6 March 2014
Update | Sector: Technology
Persistent Systems
BSE Sensex
21,514
S&P CNX
6,401
CMP: INR1,181
TP: INR1,170
Under Review
Traction in IP-led revenues and platforms
EBITDA margins expectation at 25-26%, PES to underperform company
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
PSYS IN
40.0
1,220/477
19/96/97
47.3
0.8
IP-led growth to be driven by HPCA; strong potential in rCloud
PES to underperform on long tail of small non-growing customers
Multiple efforts to revive PES growth, fruition may take 12 months
Expect steady EBITDA margins in the range of 25-26%
IP-led growth to be driven by HPCA; strong potential in rCloud
PSYS is confident of growing its IP-led revenues at 20%+ in FY15 without the
addition of any new IPs, driven largely by HPCA, and is also seeing strong scaling
potential rCloud after adding new capabilities.
Financial Snapshot (INR Billion)
Y/E March
2014E 2015E 2016E
Sales
EBITDA
Adj. PAT
Adj. EPS (INR)
EPS Gr. (%)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
Payout (%)
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
16.8
4.4
2.5
63.6
35.6
22.9
16.1
22.0
18.6
3.8
19.5
5.0
3.1
78.4
23.2
23.6
18.6
17.9
15.1
3.2
23.4
6.0
3.9
97.5
24.4
24.2
19.0
16.4
12.1
2.6
PES to underperform on long tail of small non-growing customers
Growth in Product Engineering Services (PES) has been suffering due to a long
customer tail. While the top-clients budgets imply growth above 15% in the
bucket, overall growth may yet be subdued due to growth challenges in the
remainder of the PES business.
Multiple efforts to revive PES growth, fruition may take 12 months
PSYS is looking at client mining approach, and pruning of non-strategic tail in
order to improve quality of revenues and growth prospects in its bread-n-butter
business (60% of revenues in 3QFY14). PSYS expects its focus on Product
Engineering for Enterprise customers to yield results in 12 months time. This
could be a likely fillip to its growth in PES segment, along with mining ISVs.
Shareholding pattern (%)
As on
Dec-13 Sep-13 Dec-12
Promoter
39.0
39.0
39.0
Domestic Inst 14.4
16.8
17.3
Foreign
23.7
20.7
17.4
Others
23.0
23.5
26.3
Expect steady EBITDA margins in the range of 25-26%
Margin headwinds from wage hikes will be partially offset by business mix and
higher utilization. While EBITDA margin in 3QFY14 was 27.7% and may expand
further in 4Q, stable margin outlook going forward is 25-26%.
Stock Performance (1-year)
A play on new technologies and scalability
We see PSYS as one of the few companies in the tier-II IT space with the
potential to grow revenues in the range of or above 20%, given its focus on the
fast-growing SMAC business, multi-year relationships with marquee clientele in
the ISV space and unlikelihood of obsolescence in the segment over the
medium-to-long-term. We expect PSYS to grow its USD revenues at a CAGR of
19% and EPS at a CAGR of 24% over FY14-16. Our current target price of
INR1,170 discounts FY16E EPS by 12x, implying 3.5% upside. Our rating for the
stock is
Under Review.
Ashish Chopra
(Ashish.Chopra@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5424
Siddharth Vora
(Siddharth.Vora@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5585
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.