13 February 2014
3QFY14 Results Update | Sector:
Healthcare
Sun Pharma
BSE SENSEX
20,193
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel.Per (%)
S&P CNX
6,001
SUNP IN
2,071.2
650/328
6/5/56
CMP: INR615
TP: INR750
Buy
M.Cap.(INR b)/(USD b) 1,273.1/20.5
Financials & Valuation (INR Billion)
Y/E MAR
Sales
EBITDA
Rep. PAT
Rep.EPS
(INR) PAT
Core
Core EPS
(INR) (%)
EPS Gr.
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
Payout (%)
Valuations
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
EV/EBITDA
( )
Div.Yld (%)
27.2
7.3
15.3
0.7
23.4
5.6
15.3
0.7
20.7
4.3
15.3
0.7
2014E 2015E 2016E
163.6 187.1 230.9
72.3
30.3
14.6
46.8
22.6
53.1
28.9
29.4
19.4
80.6
60.8
29.3
54.4
26.2
16.2
109.2
27.2
41.3
12.5
100.0
79.5
38.4
61.6
29.8
13.4
142.9
23.6
40.5
11.2
BV/Sh.(INR) 84.0
Sun Pharma’s (SUNP) 3QFY14 results were above estimates. The company
reported 50% revenue growth to INR42.9b (in-line), 57% EBITDA growth to
INR19.8b (beat of 8%) and 74% PAT growth to INR15.3b (beat of 14%).
US formulations growth at 57% YoY in USD terms was marginally above
estimates, driven by stronger-than-expected performance at Taro Pharma.
Domestic formulations growth continues to outpace industry due to limited
exposure to the pricing policy and higher contribution from fast growing chronic
therapies. Growth in RoW formulations was in line, while bulk drugs exports grew
below estimates due to increased captive consumption.
We estimate one-off contribution (from gDoxil, gCymbalta and gPrandin) at
INR4.5b to sales, INR3.6b to EBITDA and INR2.7b to PAT for the quarter.
Adjusted for these one-offs, we estimate core revenue at INR38.3b (miss of 2%),
core EBITDA at INR16.1b (beat of 2%) and core PAT at INR12.6b (beat of 9%).
Core EBITDA margin was down 30bp YoY to 42.1%, but 180bp above estimate of
40.3% due to stronger-than-expected performance from Taro.
SUNP has increased its sales growth guidance for FY14 to 29% from 25% earlier
(in constant currency).
Excluding the contribution from Taro, SUNP’s sales/EBITDA was in line, while PAT
was above estimate due to higher other income and lower taxes.
Post 3QFY14 results, we have largely retained our core earnings assumptions over
FY14E-16E. We estimate core EPS to witness a CAGR of 26% over FY13-16E. The stock
trades at 23.4x FY15E and 20.7x FY16E core EPS. We value SUNP’s core business at
INR713/share (24x FY16E) and add INR28/share for the Doxil opportunity and
INR9/share for other Para IV opportunities to arrive at a target price of INR750/share,
an upside of 22% from current levels. Maintain
Buy.
Alok Dalal(Alok.Dalal@MotilalOswal.com);+91
22 3982 5584
Hardick Bora(Hardick.Bora@MotilalOswal.com);+91
22 3982 5423
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.