21 March 2014
Update | Sector: Capital Goods
ABB
BSE Sensex
21,754
S&P CNX
6,493
CMP: INR785
TP: INR720
Neutral
Insights from ABB Group
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
ABB IN
211.9
829/448
27/32/21
170.6
2.8
Strategic initiatives driving profitable growth
We analyzed the recent performance trends of ABB Group and also the
management comments to gain an understanding on the strategic initiatives,
particularly in the emerging markets context. The intent was to understand
and comprehend the context of these from ABB India’s perspective.
ABB Group: Several Strategic initiatives to drive profitability
Financial Snapshot (INR b)
Y/E DEC
2013 2014E 2015E
Net Sales
EBITDA
Adj PAT
Adj EPS (INR)
EPS Gr (%)
BV/Sh (INR)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
Payout (%)
Valuations
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
Div. Yield (%)
94.0
6.2
35.9
0.4
55.2
5.9
25.8
0.8
38.3
5.4
20.1
1.2
77.2
4.6
1.7
8.3
28.7
6.7
7.4
40.9
82.6
6.5
3.0
14.2
70.3
10.9
10.8
40.0
92.7
8.2
4.3
20.5
44.2
145.0
14.7
14.1
40.0
126.4 134.0
Cost rationalization
has been made an important part of the organizational
DNA, with further USD1.2b of cost out (4% of COGS) in 2013.
Increased
focus on service portfolio
has been identified as a key building
block for improved profitability. Service business contributes ~19-20% of
ABB Group’s CY13 revenues, and target is to capture 40% of the installed
base (vs 25% currently).
Reorienting the
Projects business
and attempt is to improve the portfolio
quality in terms of right commercial discipline, risk mitigation, etc.
ABB India: Exports / Services are key drivers; ‘In Country-For Country’
an important initiative started showing results
Shareholding pattern (%)
Dec-13 Sep-13 Dec-12
Promoter
Foreign
Others
75.0
4.3
8.4
75.0
12.3
4.2
8.5
75.0
12.9
3.5
8.6
Domestic Inst 12.3
Stock Performance (1-year)
Exports from India have increased from INR5b in 2010 to INR9b in 2012 and
likely to increase to INR15b in 2015. Also, contribution of service business in
revenues has increased from 10% in 2010 to 12% in 2012 and target is 18%
in 2015. Both these businesses entail improved margins, with management
in the past stating that the margins on exports are better than domestic;
and service segment enjoying high double digit margins.
Material and operational cost rationalization
is an important focus area;
and these initiatives have led to a sharp decline in RM costs from ~74-75%
of revenues in CY10/11 to 70% in CY13. There exists room for further
rationalization and the journey till date is just 50% of the targets.
'In Country, For Country'
aims to make the product more competitive and
relevant.
Design-to-cost
is an important initiative globally, which aims at
understanding the cost base that can be allowed and then design products
towards that. In India, 18+ of such projects are under implementation; and
there have been few successes already.
Valuation and view:
We believe ABB could be one of the important
beneficiaries given the increased share of products (~65% of revenues), which
are largely beneficiaries in ‘early to mid cycle’. ABB is also exposed to several
important trends. Current earnings are impacted by legacy projects and
negative operating leverage in products; and are thus not a reflection of the
long term potential. Maintain
Neutral.
Satyam Agarwal
(AgarwalS@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5410
Nirav Vasa
(Nirav.Vasa@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5422
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.

