31 March 2014
Atul Auto
spotlight
The Idea Junction
Stock Info
Bloomberg
CMP (INR)
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap. (INR b)/(USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1,6,12 Rel. Perf. (%)
ATA IN
360
11.2
4/0.1
370/145
21/74/124
India's fastest growing three-wheeler company
Drivers: Geographical expansion, widening product portfolio, exports
Financials & Valuation (INR m)
Gujarat-based Atul Auto (ATA) is India's fastest growing three-wheeler (3W) company.
Over FY08-13, its revenue, EBITDA and PAT grew at a CAGR of 35%, 43% and 82%,
respectively, with average RoCE at 26% and consistent dividend payout of over 25%.
The company is plugging gaps in its product portfolio, expanding further geographically
within India and plans to enter export markets to sustain strong growth.
Valuations at 13.4x/11.1x/8.8x FY14E/15E/16E earnings appear interesting, considering
23% EPS CAGR, robust return ratios, healthy dividend payout and debt free status. Key
risks include delay in expected launch of gasoline 3W. Not Rated.
Y/E March
Sales
EBITDA
NP
Adj. EPS (INR)
EPS Gr. (%)
BV/Sh. (INR)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
Payout (%)
Valuation
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
Div. Yield (%)
13.4
4.1
6.9
1.9
11.1
3.2
5.8
2.3
8.8
2.5
5.0
2.8
2014E 2015E 2016E
4,385 5,269 6,386
503.2 616.9 808.8
301.7 363.5 456.1
26.9
16.5
35.1
52.4
25.0
32.5
20.5
32.5
48.5
25.0
40.7
25.4
31.7
47.4
25.0
87.3 112.5 144.1
Introduction of rear-engine diesel 3W in 2009 - key inflection point
Having gained dominance in the front-engine three-wheeler (3W) markets of
Gujarat and Rajasthan, ATA expanded its geographical presence, with the
introduction of its rear-engine diesel 3W (Atul Gem series) in 2009. New products
coupled with geographical expansion helped ATA to register a volume CAGR of
29.3% over FY08-13. Its market share has improved significantly from 2.4% in FY08
to 7.7% in FY14 YTD.
Shareholding pattern (%)
As on
Dec-13 Sep-13 Dec-12
Promoter
55.1
56.6
56.6
Dom. Inst.
0.0
0.0
0.0
Foreign
6.1
4.6
4.6
Others
38.8
38.8
38.8
Gasoline/alternate fuel 3W launch to triple addressable market
Over the near term, ATA plans to enter the gasoline/alternate fuel segment,
which constitutes 1/3rd of the domestic 3W industry. Moreover, this will help to
enter a large export market (almost equal to the domestic market size). The 3W
markets in Africa, Latin America and neighboring countries are predominantly
gasoline-based.
Stock performance (1 year)
Plans to significantly increase capacity, largely through internal accruals
ATA plans to significantly increase capacity from current 48,000 units to 120,000
units per year in phases, largely through internal accruals . Recently, it doubled
capacity at its existing Rajkot plant to 48k units through brownfield expansion,
which can be scaled up further to 60k units at minimal capex. To add capacity of
another 60k units, ATA is evaluating options near Ahmedabad (Gujarat). Capex
for the new plant is likely to be INR1b-1.5b, largely funded by internal accruals.
Spotlight
is a new offering from the Research team at Motilal Oswal. While our Coverage Universe
is a wide representation of investment opportunities in India, there are many emerging names in the
Mid Cap Universe that are not under coverage. Spotlight is an attempt to feature such mid cap stocks
by visiting such companies. We are not including these stocks under our active coverage at this point
in time. Motilal Oswal Research may or may not follow up on stocks under Spotlight.
Chirag Jain
(Chirag.Jain@MotilalOswal.com) + 91 22 3982 5418
Jinesh Gandhi
(Jinesh@MotilalOswal.com) + 91 22 3982 5416
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
RED: Caution
AMBER: In transition
GREEN: Interesting
1

spotlight
| Atul Auto
Offers strong EPS growth, and high return and payout ratios
We expect revenue CAGR of 20.7% over FY14-16, driven by volume CAGR of 20%.
Higher volumes, coupled with entry into the relatively high margin export segment,
should help drive up margins further from 11.5% in FY14 to 12.7% in FY16. We expect
earnings CAGR of 23% over FY14-16, supported by strong operational performance.
Given the asset-light business model, negative working capital and high EBITDA
margins, the business offers high return ratios (average 26% over FY08-13). This
coupled with strong earnings growth and high dividend payout (over 25% over FY08-
13) makes ATA interesting. The stock trades at 13.4x/11.1x/8.8x FY14E/15E/16E
earnings.
Not Rated.
31 March 2014
2

