Strategy | 7 April 2014
India Politics
Mandate 2014 | Vol 4
Research Team
(Rajat@MotilalOswal.com)

India Politics | Mandate 2014 - Vol 4
MANDATE 2014 – Volume 4
2014 General Elections is likely to be one of the most important event for India in this decade. The grandeur of the 16th Lok
Sabha Elections cannot be more justified especially at a time when the Indian economy is going through turbulent times. The
expectation of 1.2b+ population is to have a Central government which can bring back the era of high economic growth. The
recent state elections have shown the decisiveness of Indian electorate to vote for a change, to vote for development and
governance, and to vote against corruption. The theme for upcoming elections will be no different.
Given the scale of this event, we present to you “MANDATE 2014”, an Indian Politics series, covering our
analysis/perspectives, assimilation of key events/developments, apolitical opinions, quote shoot and lot more. In our fourth
volume, we present the projections of the last leg of opinion polls and the possible key alliances available with NDA.
Contents
Page No.
1. INDIA POLITICS: Opinion polls suggest NDA within striking distance from majority
........................
3
2. POLITICS IN PICTURES: Developments shaping current politics
.......................................................
12
3. Looking through the glass of opinion-makers
...................................................................................
13
4. Quote Shoot
.........................................................................................................................................
14
5. ANNEXURE: All important facts about elections
..............................................................................
15
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
Ashish Gupta
(Ashish.Gupta@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5544
Dipankar Mitra
(Dipankar.Mitra@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 39825405
7 April 2014
2

India Politics | Mandate 2014 - Vol 4
1. INDIA POLITICS: Opinion polls suggest NDA within
striking distance from majority
Please refer our Volume-3 edition
dated 19 March 2014
The conclusion of opinion polls confirms the consolidation of NDA moving closer to
majority. Rising seat share in successive months and more parties joining pre-poll
alliances with BJP further reinforces this trend. While the traditional voter base of
Hindi Heartland is set for a large swing in favour of NDA, they are seen opening
innings in some Southern states also. However, NDA would still require support of a
few allies post poll and if opinion polls and early sound-bytes are any indication,
many regional parties are set to enter into either post poll alliances or support from
outside, leaving comfortable margin for the new government to ensure stability. A
few additional factors to help BJP/NDA include - the recent decline of AAP, rising
voter participation and sizable new voters. Markets have already rallied and are
expected to consolidate further in the backdrop of these developments.
#1. Latest opinion polls indicate NDA close to majority
n
n
n
n
n
The Mar-14 updates on opinion polls (the last one before the Exit polls are
announced on 12
th
May) indicate that BJP led NDA has gained a position of
strength in the upcoming 2014 Lok Sabha polls.
At an estimated 252 seats for NDA, they would fall short of the 273 mark only by
21 seats. This would imply a swing of 111 seats from the 2009 tally of 133 seats.
BJP on its own would garner about 212 seats, their highest tally ever. Allies of
BJP would rise to 40 seats, a gain of 23 seats from the 2009 tally.
Various opinion polls also indicate that the vote share of NDA would exceed
30%; usually sufficient to cause a large swings in the number of seats and
highest ever by any party in more than two decades. The results of these
surveys are robust as all poll agencies accord high seats to BJP and NDA.
The opinion polls in the past may have failed to gauge the popular mood in case
of general elections while being fairly accurate in case of state elections.
However, this time the poll stars appear to have rolled up their sleeves in
conducting more frequent and phase-wise polls, improving methodology by
roping in external agencies and experiences, widening the depth of the
questionnaire and also helped in no small measure by further growth of media
itself. Also the opinion polls are a good indicator to gauge the voters’ swing even
as the precision of forecast remains statistical.