ABB
ABB Group: Strategic initiatives driving profitability
#1
Cost rationalization an important part of the organization DNA
Cost rationalization has been made an important part of the organizational DNA,
with further USD1.2b of cost out (4% of COGS) in 2013. The cost reduction is fairly
spread with every division contributing to the reduction.
The key levers are centered around
operational excellence
and supply chain
optimization. ABB Group has more than 5,000 projects on operational
excellence running globally. Lean / Six Sigma has not only been applied on the
manufacturing shop floor but also in the processes on the overhead side, which
has yielded strong results.
On the
sourcing
side, the best cost sourcing is still yielding good results. The
company now increasingly enters more into joint sales and operations planning
where jointly with the suppliers, the attempt is to optimize the whole value
chain (including the inventory levels, logistics stream, etc). This enables ABB to
take costs out on both sides, which is beneficial for both in the supply chain
area.
Cost Savings: an integral part of the organizational DNA
Cost savings (USD B)
Cost savings (% of cost of sales)
Cost savings by Division, 2013
Source: MOSL, Company
ABB India: Management commentary in October 2013
Material and operational cost rationalization is an important focus area; and these
initiatives have led to a sharp decline in RM costs from ~74-75% of revenues in
CY10/11 to 70% in CY13. There exists room for further rationalization and the
journey till date is ~50% of the targets. Composition of cost reduction achieved till
date includes: Better negotiations 41%, Alternate sourcing 24%, Higher Localization
23%, Design optimization 12%, etc. The savings are widely spread across various
parameters and thus the trends should be more sustainable. Even in India, 300+
operational excellence projects underway.
21 March 2014
2

ABB
Increased focus on service portfolio: Key building block for
improved profitability
ABB Group: Increasing
share of service segment
ABB Group kicked off the service strategy ~2.5 years ago and the goal was to grow
the service business faster than the group in total. This is also positive from margins
perspective as the service margins exceed that of the group margins.
This strategy is also important in terms of reinforcing the longer-term commitment
with the customers, which are typically making investments in buying products and
systems that are 20-40-year investments. Thus, as a value proposition, it was
important for a supplier like ABB to be there along the entire life cycle of that
investment: in terms of installation, maintenance, training new people as they come
on, refurbishment and up-gradation of the equipment, etc.
ABB Group has an active running installed base of ~USD$300b and over the past 2.5
years, the company has ~USD200b now catalogued and thus knows where they sit
by address, type of equipments, etc. This database has enabled the company to now
mine the installed base for additional revenue growth. Today, ABB Group is
capturing 25% of the annual opportunity on that, and target is to capture about 40%
of that installed base opportunity as an annual annuity.
ABB India: Management commentary in October 2013
Contribution of service business in revenues has increased from 10% in 2010 to 11%
in 2013 and target is 18% in 2015. Service segment enjoys high double digit margins.
Service business drivers include: Spares and consumables, Maintenance and Repairs,
Engineering and Consulting, Extension upgrades and Retrofits, End of life services,
Training, etc. The existing installed base of ABB in India is being targeted for ramping
up the service business, including Value Added Services (for instance energy
efficiency, etc).
#3
‘In Country, For Country’ – An important differentiator
Design-to-cost
is an important initiative globally, which aims at understanding the
cost base that can be allowed and then design products towards that. That is a key
element of target-costing approach in product design. Thus, ‘In Country, For
Country’ is an initiative that aims to make the product more competitive and
relevant: by optimizing the design to suit local requirements, or reducing the
manufacturing costs by increased localization / improved supply chain, etc.
ABB India developed an off-grid solar-driven pump solution
that helps farmers
to get the water out of the ground. It's a combination of a panel, an inverter, a
drive and a pump and operates independent of diesel fuel and grid power. The
government of India has subsidized this product, and in 4QCY13, the first 500
sets have been dispatched. There is an interesting market in several of the
emerging markets globally for this product.
21 March 2014
3

ABB
Combined inverters and drives for solar-powered pumps in emerging markets
Off-grid solution for
farmers; Built-in tracking to
follow the Sun for full pump
flow; Solution includes ABB
LV components such as
relays, terminal blocks and
contactors; Installed base of
over 500 pumps
Source: ABB Group
Increased localization to better penetrate regional markets:
ABB India recently
commissioned two new factories for switchgear and transformers. These
factories are producing locally designed products; and are being used not only
for local supply but also as export house. Increased localization to better
penetrate regional markets is also an important part of the global strategy.
Transformer factory
Switchgear factory
Source: ABB Group
Source: ABB Group
ABB India: Management commentary in October 2013
For ABB, exports have increased from INR5b in 2010 to INR9b in 2012 and are likely
to increase to INR15b in 2015. Margins in exports are higher than domestic. Key
products driving growth in exports include: HV Breakers, MV Switchgears,
Transformers, Substations, MCBs, LV Systems, Plant Automation, etc; and key
geographies include Europe, America, Middle East, South Asia and Africa. In India,
18+ ‘In country-For country’ Indigenization projects are underway.
21 March 2014
4

