6 March 2014
Update | Sector: Healthcare
Divi's Laboratories
BSE Sensex
21,514
S&P CNX
6,401
CMP: INR1,434
TP: INR1,745
Buy
Full steam ahead
USFDA inspection - key near term trigger, higher dividend payout likely
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
DIVI IN
132.7
1,459/905
0/35/27
190.3
3.1
Financial Snapshot (INR Billion)
Y/E March
2014E 2015E 2016E
Sales
EBITDA
Net Profit
Adj. EPS (INR)
EPS Gr. (%)
BV/Sh. (INR)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
25.5
10.4
8.2
61.9
36.4
29.9
38.2
23.2
6.4
31.4
12.5
9.4
70.7
14.3
28.9
36.7
20.3
5.4
37.9
15.3
11.6
87.2
23.4
30.5
38.8
16.4
4.7
Strong operational performance has been driven by growth in existing
business. USFDA approval to further drive growth.
Management does not expect major capex over the next two to three
years, as the focus will remain on sweating recently-expanded capacities.
In the absence of any attractive expansion avenues, DIVI may consider
increasing its dividend payout, going forward.
With a healthy order book and robust business outlook, management is
confident of growing sales by at least 20% next year, with EBITDA margin
of at least 40%. We expect earnings to post 20% CAGR over FY14E-16E.
Reiterate Buy and retain as top pick in mid cap space.
Business outlook remains strong, preferred partner in CRAMs
Despite declining R&D productivity in the innovator pipeline, consolidation at
the top and threat from patent cliff, DIVI remains confident of its business
outlook. It continues to be the preferred partner for most of the top pharma
MNCs. Over the years, DIVI has added value in the R&D process for its partners
and presently enjoys preference over other less established CRAM players. In
the generic APIs segment, a focused approach since inception enabled the
company to develop superior chemistry skills, which enables it to retain
significant market share along with high profitability in some of the mature
molecules like Naproxen. DIVI believes it is possible to replicate a similar model
in certain molecules that recently lost patent protection.
225.5 264.4 308.0
Shareholding pattern %
As on
Dec-13 Sep-13 Dec-12
Promoter
Dom. Inst
Foreign
Others
55.8
16.8
10.2
17.2
55.8
16.7
9.6
17.9
55.8
16.9
10.1
17.2
Financial health to improve further, higher dividend payout likely
DIVI does not expect any significant capex to grow its revenue by 15-20% over
the next three years. Overall current capacity utilization remains at 70-75% and
is likely to scale up with the USFDA approval for DSN SEZ. Management also
expects the EBITDA margin to sustain at 40% in the medium term,
notwithstanding any unfavorable currency movement. Hence, it is open to an
increase in dividend payout, going forward.
Stock Performance (1-year)
Comfortable valuations despite recent run-up, reiterate Buy
We believe DIVI has created a sustainable business model by maintaining a
focused business strategy which revolves around respecting IPRs and refraining
from manufacturing formulations. This is reflected in its consistency in
achieving above industry profitability and return ratios. Further, with an
expected improvement in dividend payout, we believe that DIVI should at least
trade at sector average valuations. Hence, we have increased our target
multiple to 20x (earlier 18x) on FY16E EPS. We reiterate a
Buy
with a revised
target price of INR1,745 and retain DIVI as our top pick in the mid cap space.
Alok Dalal
(Alok.Dalal@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5584
Hardick Bora
(Hardick.Bora@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5423
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.