Latest opinion poll indicate NDA nearing the majority mark
Party
UPA
Congress
Congress
allies
NDA
BJP
BJP allies
Others
Total
Lok
Avg of
Sabha polls
Current
228
206
22
133
116
17
182
543
119
98
21
252
212
40
172
543
Swing
CNN IBN & CSDS
C-Voter
ABP News - Nielsen
NDTV Hansa
Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Feb-14 Mar-14
-109
-108
-1
119
96
23
-10
0
153
135
18
176
161
15
214
543
138
120
18
191
175
16
214
543
117
100
17
221
201
20
205
543
129
102
27
222
203
19
192
543
117
100
17
256
212
44
170
543
136
119
17
156
131
25
251
543
117
102
15
186
162
24
240
543
103
91
12
212
188
24
228
543
101
89
12
227
202
25
215
543
101
81
20
226
210
16
216
543
92
73
19
236
217
19
215
543
119
91
28
240
209
31
184
543
129
106
23
229
195
34
185
543
123
104
19
259
214
45
161
543
Source: Media, MOSL
Note:
Mar-14 projections for CNN-IBN and CSDS and ABP News – Nielsen includes TDP seats as predicted by these polls conducted before the
announcement of the alliance. NDTV Hansa Research already included TDP in the NDA alliance
7 April 2014
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India Politics | Mandate 2014 - Vol 4
Seats of BJP/NDA nearly to double from 2009 tally
BJP
133
251
40
BJP allies
256
44
240
31
259
45
145
212
17
116
2009
Average
CNN IBN & ABP News - NDTV Hansa
CSDS
Nielsen
UPA
NDA
Others
212
209
214
128
119
107113
Subsequent opinion polls show NDA gaining momentum
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
252
229
220
189
166
233227216
202
172
Source: Media, MOSL
Source: Media, MOSL
#2. BJP/NDA still gaining momentum
n
n
n
Various polls also indicate the rising popularity of BJP and its allies in the last
one year or so. The momentum has been held up in recent months too.
Polls also indicate that the popularity of BJP’s Prime Ministerial candidate
Narendra Modi has been maintained in recent months. He has also been able to
maintain the lead over others.
CNN IBN-CSDS poll in particular shows that the since Jul-13 NDA is likely to gain
around 64 seats (51 for BJP). It also shows gains for allies (8 seats) in 2014 alone.
C-Voter Opinion Poll
CNN IBN & CSDS Opinion Poll
270
250
230
210
190
170
150
130
NDA
BJP
256
176
161
212
Source: Media, MOSL
NDTV Hansa Opinion Poll
270
250
230
210
190
170
150
130
Feb-14
Mar-14
195
214
229
NDA
BJP
259
Modi’s popularity is maintained leaving competitors far behind
January
53
57
54
February
March
15
18 18
5
3
3
Narendra Modi
Rahul Gandhi
Arvind Kejriwal
Source: Media, MOSL
7 April 2014
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India Politics | Mandate 2014 - Vol 4
Latest opinion poll indicate NDA maintaining lead in key Hindi Heartland: Alliances aiding presence in other states
States
Uttar Pradesh
Maharashtra
Andhra Pradesh
West Bengal
Bihar
Tamil Nadu
Madhya Pradesh
Karnataka
Gujarat
Rajasthan
Odisha
Assam
Jharkhand
Punjab
Chhattisgarh
Haryana
Delhi
Other states
Total
Total seats
80
48
42
42
40
39
29
28
26
25
21
14
14
13
11
10
7
54
543
2009 Lok Sabha
15
20
0
1
32
0
16
19
15
4
0
5
10
5
10
0
0
8
160
CNN-IBN CSDS
Jan-14
Mar-14
Swing
45
46
1
24
27
3
12
16
4
1
1
0
20
25
5
0
8
8
25
26
1
8
10
2
23
23
0
22
23
1
2
5
3
Not
Not
separately separately
given
given
2
37
221
3
43
256
Feb-14
40
33
9
0
23
0
24
20
23
19
1
1
6
5
9
7
2
8
230
NDTV Hansa
Mar-14
Swing
53
13
36
3
16
7
0
0
21
-2
3
3
25
1
16
-4
22
-1
21
2
0
-1
3
2
10
4
6
1
8
-1
5
-2
4
2
10
2
259
29
Source: Media, MOSL
NA
1
6
35
#3. Saffron swing in Hindi heartland
n
n
n
n
BJP has seen strong traction in the 11 states forming the famed Hindi Heartland.
These states together account for 303 seats out of a total of 543 seats in the Lok
Sabha.
As per opinion polls, BJP and its allies would win 197 out of these 303 seats (65%
of seats).
In particular BJP is expected to win all-time high seats in the crucial states of UP
(46 seats out of total 80 seats) and Bihar (22 seats in partnership with LJP, out of
total 40 seats).
Just the Hindi Heartland with 303 seats may accord 197 seats to BJP led NDA
Total seats
NDA (Avg opinion polls)
46
80
48
31
29
25
40
22
26
22
25
21
13
9
10
7
11
6
14
5
7
3
Source: Media, MOSL
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India Politics | Mandate 2014 - Vol 4
#4. NDA set to open innings in many Southern states too
n
n
n
n
While Hindi Heartland has been the traditional voter base of NDA, 2014 is likely
to make new opening for NDA in Southern states where traditionally it has
muted presence.