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| Atul Auto
Background One of India's leading 3W companies
Consistently gaining market share in the last 4-5 years
Promoted by the Chandra and Patel families, Atul Auto (ATA) is a leading three-wheeler
(3W) company, with a production capacity of 48k units per year in Gujarat.
The company has been in operation since 1992, but the introduction of its rear-engine 3W
in 2009 was the real inflection point. Today, it has presence in 16 states, with 176 dealerships
and 102 sub-dealerships, totalling to 278 touch points.
ATA offers cargo and passenger variants (diesel engine powered) on 350kg and 500kg
platforms. It plans to introduce gasoline/alternate fuel 3Ws and small CVs (4W).
Promoted by the Chandra and Patel families, Atul Auto (Bloomberg: ATA) is a leading
3W company based in Gujarat. It has an annual production capacity of 48k units and
we expect sales volume of 38k units in FY14. ATA has a history of over two decades.
Originally incorporated as a private limited company in 1986 in Maharashtra, its
registered office was shifted to Jamnagar (Gujarat) in 1992 and then to Rajkot (Gujarat)
in 1994. While the company has been in operation since 1992, the introduction of its
rear-engine 3W in 2009 was the real inflection point.
Today, ATA manufactures 3Ws in the sub-1 ton category, targeting the passenger and
cargo segments. In the passenger segment, ATA's offerings include diesel and CNG
powered 3Ws for carrying 3-6 passengers. In the cargo segment, ATA manufactures
vehicles with a rated carrying capacity of 0.5tons.
Product launch history
Source: Company
In less than a year, ATA plans to introduce gasoline/alternate fuel-powered 3Ws.
Gasoline/alternate fuel constitutes 1/3rd of the domestic 3W market. Moreover, 3W
exports, which constitute nearly 46% of industry volumes, are largely gasoline based.
ATA's market share has risen from 2.4% in FY08 to 7.7% in FY14 (YTD), driven by
established distribution network, increase in capacity, and launch of new products.
Today, ATA has presence in 16 states, with 176 dealerships and 102 sub-dealerships,
totalling to 278 touch points.
31 March 2014
3

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| Atul Auto
Management: Board of Directors
Photo
Key personnel
JJ Chandra
Designation
Chairman and Managing Director
Comments
Mr Jayantibhai J Chandra, aged 59 years, is one of ATA's
Founder Promoters. He is currently the company's
Chairman and Managing Director (CMD). He has over 38
years of rich experience in the Automobile industry. Mr
Chandra began his career as an entrepreneur,
manufacturing three-wheelers under the brand name,
Khushbu.
Mr Niraj J Chandra, aged 35 years, has been one of ATA's
Whole-time Directors since March 2012. Before being
elevated to this position, he worked in various capacities
in the company's Marketing, Production and General
Administration departments. He is a Mechanical Engineer.
Mr Mahendra J Patel, aged 51 years, is a Whole-time
Director. He is one of ATA's promoters and has over 21
years of experience in Automobile Manufacturing and
Assembling. Currently, he is in charge of the company's
production department.
Mr Vijay K Kedia, aged 53 years, is a Director. A Commerce
Graduate, he has been working with the company since
2009. He has over 25 years of experience in Finance and
Securities Markets.
Niraj J Chandra
Whole Time Director
MJ Patel
Whole Time Director
Vijay K Kedia
Non-Independent and
Non-Executive Director
Shareholding pattern (%)
Source: Company, MOSL
31 March 2014
4

