Metals & Energy Daily– Detailed Report

Monday, March 10, 2014

Commodity

Gold / USD Spot

Silver / USD Spot

Crude oil $ Spot

COMEX Copper $

LME Copper (3M)

LME Aluminum (3M)

LME Nickel (3M)

LME Lead (3M)

LME Zinc (3M)

Last

1339.85

20.89

102.82

343.5

6715

1756.5

15104

2082

2047.25

Chg

-10.89

-0.55

-1.9

-62

-9

-160

-17

-10.75

% Chg

-0.81%

-2.57%

0.98%

-0.55%

-0.88%

-0.50%

-1.03%

-0.79%

-0.51%

Market Overview (Economy)

Asian markets are under pressure at the

start of the week as a set of very

disappointing Chinese data over the

weekend and a bond default in China’s

solar sector weighed on sentiment

China’s exports dropped 18.1% in

February from a year earlier, producer

prices slid 2%, and the inflation rate was

2% for February

Earlier on Friday, the NFP data indicated

that the US economy added 175k jobs in

February, better than expectations which

lifted the dollar against most peers

Equity

BSE Sensex Index

S&P CNX NIFTY

Hang Seng Index

Shanghai Index

Nikkei 225 Index

DAX Index

CAC 40 Index

Dow Jones

NASDAQ 100 Index

Last

21919.8

6526.7

22660.5

2057.9

15274.1

9350.8

4366.4

16452.7

3703.4

Chg

405.9

125.5

-42.5

-1.7

139.3

-192.1

-50.6

30.8

-17.5

% Chg

1.89%

1.96%

-0.19%

-0.08%

0.92%

-2.01%

-1.15%

0.19%

-0.47%

Precious Metals

Precious metals are trading lower at the

start of the week as concerns over China

and better US economic data is weighing

on prices

Also, a report by China Gold Association

suggested that gold demand in China may

decline 17% to 250 tons this quarter from

a year earlier

Concerns over Ukraine might keep prices

underpinned along with a slight uptick in

SPDR inflows which increased by 1.50

tons to 805.20 tons on Friday

For MCX Gold, Rs.29900/29800 should

continue to act as a strong support on the

downside. Immediate resistance on the

upside is at 30260 and any sustainable

move above the same could target

30420/30510 once again

Silver is expected to continue its sideways

movement before giving us direction.

Immediate strong resistance is at

46760/47525/47760 while support is at

45800/45700 level

A report by China Gold Association

suggested that gold demand in China may

decline 17% to 250 tons this quarter from

a year earlier

Please refer to disclaimer at the end of the report.

Base Metals

Industrial metals were trading lower today

morning after the sharp drop on Friday. Copper

dropped to its lowest in more than four years

today after weak Chinese trade data fanned

concerns over its metals industry

China's

exports

unexpectedly

tumbled

February, swinging the trade balance into deficit

and adding to fears of a slowdown in the

economy despite the Lunar New Year holidays

being blamed for the slide

Data showed that hedge funds and money

managers turned copper markets into a net short

in the week to March 4, echoing the sharp drop in

prices

MCX Copper failed to breach mentioned

resistance near 444.50 and reversed sharply.

Immediate

strong

resistance

422.50/428.50/434 while strong support is at

414/410 level. Selling on rise is advisable.

Nickel seems strongest of the lot and looks to

trade sideways to up as long as 915 is held on

the downside

Hedge funds and money managers

turned copper markets into a net

short in the week to March 4, echoing

the sharp drop in prices

LME Inventory

Commodity

Copper

Zinc

Lead

Nickel

Aluminium

Change

-3175

15875

1254

10825

Source: Reuters

Energy

Oil prices are trading slightly weaker after

gaining at the end of last week on the back of

better employment data from the U.S.

While concerns over Russia-Ukraine will

underpin prices, soft data from China over the

weekend has raised concerns about Chinese oil

demand

Also Crude oil could jump higher as Libya’s

government vowed to prevent a tanker from

leaving a rebel-held oil port and warned about

bombing it

MCX Crude is in a pullback mode after sharp

drop from 6550 to 6110. Immediate resistance

is now placed at 6355/6370 level while strong

intraday

support

can

seen

6250/6175/6125 levels

Natural gas retested its previous low near

276.50 and bounced sharply. Strong support on

the downside is at 276.50 while strong

resistance is at 285.50. Expect a range bound

movement as long as price is stuck in this range

While concerns over Russia-Ukraine

will underpin prices, soft data from

China over the weekend has raised

concerns about Chinese oil demand

Please refer to disclaimer at the end of the report.

Level Playing Sheet

Commodity

Gold

Silver

Crude Oil

Copper

Zinc

Lead

Nickel

Aluminum

Exchange

MCX

COMEX

MCX

COMEX

MCX

NYMEX

MCX

Expiry

Apr

May

Mar

Apr

Mar

30130

1338

46205

20.90

6305

102.58

421.40

126.15

127.75

936.50

106.60

29723

1317

44899

20.29

6068

101.01

410.43

123.65

125.38

921.23

104.93

29927

1327

45552

20.59

6187

101.80

415.92

124.90

126.57

928.87

105.77

Pivot

30133

1340

46488

21.07

6249

102.35

426.53

127.10

128.58

939.83

106.98

30337

1351

47141

21.37

6368

103.14

432.02

128.35

129.77

947.47

107.82

30543

1364

48077

21.85

6430

103.69

442.63

130.55

131.78

958.43

109.03

Trend

Bearish

Flat

Bullish

Bearish

Conviction

Moderate

High

Low

Moderate

Range

29825 - 30235

1322 - 1345

45226 - 46815

20.44 - 21.22

6218 - 6399

102.1 - 103.4

413.2 - 429.3

124.3 - 127.7

126 - 129.2

925 - 944

105.4 - 107.4

For any details contact:

Commodities Advisory Desk - +91 22 3958 3600

commoditiesresearch@motilaloswal.com

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