ABB
#4
Project business: Strategy Re-orientation
ABB Inc is in the process of reorienting the Projects business, and basically the
actions are in two buckets: i) Fixing the project issues and the company has invested
in more technical and functional expertise ii) Improve the portfolio quality in terms
of right commercial discipline, the right risk mitigation, etc. Basically the pricing
models need to reflect the intrinsic risk of the business to make sure that the
company is rightly positioned on the commercial terms side.
ABB India: Management commentary in October 2013
Project business should show signs of revival in profitability given the strategic
reorientation:
Key part of the strategy includes
-
Higher share of manufactured
products (vs just being a procurement agency which increases the risk profile),
Preference for cash over revenues (focus on projects where clearances are in-place;
dispatch of materials post visibility of cash flows) and Better risk return profiling
(including for instance compensation for project delays for factors beyond control,
etc). The management stated that the gap between the bid margins and realized
margins have narrowed, which is commendable. For the existing projects, as per the
accounting policy, all the possible losses are provided for given the delayed
execution, but ABB continues to be in negotiations and some parts could be
recovered. Also, execution delays impacts cost absorption particularly in project
business.
ABB India: Margins in projects business have shown sustained improvement, despite constrained revenue growth
Revenues impacted by constrained environment
50
25
0
-25
-50
Process Automation ttm revenue growth (%)
Power Systems ttm revenue growth (%)
Margins show sustained improvement
20
10
0
-10
-20
Process Automation EBIT margin (%)
Power Systems EBIT margin (%)
Source: Company, MOSL
21 March 2014
5

ABB
Valuation and view
We believe ABB could be one of the important beneficiaries given the increased
share of products (~65% of revenues), which are largely beneficiaries in ‘early to mid
cycle’. ABB is also exposed to several important trends. Current earnings are
impacted by legacy projects and negative operating leverage in products; and are
thus not a reflection of the long term potential. Maintain
Neutral.
ABB: 1 Year forward P/E
PE (x)
300
225
150
75
0
65.5
15.1
46.3
Peak(x)
Avg(x)
Min(x)
257.2
ABB: 1 Year forward P/B
21.3
16.3
11.3
6.8
6.3
1.3
3.2
5.3
PB (x)
Peak(x)
Avg(x)
Min(x)
16.4
21 March 2014
6

