Wednesday, February 19, 2014
Market Overview
Resurgent BMD palm oil market and buoyancy in
cbt soy complex is leading broader rally in
oilseeds complex. Soy meal remains secular bull
market and a zigzag rally in CPO looks secular in
nature and may attain much more peaks.
Among edible complex, soyoil moved into
positive carry after a prolong inversion. Seed
prices still remain inverted. However present
contango in soyoil may be elusive and we need
to watch carry for next few days. Soyseed retain
upside momentum. Mustard complex ruled
steady. Castor complex ruled steady to
marginally firm amid slow arrivals. Overall bias
is bearish in both markets.
Coriander futures recovered on fresh bulls
buying. Jeera market lost gains and resume its
southward journey. New crop arrivals have
started. Quality, quality and yield are excellent
in Gujarat and Rajasthan Bias is to sell on rally.
Exotic spices are stealing the show. Grabbing
some actions as volatility has returned after long
hibernation. Cardamom ended lower on fresh
bouts of selling. Mentha futures continued its
downwards journey. Inventory is still seen
comfortable.
Cotton market ruled mix amid two way buying
and selling. Kapas futures are reeling under
selling pressure as underlying ready kalian
cotton is in a free fall. Sanker cotton traded at
MCX ruled firm. MCX cotton-NCDEX spread has
generated return on around 40% on annualize
basis in last 3 month and we think it is still a
juicy trade. Cottonseed cake and cotton cake
market is mild bearish. We are seeing sharp
selloff in cottonseed during coming days. We
have been telling that Kapas fundamentals look
very weak relative to cotton.
Chana future ruled steady. Market seen
lackluster. Demand in chana dal is still poor.
Market is well supplied. Guar and gum futures
settled mild weak. Short term trend is bearish.
Commodity
Chana
Turmeric
Jeera
Soyabean
Soyoil
R M Seed
CPO
Sugar
Wheat
Mentha Oil
Castor Seed
Potato
Exchange
NCDEX
NCDEX
NCDEX
NCDEX
NCDEX
NCDEX
MCX
NCDEX
NCDEX
MCX
NCDEX
MCX
Expiry
Feb
Apr
Mar
Feb
Feb
Feb
Feb
Feb
Feb
Feb
Feb
Mar
Price
2968
7346
11630
3970
691.6
3355
559.8
2750
1676
767.6
4222
1129.2
%
Change
-0.47%
-0.65%
-1.08%
0.14%
-0.35%
-0.83%
0.16%
0.00%
0.06%
-4.30%
-0.52%
1.01%
Chart of the Day: CPO
As shown on the 240-minutes chart, MCX CPO has
been in an uptrend since the past three weeks
forming higher lows and highs after breaking out of
a downward-sloping channel. The price currently
faces trend line resistance near 572 level and hence
a small corrective dip could be possible.
1
Please refer to disclaimer at the end of the report.