As per opinion polls, NDA would make inroads in Andhra Pradesh and Tamil
Nadu too.
In Karnataka, where BJP already has a strong presence, it is expected to improve
its tally to win an overwhelming majority of the seats.
The recently announced alliance with TDP is likely to increase its tally in Andhra
Pradesh higher than what is suggested by the opinion polls conducted before
the announcement of alliance.
NDA making inroads in the southern states and seen consolidating in Karnataka where
they have a long presence
42
Total seats
2009 tally
39
BJP tally in 2014 as per opinion poll
28
19
13
6
0
Andhra Pradesh
0
Tamil Nadu
Karnataka
16
Source: Media, MOSL
#5. Couple of alliances could be the key
n
n
n
n
NDA is expected to fall short of the majority mark by approximately 21 seats.
Thus they would require the support of at least a couple of major regional
parties and many smaller parties to form a relatively stable government.
Including the probables of TMC, AIADMK, BJD, YSRC, BSP, DMK and TRS the total
tally may go up to 360.
While these post poll alliances are yet uncertain and some parties would like to
support from outside, the opinion polls indicate the potential to form a
government that is unlikely to remain vulnerable from just one or two major
regional parties.
7 April 2014
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India Politics | Mandate 2014 - Vol 4
A few alliances would take the NDA+ tally to 360 seats
27
21
16
16
13
13
12
11
7
5
5
Source: Media, MOSL
In the past regional parties have come forward in formation of government
Political party
SP *
BSP *
Left Front
JD(U)
AITC
DMK
BJD
SHS
NCP
AIADMK
TDP
RLD
RJD
SAD
JD(S)
JKN
TRS
PMK
* - Have provided outside support to UPA
Indicates pre-poll alliance with NDA
Indicates pre-poll alliance with UPA
Source: Election Commission, Media, MOSL
7
21
13
Opinion
polls
13
12
16
5
27
11
16
Lok Sabha seats
1999
2004
26
14
37
21
8
12
10
15
8
10
29
2
7
2
1
4
0
5
36
19
53
8
1
16
11
12
9
0
5
3
24
8
3
2
5
6
2009
23
21
20
20
19
18
14
11
9
9
6
5
4
4
3
3
2
0
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Past alliance with
NDA
Congress/UPA
#6. The AAP phenomenon has seen moderation post Jan-14 high
n
n
n
In many ways 2013 marked a novel political experiment in Indian political map,
that of rise of Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) that posed a political alternative to
mainstream parties.
However, since then and after relinquishing office of Delhi government in 49
days, the momentum of AAP has been on the decline as evidenced by recent
surveys.
According to CNN-IBN-CSDS, vote share of AAP in various states have declined
since the Jan-14 peak.
7
7 April 2014

India Politics | Mandate 2014 - Vol 4
n
n
Particularly striking has been its decline in Delhi, the only place where it held a
near majority vote share.
Besides its popularity has dipped across a cross section of people particularly
among the urban votes, upper class and the college educated. However, it has
retained its popularity amongst Muslims, media personnel, youth and upper
caste.
Support base among AAP has waned among various sections
3.9%
35.0%
5.0%
5.0%
2.0%
2.0%
1.0%
Particulars
Urban vote for AAP (Cities and
towns)
College educated vote for AAP
Muslim vote for AAP
High exposure to media vote for
AAP
Upper class vote for AAP
Youth vote for AAP (18-25 years)
Upper caste vote for AAP
Jan-14 (%)
12
10
8
7
10
7
5
Feb-14 (%)
9
8
8
8
6
6
5
Source: Media, MOSL
CNN-IBN-CSDS poll shows declining vote-share for AAP
Region/State
India
Delhi
UP
Maharashtra
Bihar
Tamil Nadu
Andhra Pradesh
Jan-14
4.9%
48.0%
5.0%
5.0%
3.0%
3.0%
2.0%
Feb-14
#7. Are there indications of lowest ever Congress score?
n
n
n
n
The Congress led UPA is expected to receive a huge setback in the 2014 general
elections.
Congress is set to lose 108 seats out of 206 seats to reach an all time low double
digit tally of 98. Proportionately, UPA seat tally too would go down to just 119
from 228 in 2009 elections.