ABB
ABB India: Operational Matrix
Year ended
Revenues (INR m)
LV Products
Discrete Automation & Motion
Process automation
Power products
Power systems
Gross Segmental Sales
Revenue Growth (% YoY)
LV Products
Discrete Automation & Motion
Process automation
Power products
Power systems
Revenue Growth
Order intake (INR m)
LV Products
Discrete Automation & Motion
Process automation
Power products
Power systems
Gross Segmental Intake
EBIT Margins (%)
LV Products
Discrete Automation & Motion
Process automation
Power products
Power systems
2007
2008
2009
3,825
14,072
12,100
19,936
17,192
67,124
2010
4,486
15,929
11,887
18,155
18,267
68,723
2011
5,399
17,993
13,219
20,008
23,624
80,243
2012
6,174
17,753
13,568
20,853
22,421
80,768
2013
6,769
18,237
12,480
21,304
23,851
82,640
2014E
8,799
18,707
11,232
24,500
25,043
88,281
2015E
10,999
19,807
12,580
28,175
27,547
99,109
11,053
16,326
22,127
49,506
13,334
20,492
23,054
56,880
20.4%
34.6%
46.6%
38.0%
20.6%
25.5%
4.2%
19.5%
-9.3%
-2.7%
-25.4%
-9.7%
17.3%
13.2%
-1.8%
-8.9%
6.3%
1.3%
20.4%
13.0%
11.2%
10.2%
29.3%
16.8%
14.4%
-1.3%
2.6%
4.2%
-5.1%
0.7%
9.6%
2.7%
-8.0%
2.2%
6.4%
2.3%
30.0%
2.6%
-10.0%
15.0%
5.0%
6.8%
25.0%
5.9%
12.0%
15.0%
10.0%
12.3%
15,395
20,433
30,029
80,457
15,659
24,062
25,608
86,008
4,428
18,614
13,151
23,742
33,478
93,413
4,636
15,226
15,336
15,903
18,324
69,425
5,650
19,262
11,451
22,568
32,041
90,972
6,900
19,530
10,530
19,770
17,500
74,230
8,280
16,829
7,898
17,793
15,750
66,549
10,764
19,366
9,082
21,352
18,900
79,464
13,993
22,163
10,444
25,622
21,735
93,958
12.1%
13.0%
10.7%
13.9%
12.7%
8.8%
5.5%
12.8%
12.8%
10.9%
0.4%
0.4%
8.3%
6.9%
4.5%
-6.0%
6.3%
11.5%
2.9%
5.0%
0.0%
6.4%
11.0%
-1.1%
6.6%
-0.6%
3.7%
4.9%
6.2%
6.9%
8.0%
9.0%
5.7%
7.0%
8.0%
8.0%
9.0%
9.5%
3.9%
6.0%
7.0%
Source: MOSL, Company
21 March 2014
7

ABB
Financials and valuation
Income Statement
Y/E December
Net Sales
Change (%)
Raw Materials
Staff Cost
Other Mfg. Expenses
Selling Expenses
Admin. & Other Exp.
EBITDA
% of Net Sales
Depreciation
Interest
Other Income
Extra-ordinary Items (net)
PBT
Tax
Rate (%)
PAT
Adjusted PAT
Change (%)
2010
63,593
2.0
26,166
4,901
22,455
7,309
1,202
1,560
2.5
517
174
133
0
1,002
370
36.9
632
632
-82.2
2011
74,490
17.1
30,921
5,868
23,764
5,552
5,020
3,365
4.5
795
307
415
0
2,678
832
31.1
1,846
1,846
192.0
2012
75,650
1.6
31,718
6,196
23,344
5,517
5,511
3,365
4.4
941
432
71
0
2,062
688
33.4
1,374
1,374
-25.5
2013
77,220
2.1
32,106
6,506
23,009
5,810
5,155
4,635
6.0
1,033
1,011
70
24
2,636
956
36.3
1,680
1,769
28.7
(INR Million)
2014E
82,582
6.9
33,481
6,831
23,845
6,410
5,499
6,516
7.9
1,224
1,000
73
0
4,365
1,353
31.0
3,012
3,012
70.3
2015E
92,671
12.2
36,212
7,651
28,603
6,784
5,252
8,170
8.8
1,352
600
77
0
6,295
1,951
31.0
4,343
4,343
44.2
Balance Sheet
Y/E December
Share Capital
Reserves
Net Worth
Loans
Net Deffered Tax Liability
Capital Employed
Gross Fixed Assets
Less: Depreciation
Net Fixed Assets
Capital WIP
Investments
Curr. Assets
Inventory
Debtors
Cash & Bank Balance
Loans & Advances
Current Liab. & Prov.
Creditors
Other Liabilities
Provisions
Net Current Assets
Application of Funds
E: MOSL Estimates
2010
424
23,813
24,237
0
-46
24,191
9,977
2,318
7,660
577
168
49,262
6,979
29,260
5,871
7,153
33,476
31,175
454
1,846
15,786
24,191
2011
424
24,921
25,345
0
-224
25,121
14,618
2,935
11,683
744
506
49,701
9,256
30,825
2,559
7,062
37,514
35,241
0
2,273
12,187
25,121
2012
424
25,557
25,981
3,277
-148
29,109
15,855
3,783
12,072
1,170
524
50,699
9,204
32,644
767
8,085
35,356
32,949
0
2,407
15,343
29,109
2013
424
26,352
26,776
6,201
-148
32,829
17,894
4,880
13,014
1,170
524
54,370
9,889
32,357
3,166
8,959
36,249
33,613
0
2,637
18,121
32,829
2014E
424
27,973
28,397
5,891
-148
34,140
19,781
6,104
13,677
1,170
524
57,349
10,616
34,297
3,601
8,835
38,581
35,554
0
3,027
18,768
34,140
2015E
424
30,310
30,734
2,946
-148
33,532
21,822
7,456
14,366
1,170
524
61,843
11,001
36,670
4,536
9,636
44,371
40,529
0
3,842
17,472
33,532
21 March 2014
8

