30 January 2014
3QFY14 Results Update | Sector:
Real Estate
Godrej Properties
BSE SENSEX
20,647
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap. (INR b) / (USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
S&P CNX
6,120
GPL IN
199.2
31.8/ 0.6
298/156
-1 /-36 /-48
CMP: INR160
TP: INR180
Neutral
Financials & Valuation (INR Billion)
Y/E Mar 2014E 2015E 2016E
Net Sales
EBITDA
NP
EPS (INR)
EPS Gr. (%)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
Payout (%)
Valuations
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
EV/EBITDA
( )
Div. Yld (%)
21.1
1.4
12.0
1.3
18.7
1.3
9.4
1.3
14.9
1.2
7.8
1.3
10.5
3.0
1.5
7.6
-14.5
8.2
9.2
15.4
13.2
4.0
1.7
8.6
12.9
120.7
7.3
8.5
13.7
16.0
4.8
2.1
10.7
25.1
130.3
8.5
9.5
10.9
BV/Sh (INR) 113.3
Revenue below est; margin beat on higher bookings from Vikhroli commercial:
Godrej Properties’ (GPL) 3QFY14 revenue grew 9.2% YoY (-21% QoQ) to INR2.4b
(below est. of INR3b). However, EBITDA grew 13.7% YoY (+6% QoQ) to INR854m
(above est. of INR772m), implying margin of 35.3% (+9pp QoQ). Better margin is
attributable to higher revenue from Vikhroli (commercial), which enjoys 40-
42% margins. Ex-Vikhroli, blended margin has improved to 29% in 3QFY14
(+10% QoQ). PAT stood at INR374m (+5% QoQ), marginally below estimate of
INR390m due to higher tax rate.
Pre-sales posted moderate QoQ improvement
but broadly remains weak in the
context of a seasonally strong quarter. GPL’s stake of 3QFY14 pre-sales stood at
0.39msf (INR3.3b) v/s 0.43msf (INR2.7b) in 2QFY14 and 0.56msf (INR3.7b) in
3QFY13. 9MFY14 pre-sales stood at INR10.3b (v/s INR19.8b in FY13) v/s annual
estimate of INR13.8b.
Disappointments on negative FCFE continue:
Cash flow weakness continues to
be the biggest concern as GPL posted negative FCFE of INR2.7b (v/s core-FCFE of
negative INR7.3b in 9MFY14). We estimate company’s operating cash flow
(OCF) in 3QFY14 of negative INR1.7b, which was impacted by non-regular
outflows of INR1.5-1.7b - refundable deposit for LBS project, FSI premium,
various approvals, EDC/IDC related to upcoming launches. GPL has also given
exit to Redford India RE Babur PE in Genesis during 3QFY14. Accordingly, net
debt was up by INR2.7b QoQ to INR15.3b (0.68x).
Maintain Neutral:
Our key concern has been company’s failure to improve
operating cash flow, which is likely to see further deterioration with almost
INR11b of cash outgo towards BKC project over FY14-16. We expect capital
efficiency and cash flow to remain subdued over FY15, before a recovery in
FY16, on the benefits of planned launches percolating. GPL trades at 14.9x
FY16E EPS and 1.2x FY16E BV (RoE of 9%). Maintain
Neutral.
Sandipan Pal
(Sandipan.Pal@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5436
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.