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| Atul Auto
Business Insights Strong volume growth driving robust performance
Over FY08-13, revenue,
EBITDA and PAT have
registered a CAGR of 35%,
43% and 82%,
respectively, with
average RoCE at 26% and
consistent dividend
payout of over 25%
Healthy margins, strong RoCE, consistent payout, net cash company
Over FY08-13, ATA's volumes have registered an impressive CAGR of 29.3% v/s domestic
industry CAGR of 12.2%.
Its market share has improved significantly from 2.4% in FY08 to 7.7% in FY14 YTD.
Strong volume growth has led to robust revenue CAGR of 35.2% over FY08-13.
EBITDA margins have improved from 8.6% in FY08 to 11.5% in FY13, driven by increase in
volumes and consequent operating leverage.
Robust 29.3% volume CAGR over FY08-13…
…driving impressive financial performance
Asset-light business model…
…together with negative working capital cycle…
Source: Company, MOSL
31 March 2014
5

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| Atul Auto
…driving robust return ratios
RoE marginally lower due to net cash
Strong cash flows + lower capex needs = net cash
Consistent and healthy dividend payout
Source: Company, MOSL
31 March 2014
6

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| Atul Auto
Launch of rear-engine 3W in 2009 - key inflection point
Reliance on Gujarat and Rajasthan declining, with geographic expansion
Until 2009, ATA had products catering to only a small part of the overall 3W market. Its
portfolio included only front-engine diesel powered 3Ws.
Also, virtually ~100% of its volumes came from Gujarat and Rajasthan, which were
predominantly front-engine markets.
To expand beyond Gujarat and Rajasthan, ATA introduced rear-engine diesel 3Ws (Atul Gem
series) in 2009 and rapidly expanded its dealer network in other states.
New product introduction coupled with geographical expansion helped ATA to register
29.3% volume CAGR over FY08-13.
…coupled with rapid expansion of dealer network beyond
traditional markets of Gujarat and Rajasthan…
Introduction of Atul Gem (rear-engine diesel 3W) in 2009…
…led to strong volume outperformance v/s industry…
….driving steady improvement in market share (dom. 3W, %)
Successful expansion to other regions driving down share of Gujarat and Rajasthan
Source: Company, MOSL
31 March 2014
7

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| Atul Auto
Gasoline 3W launch to triple addressable market
Export markets (~50% of industry volumes) predominantly gasoline
Bajaj Auto exports ~60%
of its 3W production,
primarily to Africa, Sri
Lanka and Egypt
So far, ATA has been focusing on semi-urban and rural markets, where diesel-powered 3Ws
are preferred.
It now plans to launch a gasoline/alternate fuel product. This will mark ATA's entry into the
large urban market. Our industry interaction suggests that gasoline-powered 3Ws constitute
1/3rd of total 3W domestic sales.
With the launch of a gasoline/alternate fuel 3W, a huge export opportunity will also open up
for ATA. The 3W markets in Africa, Latin America and neighboring countries, estimated at
~1m units per year, are predominantly gasoline-based.
Around 1/3rd of domestic 3Ws are gasoline/alternate
fuel driven (%)
ATA operates in only ~35% of the total 3W market
(including exports, %)
ATA has minimal share in exports due to lack of gasoline 3W
Africa, Sri Lanka and Egypt are the key export markets
for Bajaj Auto (%)
Source: Company, MOSL
31 March 2014
8

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| Atul Auto
3W cost economics superior in passenger segment
Shift towards 4Ws seen largely in cargo segment
Despite shift towards
4Ws, the domestic 3W
industry has registered a
10-year/5-year CAGR of
8.6%/10.1%, driven by
passenger 3Ws
Small 4Ws have emerged as a new category of vehicles over the last decade largely at the
cost of large cargo 3Ws (primarily above one ton).
In the cargo segment, small 4Ws offer better cost economics (higher overloading capabilities
with better power), coupled with higher aspirational value.
However, in the passenger segment, 3Ws continue to dominate. Passenger 3Ws are largely
bought by first-time buyers, who rarely have credible financial history. For them, arranging
the additional down payment (since 4Ws are expensive) becomes an issue.
Despite shift towards 4Ws, 3Ws registered a healthy
11.7% CAGR over FY03-13
Export growth has outperformed domestic growth, largely
driven by African markets
Shift towards 4Ws only in case of goods segment…
….that too largely in the above one ton category
Demand for large 3Ws (above one ton) shifted in favor of 4Ws… …due to better cost economics, aspirational value
Source: Company, MOSL
31 March 2014
9

