10 February 2014
3QFY14 Results Update | Sector:
Cement
Birla Corporation
BSE SENSEX
20,377
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap. (INR b) / (USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
S&P CNX
6,063
BCORP IN
77.0
18.1/0.3
294/191
-11/-4/-17
Financials & Valuation (INR Billion)
Y/E Mah
Sales
EBITDA
NP
EPS Gr. (%)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
Payout (%)
Valuations
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
EV/EBITDA
( )
EV/Ton (x)
6.7
0.7
3.5
22
8.1
0.7
4.6
22
6.0
0.6
2.9
21
2014E 2015E 2016E
25.6
3.5
2.7
12.8
11.0
10.7
24.9
30.1
2.8
2.2
29.1
-17.0
8.6
7.6
32.2
33.6
4.2
3.0
39.0
34.0
10.6
10.7
26.8
CMP: INR235
TP: INR302
Buy
Adj EPS (INR) 35.0
BV/Sh. (INR) 318.2 337.9 366.4
Birla Corp's (BCORP) 3QFY14 performance was below estimates, with EBITDA/ton
of INR279/ton (v/s est. INR376/ton).
Net sales grew by 16% YoY (flat QoQ) to INR7.1b (v/s est. INR7.2b) and EBITDA de-
grew by 42% YoY (-49% QoQ) to INR299m (v/s est. INR516m). However, tax write-
back boosted PAT to INR160m (v/s est. INR357m).
Cement volumes grew 16.5% YoY (-2.4% QoQ) to 1.81mt (v/s est. 1.86mt),
benefiting from commencement of mechanized mining at Rajasthan plant from
Aug-13. Cement realizations declined ~INR200/YoY (flat QoQ) to INR3,579/ton (v/s
est. INR3,591/ton).
Cement business EBITDA/ton was at INR279 (v/s est. INR376/ton v/s INR344/ton
in 2QFY14 v/s INR451/ton in 3QFY13), impacted by pricing pressure in key markets
of North and East India, and cost push on energy, freight and negative operating
leverage. This is despite the savings due to commencement of supply of captive
limestone at Rajasthan, although ~30% of Rajasthan plant’s requirement is still
met through open market limestone.
The Ministry of Coal de-allocated BCORP’s Bikram Coal Block due to lack of
development as per milestones. Company is in the process of taking appropriate
legal recourse.
We lower the estimates by 2%/9% to ~INR29/39 to factor the a) higher energy and
freight cost, b) lower tax and c) deferred capex at Rajasthan.
The stock trades at 8.1x/6x FY14E/FY15E EPS, EV/EBITDA of 4.6/2.9x and EV/ton of
USD22/21. Maintain
Buy
with a target price of ~INR302 (~4x FY15E EV/EBITDA or
~USD30/ton).
Jinesh Gandhi
(Jinesh@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5416
Sandipan Pal
(Sandipan.Pal@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5436
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.