
535/324
4/12/32
CMP: INR508
TP: INR580
Buy
Financials & Valuation (INR Million)
Y/E MAR
Net Sales
EBITDA
Adj PAT
Adj.EPS
(INR)
Gr (%)
BV/Sh(INR)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
P/E (x)
P/BV (X)
2014E 2015E 2016E
38,516 47,167 55,436
7,864
5,364
31.7
14
108
32.9
30.5
16.0
4.7
9,865 11,931
5,371
31.7
0
129
26.8
22.9
16.0
3.9
6,528
38.6
22
154
27.3
20.6
13.2
3.3
Revenue for 3QFY14 grew 27% YoY to INR10.1b (v/s est. INR9.72b). EBITDA grew
33% YoY to INR2.1b (v/s est. of INR1.83b), with EBITDA margin at 21.2% (est.
18.8%). Adjusted PAT grew 41% to INR1.6b (above est. of INR1.26b).
Sales growth was driven by stronger-than-expected growth in key export markets
of the US (up 61% YoY v/s est. 33%), Latam (up 26% YoY v/s est. 9%) and Europe
(up 59% YoY v/s est. 46%). Growth in domestic formulations (15% YoY) was in
line, while RoW markets grew below expectation (up 9% YoY v/s est. 27%).
EBITDA margin expanded 100bp YoY to 21.2% (v/s est. 18.8%). This was on
account of: (1) higher-than-expected contribution from gCymbalta in the US, (2)
surprising recovery in sales growth in Brazil and (3) rationalization of marketing
expenses.
Concall highlights: (1) India: Sustains growth momentum led by improving MR
productivity, (2) Brazil: recent launches drive growth; increasing focus on generic-
generics, (3) US: high growth to sustain driven by 8-10 launches in FY15 and (4)
Europe: high growth to sustain due to contribution from long term tenders.
Based on 3QFY14 performance, we have increased the EPS estimate for
FY14E/15E/16E by 8%/3%/5% mainly to reflect (1) higher growth in the US, Brazil and
Europe along with (2) improving field force productivity and sales mix driving margin
expansion. Performance over the last few quarters suggests that the base business is
becoming increasingly stable. However, FY15 will be the first year of consolidation of
Elder Pharma’s acquisition which is expected to be a drag on profitability due to
higher interest cost. While FY15 is likely to be a muted year, we expect Elder’s
acquisition to start reflecting positively in FY16 and this along with stability in base
business is likely to lead to a strong 20% growth in earnings in FY16E. Maintain
Buy
with a revised target price of INR580 (15x FY16E EPS).
Alok Dalal(Alok.Dalal@MotilalOswal.com);+91
22 3982 5584
Hardick Bora(Hardick.Bora@MotilalOswal.com);+91
22 3982 5423
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.