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| Atul Auto
However in the passenger segment, 3Ws remain an attractive proposition
Particulars
Average On Road Price (INR m)
Initial Investment (INR m)
Mileage per litre of fuel (kms)
Fuel Cost per km
Spares parts pricing
Ease of Maintenance
Atul Gem
0.2
0.03
32-35
1.76
Economical than
4 Wheeler
Easier, Built on
simple technology
(Passenger/Cargo)
4 Wheeler(ULCV)
4 Wheeler (SCV)
0.3
0.5
0.04
0.07
23-25
18-20
2.47
3.09
Higher than
Higher than
3 Wheeler
3 Wheeler
More complicated, sophisticated
workshops required
Source: Company, MOSL
Small passenger 4Ws have not been able to make a big dent, given similar earning potential but higher cost than as 3Ws
Source: Company, MOSL
31 March 2014
10

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| Atul Auto
Plans to increase capacity significantly
Capex to be funded largely through internal accruals
Recently, ATA spent INR100m to double capacity at its existing Rajkot plant to 48k units
through brownfield expansion. The plant, which is currently operating at ~80% utilization,
can be scaled up further to 60k units at similar capex.
To support growth over the medium term, ATA plans to more than double its capacity in two
years to 120k units per year. It is evaluating options near Ahmedabad (Gujarat) to put up a
new plant.
Capex for the new plant is likely to be INR1b-1.5b, largely funded by internal accruals. The
capacity is expected to come in two phases of 30,000 units each.
Given its high cash surplus and internal accruals, ATA is likely to remain debt-free, despite
high capex.
Phase-1 of new plant to become operational by 1QFY17
Utilization to remain high, led by robust volume growth
Source: Company, MOSL
Despite high capex plans, ATA expected to remain debt free
Source: Company, MOSL
31 March 2014
11

spotlight
| Atul Auto
Financials and Expect strong 23% EPS CAGR over FY14-16
Valuations
High return ratios, healthy payout, reasonable valuations
We expect revenue CAGR of 20.7% over FY14-16, driven by volume CAGR of 20%. Volume
growth would be driven by introduction of gasoline 3W, continued expansion in domestic
market and entry into export markets.
With higher volumes and entry into relatively high margin export segment, EBITDA margin
should improve further from 11.5% in FY14 to 12.7% in FY16.
We expect earnings CAGR of 23% over FY14-16, supported by strong revenue growth,
though margin expansion would be partially offset by higher depreciation.
The stock appears interesting at 13.4x/11.1x/8.8x FY14E/15E/16E earnings, considering 23%
EPS CAGR, robust return ratios and healthy dividend payout.
Key risks: Delay in launch of gasoline 3W, higher than expected shift towards 4Ws.
…driving revenue CAGR of 20.7%
Expect healthy volume growth of 20% over FY14-16…
EBITDA margin to expand further on operating leverage…
…driving healthy EBITDA CAGR of 26.8%
PAT CAGR of 23% to be marginally lower than EBITDA CAGR...
...due to rise in depreciation
Source: Company, MOSL
31 March 2014
12