The vote share of Congress would go down to mere 18% from a high of 29% in
2009.
Besides Congress in recent times has also faced desertion by many of its allies.
2014 could be the lowest ever Congress tally
Seats won
28
Vote share (%)
Seats won (%)
38
29
26
26
26
21
27
27
29
24
18
140
1996
141
1998
114
1999
145
2004
206
2009
98
2014
Source: Election Commission, MOSL
#8. Development, inflation and corruption – economic issues dominate poll
agenda
n
n
Various surveys have indicated that economic factors have dominated 2014
elections.
In particular three issues, viz., development, corruption and inflation dominated
the poll issues.
8
7 April 2014

India Politics | Mandate 2014 - Vol 4
n
n
n
In a survey conducted by CNN-IBN, among the 16 major states, development
ranked as the top issue for 8 states. This was followed by inflation, which ranked
topmost in the minds of people in 6 states.
While corruption ranked as top issue only in case of two states (Delhi and
Madhya Pradesh), it featured prominently in the list of issues for all states.
Unemployment too featured as one of the top five issues for all states barring
two states.
Developments, inflation and corruption dominate the poll issues
Source: Media, MOSL
#9. Would the rising voter participation and new voters alter the scenario?
n
n
n
n
Past history suggests that people come out to vote enthusiastically when there
is a burning issue. By last count the voter turnout ratio stood at 58% during 2009
general elections.
Since 2009 general elections, voter participation has jumped significantly during
the assembly elections and stand highest since 1980s.
During 2014, there would be the largest addition of 102m new voters, of which
23m electors are in the age group of 18 to 19 years.
To put the figure in perspective the total votes pooled by Congress and BJP in
2009 elections was 119m and 78m, respectively.
7 April 2014
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India Politics | Mandate 2014 - Vol 4
Sharp increase in voter turnout in recent state elections
Source: Election Commission, MOSL
Number of new voters in 2014 elections would be comparable to the total votes secured
by the majority party in 2009
Source: Election Commission, MOSL
#10. Elections have already led to big market moves
n
n
n
Markets have started to get excited in the last couple of months and are at a
high building on a positive election outcome of a stable government.
As seen below, markets have typically rallied prior to the elections in
anticipation of a stable government. Market reactions post elections are
influenced by whether the majority government has the required number of
seats to form the government and whether results have come in line with the
expectations. Having said that the trends in markets on the run-up to elections
have persisted in the three months following the election results.
As witnessed in the 2009 elections, a strong majority can bring about market
swings as wide as ~30% in three months.
7 April 2014
10

India Politics | Mandate 2014 - Vol 4
Source: MOSL
7 April 2014
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India Politics | Mandate 2014 - Vol 4
2. POLITICS IN PICTURES: Developments shaping current politics
Events
Observations
BJP and TDP forms pre-poll alliance
§
The Telegu Desam Party (TDP) announced its pre-poll alliance with BJP a
day before the first phase of elections starts. As part of this arrangement,
BJP would contest 5 Lok Sabha and 15 Assembly seats in Seemandhra, and
8 Lok Sabha and 47 Assembly seats in Telangana.
§
BJP is finding some new and old friends back
Congress releases Manifesto; BJP delayed
§
In a manifesto that contains all, Congress party promised a slew of pro-
poor measures including homes and affordable health care for all. The
other highlights were push to infrastructure, investment, job creation,
fiscal consolidation, GST, DTC, targeting of subsidies, abolition of export
taxes, no retrospective taxation, price stability and financial sector reform.
§
§
One Manifesto has it all; why BJP is coming second here?
BJP questions the timing of RBI granting bank licenses
Opposition parties, including BJP raised concerns about the timing of the
grant of new bank licenses by RBI even though the Election Commission
gave its go-ahead. RBI Governor however, clarified beforehand that the
issue of licenses is an economic and regulatory matter and is not related
to political process.
§
§
We hope that bank licenses remain an apolitical issue
The battle of Varanasi
Seeking a replication of the Delhi success where he defeated three times
sitting Chief Minister, Sheila Dixit, Kejriwal filed nomination against
Narendra Modi in Varanasi. The atheist turned believer, however, backed
it up by a dip in the Ganges of Varanasi. As has happened often in the
past, the event was widely covered by the media.
