Metals & Energy Daily– Detailed Report

Tuesday, January 28, 2014

Commodity

Gold / USD Spot

Silver / USD Spot

Crude oil $ Spot

COMEX Copper $

LME Copper (3M)

LME Aluminum (3M)

LME Nickel (3M)

LME Lead (3M)

LME Zinc (3M)

Last

1256.6

19.7

95.82

343.5

7171

1758

14160

2144

2018

Chg

-12.04

-0.16

-0.84

-1.9

-11

3.25

% Chg

-0.95%

-0.81%

-0.87%

-0.55%

0.19%

0.00%

0.28%

-0.51%

0.16%

Market Overview (Economy)

Asian markets are trading

under pressure overall as

emerging markets ahead

meet is keeping traders on

mixed but still

the turmoil in

of the FOMC

the sidelines

In data yesterday, new home sales in the

U.S. fell sharply but the services PMI and

the Dallas Fed manufacturing activity

expanded

Overall, the focus today will be on the

rate decision by the RBI as the focus is

now on emerging market Central banks

on how they will handle the rout in their

currencies

Equity

BSE Sensex Index

S&P CNX NIFTY

Hang Seng Index

Shanghai Index

Nikkei 225 Index

DAX Index

CAC 40 Index

Dow Jones

NASDAQ 100 Index

Last

20707.5

6135.9

21976.1

2033.3

15005.7

9349.2

4144.6

15837.9

3509.0

Chg

-426.1

-130.9

-474.0

-21.1

-385.8

-42.8

-16.9

-41.2

-32.5

% Chg

-2.02%

-2.09%

-2.11%

-1.03%

-2.51%

-0.46%

-0.41%

-0.26%

-0.92%

Precious Metals

Gold prices are lower in the international

markets ahead of the FOMC meet

tomorrow but domestic prices are being

supported by a weaker rupee

Off late Chinese demand has been

supporting prices as China's net gold

imports from Hong Kong rose 24% in

December bringing the total purchases for

2013 to a record 1,158 tonnes

The trend in the INR after the policy

decision today will be a key factor for

local prices even as international markets

await a trigger from the Fed

We continue with our positive bias on

MCX Gold and advise to go long on dips.

Strong support on the downside is at

Rs.29460/350 with an immediate support

at 29630

MCX Silver failed to breach mentioned

resistance of Rs.45900 and fell sharply.

Price is unable to breach crucial range of

Rs.43700-45900 and either side breach of

this range could give us further direction

The trend in the INR after the policy

decision today will be a key factor for local

prices even as international markets await

a trigger from the Fed

Please refer to disclaimer at the end of the report.

Base Metals

Industrial metals were trading flattish after

edging down sharply yesterday, as tight physical

supply buffered prices against emerging market

turmoil fanned by expectations that the Fed will

scale back stimulus this week

Nickel prices lost the most, while copper dropped

to the lowest since mid-December partly due to

China's slowing factory growth and an annual lull

that comes ahead of Lunar New Year

All eyes are set on the FOMC meeting

announcement tomorrow and markets are

sluggish as the Chinese go on a long holiday for

their Lunar New Year from Friday

Sharp depreciation in Rupee is limiting the fall in

MCX Copper prices. LME Copper is already trading

at day’s low and still looks bearish for the target

of $7120

Nickel is still unable to sustain above previous

high of Rs.915 level and looks to trade sideways

to weak as long as it stays below the same

LME Inventory

Commodity

Copper

Zinc

Lead

Nickel

Aluminium

Change

-1575

-4750

2100

192

-7050

Source: Reuters

Nickel prices lost the most, while

copper dropped to the lowest since

mid-December partly due to China's

slowing factory growth and an

annual lull that comes ahead of

Lunar New Year

Energy

Crude oil prices declined sharply led by a steep

fall in natural gas as growth concerns in

emerging markets raise concerns about crude

oil demand

Also, crude oil and gasoline inventories are

expected to climb this week which is weighing

on prices.API inventory is due for release today

which is expected to show that crude

inventories rose by Crude 2.7 mln

Natural gas prices fell sharply from higher levels

partly on profit booking and partly due to

normal weather forecasts for the East Coast in

early February

Crude oil is in a pullback mode of its entire fall

from Rs.6314 to Rs.5640 and is trading near

Rs.6090 at present. Strong support is at

6060/5985 while resistance is at 6170/6210

As expected Natural Gas prices fell sharply after

making a short term top near Rs.340 level.

Strong support on the downside is at

Rs.302/305 level while strong resistance is at

Rs.315/320 level

Natural gas prices fell sharply from

higher levels partly on profit booking

and partly due to normal weather

forecasts for the East Coast in early

February

Please refer to disclaimer at the end of the report.

Level Playing Sheet

Commodity

Gold

Silver

Crude Oil

Copper

Zinc

Lead

Nickel

Aluminum

Exchange

MCX

COMEX

MCX

COMEX

MCX

NYMEX

MCX

Expiry

Feb

Mar

Feb

Mar

Feb

Jan

29798

1263

45214

19.79

6088

95.72

459.55

126.95

136.35

894.10

108.95

29433

1237

44525

19.27

6012

94.07

452.22

125.05

133.88

882.90

107.02

29616

1250

44870

19.53

6050

94.89

455.88

126.00

135.12

888.50

107.98

Pivot

29732

1265

45154

19.81

6110

96.04

458.32

126.85

135.93

898.00

108.52

29915

1278

45499

20.07

6148

96.86

461.98

127.80

137.17

903.60

109.48

30031

1293

45783

20.35

6208

98.01

464.42

128.65

137.98

913.10

110.02

Trend

Bullish

Bearish

Bullish

Bearish

Flat

Bearish

Bullish

Bearish

Conviction

Moderate

Range

29674 - 29973

1244 - 1272

45012 - 45641

19.4 - 19.94

6031 - 6129

94.5 - 96.5

457.1 - 463.2

126.4 - 128.2

135.5 - 137.6

886 - 901

108.3 - 109.8

For any details contact:

Commodities Advisory Desk - +91 22 3958 3600

commoditiesresearch@motilaloswal.com

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