6 March 2014
Update | Sector: Technology
KPIT Technologies
BSE Sensex
21,514
S&P CNX
6,401
CMP: INR166
TP: INR220
Buy
SAP could grow in double digits, drive EBITDA
Auto Engineering Services to be key growth driver
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
KPIT IN
194.0
189/92
-3/14/46
32.2
0.5
SAP turnaround will drive revenue acceleration in FY15 (13.3% USD revenue
growth estimate YoY).
Auto Engineering Services (24% of revenues) is a key driver of long term growth.
Revenue acceleration, EBITDA margin expansion (170bp YoY estimate) and
discontinuation of lower hedge rate forex losses drive are estimate of 32% EPS
growth in FY15.
Expect FCF to improve owing to limited likelihood of big-ticket acquisitions,
completion of earn-out payments.
Financial Snapshot (INR Billion)
Y/E March
2014E 2015E 2016E
Sales
EBITDA
PAT
EPS (INR)
EPS Gr. (%)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
27.1
4.3
2.5
12.8
21.8
21.9
27.9
12.9
2.6
6.9
30.8
5.4
3.4
17.0
32.1
23.5
29.9
9.8
2.1
4.8
34.7
6.1
3.9
19.7
16.4
21.8
27.5
8.4
1.7
3.6
Turnaround in SAP to drive growth acceleration in FY15
9MFY14 revenues in SAP have declined 13% YoY. However, on the back of deal
signings, SAP should return to growth in FY15 and despite a weak exit, and USD
revenue growth in SAP could be in double digits. This drives our expectation of
13.3% YoY growth in FY15E USD revenues v/s 8.6% in FY14E.
Auto Engineering is a key driver of long term growth, IES seeing traction
Auto Engineering Services (24% of revenues) is likely to be a key growth driver
for the company (among fastest growing segments for the industry in FY14 as
per NASSCOM). The segment is KPIT’s core business and it expects revenues
from Auto Engineering to exceed 30% of the company’s revenues in the next 3
years, as the company scales to USD1b in revenues. IES should continue its
strong growth trend driven by JD Edwards. Growth prospects in JD Edwards are
sanguine for at least another couple of years. Despite continued challenge in
top account, growth in FY15 should be at least in line with industry.
Shareholding pattern (%)
As on
Dec-13 Sep-13 Dec-12
Promoter
22.5
22.9
24.3
Dom. Inst
7.0
11.1
10.7
Foreign
51.6
48.0
43.6
Others
18.9
18.0
21.3
Expect 32% earnings growth in FY15
Stock Performance (1-year)
Revival in SAP growth in FY15 will propel the segment’s margins to positive mid
single digits from -4% to -5% as on 9MFY14, which will be a ~200bp margin
tailwind to overall company margins. We expect EBITDA margin to expand
170bp YoY to 17.5% in FY15. That, in combination with discontinuation of forex
losses of the magnitude in current year drive our expectation of 32% YoY
growth in FY15 earnings.
FCF likely to improve going forward, valuations limit risk
Given limited likelihood of any big ticket acquisition going forward, we expect
Free cash flow generation to improve for KPIT. Maintain
Buy,
with a price target
of INR220, which discounts FY16E EPS by 11x.
Ashish Chopra
(Ashish.Chopra@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5424
Siddharth Vora
(Siddharth.Vora@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5585
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.