ABB
Financials and valuation
Ratios
Y/E December
Basic (INR)
EPS
Growth
Cash EPS
Book Value
DPS
Payout (incl. Div.Tax)
Valuation (x)
P/E
Cash P/E
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
Price/Book Value
Dividend Yield (%)
Profitability Ratios (%)
RoE
RoCE
Turnover Ratios
Debtors (Days)
Inventory (Days)
Creditors. (Days)
Asset Turnover (x)
Leverage Ratio
Debt/Equity (x)
Cash Flow Statement
Y/E December
PBT before EO Items
Add : Depreciation
Interest
Less : Direct taxes paid
(Inc)/Dec in W C
CF from operations
(Inc)/Dec in FA
(Pur)/Sale of Investments
CF from investments
(Inc)/Dec in Net Worth
Less : Interest Paid
Dividend Paid
CF from Fin. Activity
Inc/Dec of Cash
Add: Beginning Balance
Closing Balance
2010
3.0
-82.2
5.4
114.4
2.3
78.4
2011
8.7
192.0
12.5
119.6
3.5
40.1
2012
6.5
-25.5
10.9
122.6
3.5
53.8
2013E
8.3
28.7
13.2
126.4
3.0
40.9
2014E
14.2
70.3
20.0
134.0
6.6
40.0
2015E
20.5
44.2
26.9
145.0
9.5
40.0
267.8
147.4
104.7
2.6
7.0
0.3
2.6
3.1
168
40
179
2.6
0.0
91.7
64.1
49.4
2.2
6.7
0.4
7.4
8.1
151
45
173
3.0
0.0
123.2
73.1
50.9
2.3
6.5
0.4
5.4
5.7
158
44
159
2.6
0.1
95.7
60.4
36.6
2.2
6.3
0.4
6.7
7.4
153
47
159
2.4
0.2
56.2
40.0
26.3
2.1
6.0
0.8
10.9
10.8
152
47
157
2.4
0.2
39.0
29.7
20.5
1.8
5.5
1.2
14.7
14.1
144
43
160
2.8
0.1
(INR Million)
2010
1,002
517
174
370
1,017
2,340
-858
1
-857
-183
174
498
-854
629
5,241
5,871
2011
2,678
795
307
832
286
3,234
-4,986
-338
-5,324
-175
307
495
-977
-3,068
5,871
2,559
2012
2,062
941
432
688
-4,948
-2,201
-1,756
-18
-1,773
76
432
739
2,182
-1,792
2,559
766
2013
2,725
1,033
1,011
956
-381
3,432
-1,975
0
-1,975
-264
1,011
734
915
2,397
767
3,163
2014E
4,365
1,224
1,000
1,353
-213
5,024
-1,888
0
-1,888
0
1,000
1,391
-2,701
435
3,166
3,601
2015E
6,295
1,352
600
1,951
2,231
8,527
-2,040
0
-2,040
0
600
2,006
-5,551
935
3,601
4,536
21 March 2014
9

Disclosures
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ABB
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In respect of any matter arising from or in connection with the research you could contact the following representatives of Motilal Oswal Capital Markets Singapore Pte Limited:
Anosh Koppikar
Kadambari Balachandran
Email:anosh.Koppikar@motilaloswal.com
Email : kadambari.balachandran@motilaloswal.com
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For Singapore
Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd
21 March 2014
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