§
Can divine intervention alter election prospects
The sweet Bengal politics
§
The political atmosphere has inspired sweet treats in Bengal with the
state’s popular ‘sandesh’ (cottage cheese) now available in all party hues;
called the ‘Nirbachoni Mishti’ or poll sweets, they are a rage among party
workers.
§
For those who thinks politics is only dirty and bitter may taste this
Source: Various media report
7 April 2014
12

India Politics | Mandate 2014 - Vol 4
3. Looking through the glass of opinion makers
Opinions
George Varghese,
political chief,
Hindustan Times
§
§
§
§
Ashutosh Varshney, Writer,
director of the India
Initiative Brown University
and author of
‘Battles Half Won:
India’s Improbable
Democracy
§
§
§
Whether Hindutva will triumph over caste?:
BJP’s efforts to overcome caste barriers in its
project to create an overarching Hindu identity are showing signs of success, though it is still far
from being a pan-Indian phenomenon. The question, in this election is whether Hindutva will
triumph over caste. There are three factors clearly nudging politics towards Hindu consolidation.
Debate on Muslim reservation:
The trajectory in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar that together elect 120
members of Parliament has been different. The lower castes see the demand for Muslim quotas
as detrimental to their interests. The case for affirmative action for Muslims is strong, no doubt,
but the politics over it has played out much to the advantage of the Hindutva project. A social
coalition that has been a bulwark against Hindutva in U.P. and Bihar for the last two decades is
showing signs of unraveling. The Dalit participation in the Muzaffarnagar riots in U.P., and the
numerous Yadav versus Muslim skirmishes in Bihar over the last two years have strained the
solidarity among the poor and the disadvantaged.
Willingness to concede leadership:
The lower caste sympathy towards the Hindutva project has
been matched by a willingness among the upper castes to be content under the leadership of
the lower. In 2007, the upper castes voted for Dalit leader Ms. Mayawati in U.P. who won a clear
majority, the first for any since the Ayodhya movement. This change in the upper caste attitude
can dramatically turn round the fortunes of the BJP. The BJP has been responsive to the
leadership ambitions of the backwards and Dalits, but the upper caste support to leaders such as
Mr. Kalyan Singh and Ms. Uma Bharti has been tentative. In 1998, BJP had 58 MPs who were SCs
and STs, possibly the highest for any party ever as a proportion of its strength. With Mr. Modi at
the helm and the change in upper caste attitudes, the Sangh’s efforts have got a major fillip.
Media-propelled popularity:
A third factor that has developed over the last decade is the
dramatic popularity achieved by several lower caste gurus, aided by the visual media. To cite two
examples, both Swami Ramdev, who was born a Yadav in Haryana and Mata Amritanandamayi,
born in a fisherman’s community in Kerala, have attained such a huge following that their caste
origins have been eclipsed. TV evangelism, as opposed to scriptural Hinduism controlled by
priests, has enrolled a large section of poorer and lower caste people into thinking as Hindus.
Modi’s campaign rhetoric so far has defied ideological templates:
For several months, I have
been hearing Narendra Modi’s campaign speeches quite regularly, paying attention to his
themes, rhetoric and imagery. As expected, he has vigorously attacked key political opponents —
the Nehru-Gandhi family, Nitish Kumar, Mulayam Singh Yadav. But a systematic silence has also
marked his campaign. Quite remarkably, Hindu nationalism has been absent from his speeches.
Modi’s most striking rhetorical tropes are about India’s Muslims:
In Bihar as well as Uttar
Pradesh, Modi has made arguments truly unexpected from a Hindu nationalist viewpoint. He has
said that the Haj quota of Bihar and UP is rarely filled, whereas Gujarat’s quota is always
oversubscribed. What is the reason? Gujarati musalman samriddh hain, lekin Bihar aur UP ke
musalman garib hain (Gujarati Muslims are prosperous, but Bihar and UP Muslims are poor). If
the Muslims of Bihar and UP could be as rich as Gujarat’s, they would be able to make the Haj
pilgrimage, one of the five pillars of orthodox Islam.
Has Modi undergone an ideological transformation from his 2002 days?
We don’t have enough
evidence to make that claim yet. The choice of Varanasi as a seat continues to throw hints of
Hindu nationalism. But such symbolism has not been central to the campaign. We have a clearly
recognisable strategic pattern emerging right from the fateful Reuters interview in July 2013, a
pattern only briefly interrupted by Muzaffarnagar, whose association with Modi simply cannot
be established. Modi appears to have concluded that ideological purity cannot bring him to
power. Vajpayee-like ideological moderation and political pragmatism are necessary.