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| Atul Auto
Financials and Valuations
Income Statement
Y/E March
Volumes
Growth (%)
Avg. realization (INR/unit)
Growth (%)
Total Income
Growth (%)
EBITDA
EBITDA margin (%)
Interest
Depreciation
Profit before Tax
Current Tax
Deferred Tax
Tax rate (%)
Reported Net Profit
Extraordinary Items
Adjusted Net Profit
Growth (%)
FY12
26,698
39.4
114,207
8.4
3,049
51.2
283
9.3
8
43
232
84
-8
32.9
156
1
155
64.5
FY13
31,788
19.1
114,848
0.6
3,651
19.7
421
11.5
4
44
372
115
-2
30.4
259
0
259
66.9
FY14E
37,643
18.0
115,484
0.6
4,385
20.1
503
11.5
4
53
447
145
32.4
302
302
16.5
FY15E
45,172
20.0
116,639
1.0
5,269
20.2
617
11.7
0
74
543
179
33.0
364
364
20.5
(INR Million)
FY16E
54,206
20.0
117,805
1.0
6,386
21.2
809
12.7
0
128
681
225
33.0
456
456
25.4
Balance Sheet
Y/E March
Share Capital
Reserves Total
Net Worth
Loans
Other Liabilities
Total Liabilities
Net Block
Capital Work in Progress
Investments
Curr.Assets, Loans
Inventories
Sundry Debtors
Cash and Bank
Loans and Advances
Current Liab. & Prov.
Sundry Creditors
Provisions
Net Current Assets
Net Deferred Tax
Other Assets
Total Assets
E: MOSL Estimates
FY12
76
485
561
39
21
621
400
16
12
493
298
61
114
20
299
218
81
194
-47
46
621
FY13
112
631
743
0
28
771
431
50
12
698
230
72
381
16
414
286
128
284
-45
38
771
FY14E
112
865
977
0
33
1,010
478
50
12
961
272
85
584
20
492
339
153
469
-45
46
1,010
FY15E
112
1,148
1,260
0
40
1,299
904
50
12
914
304
103
483
24
590
407
184
323
-45
55
1,299
(INR Million)
FY16E
112
1,502
1,614
0
48
1,662
1,775
50
12
515
340
124
22
29
713
490
223
-198
-45
67
1,662
31 March 2014
13

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| Atul Auto
Financials and Valuations
Ratios
Y/E March
Basic (INR)
EPS
EPS Growth (%)
Cash EPS
Book Value per Share
DPS
Div. payout (%)
Valuation (x)
P/E
Cash P/E
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
Price to Book Value
Dividend Yield (%)
Profitability Ratios (%)
EBITDA Margins
Net Profit Margins
RoE
RoCE
Turnover Ratios
Debtors (Days)
Inventory (Days)
Creditors (Days)
Asset Turnover (x)
Leverage Ratio
Debt/Equity (x)
FY12
20.5
32.5
26.2
74.3
4.8
23.6
FY13
23.1
12.5
27.1
66.3
5.9
25.4
FY14E
26.9
16.5
31.7
87.3
6.7
25.0
FY15E
32.5
20.5
39.1
112.5
8.1
25.0
FY16E
40.7
25.4
52.2
144.1
10.2
25.0
15.6
13.3
8.7
1.0
5.4
1.6
13.4
11.4
6.9
0.8
4.1
1.9
11.1
9.2
5.8
0.7
3.2
2.3
8.8
6.9
5.0
0.6
2.5
2.8
9.3
5.1
32.2
45.1
11.5
7.1
39.7
56.0
11.5
6.9
35.1
52.4
11.7
6.9
32.5
48.5
12.7
7.1
31.7
47.4
7.4
45.0
32.9
5.5
7.2
29.6
36.9
5.2
7.2
29.6
36.9
4.9
7.2
27.6
36.9
4.6
7.2
25.6
36.9
4.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Cash Flow Statement
Y/E March
OP/(Loss) before Tax
Int./Div. Received
Depreciation
Direct Taxes Paid
(Inc)/Dec in WC
Others
CF from Oper.Activity
(Inc)/Dec in FA
(Pur)/Sale of Invest.
Others
CF from Inv. Activity
Inc/(Dec) in Debt
Interest Paid
Dividends Paid
Others
CF from Fin. Activity
Inc/(Dec) in Cash
Add: Op. Balance
Closing Balance
E: MOSL Estimates
31 March 2014
FY12
232
8
43
-84
-15
-12
196
4
-6
60
-61
-60
-8
-37
55
-49
85
28
114
FY13
372
4
44
-115
110
10
407
-95
0
0
-95
0
-4
-66
26
-44
267
114
381
FY14E
447
4
53
-145
26
0
384
-100
0
0
-100
0
-4
-67
-10
-81
203
381
584
FY15E
543
0
74
-179
54
0
492
-500
0
0
-500
0
0
-81
-12
-93
-101
584
483
(INR Million)
FY16E
681
0
128
-225
72
0
656
-1,000
0
0
-1,000
0
0
-102
-15
-117
-461
483
22
14

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| Atul Auto
N O T E S
31 March 2014
15

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Disclosure of Interest Statement
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2. Group/Directors ownership of the stock
3. Broking relationship with company covered
4. Investment Banking relationship with company covered
Atul Auto
No
Yes
No
No
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