Modi’s desire for power – Is it bad?:
Modi is often criticised for nurturing an all-consuming
desire for power. From the perspective of political theory, that is not a damnable flaw unless it
leads to the weakening of democratic institutions. We won’t know much about the latter until
Modi comes to power. Indeed, given India’s realities, a single-minded pursuit of power is a virtue
in campaigning. It pushes politicians away from ideological purity, heading them towards
strategies aimed at the largest possible coalitions. Vajpayee understood this logic very well. Modi
may not have Vajpayee’s style but, substantively, his campaign over the last few months shows
roughly similar traits.
Source: Media, MOSL
§
7 April 2014
13

India Politics | Mandate 2014 - Vol 4
India Politics | Mandate 2014 - Vol 4
4. Quote Shoot
I will not contest for the Lok Sabha. I will
be a Rajya Sabha member and will work
for development of the party. I am the
only person who has contested 14
elections and has won all of them. Isn't
the House of Elders for us?
–
Sharad Pawar, NCP chief
There are three AKs in Pakistan
who're being admired. AK 47, AK
Antony and AK49. This third one, AK
49, has just launched a political party
–
Narendra Modi
We are a lucky party. Whenever we have
allied to form a non-Congress national
government we have been successful
–
Chandrababu Naidu, TDP chief on
aligning with BJP
I want to ask the Shehzada, if his brother-
in-law will also be a 'chowkidaar' of the
country as he said that the country needs
multiple 'chowkidaars
–
Narendra Modi on Robert Vadra
BJP does not care about the people and is just
interested in political rhetoric. Congress spent
six months with the people and came out with
a manifesto the people asked for. But with just
days to go for election, BJP has not yet come
out with a manifesto. It is because the BJP
doesn't care for the people
–
Rahul Gandhi
I am going to Amethi to fight the Congress
party and not its B Team…He has a history
of making despicable comments about
women. I did not expect an iota of respect
from him. If he wants to flaunt my caste
card, that’s not going to help the people.
2014 elections are not going to be about all
this. –
Smriti Irani on AAP Candidate Kumar
Vishwas
This could be the last election for me …. If
you take the oath, I will live not only 10 to
15 years more, but another 50 years, to
protect the Tamil race and Tamils
–
M Karunanidhi, DMK patriarch at the age
of 90 years.
7 April 2014
14
Source: Various media articles

India Politics | Mandate 2014 - Vol 4
5. Annexure: Vital facts about elections
A. General Election 2014
Key dates
Phase
Schedule
1 Issue of Notification
2 Last Date for filing Nominations
3 Scrutiny of Nominations
4 Last date for withdrawal
5 Date of Poll
6 Counting of Votes
1
1
14-Mar
(Fri)
21-Mar
(Fri)
22-Mar
(Sat)
24-Mar
(Mon)
7-Apr
(Mon)
16-May
(Fri)
2
2
15-Mar
(Sat)
22-Mar
(Sat)
24-Mar
(Mon)
26-Mar
(Wed)
9-Apr
(Wed)
16-May
(Fri)
3
3A
15-Mar
(Sat)
22-Mar
(Sat)
24-Mar
(Mon)
26-Mar
(Wed)
10-Apr
(Thu)
16-May
(Fri)
3B
13-Mar
(Thu)
20-Mar
(Thu)
21-Mar
(Fri)
24-Mar
(Mon)
10-Apr
(Thu)
16-May
(Fri)
4
4
19-Mar
(Wed)
26-Mar
(Wed)
27-Mar
(Thu)
29-Mar
(Sat)
12-Apr
(Sat)
16-May
(Fri)
5
5
19-Mar
(Wed)
26-Mar
(Wed)
27-Mar
(Thu)
29-Mar
(Sat)
17-Apr
(Thu)
16-May
(Fri)
6
7
8
9
6
7
8
9
29-Mar
2-Apr
12-Apr 17-Apr
(Sat)
(Wed)
(Sat)
(Thu)
5-Apr
9-Apr
19-Apr 24-Apr
(Sat)
(Wed)
(Sat)
(Thu)
7-Apr
10-Apr 21-Apr 25-Apr
(Mon)
(Thu)
( Mon)
(Fri)
9-Apr
12-Apr 23-Apr 28-Apr
(Wed)
(Sat)
(Wed)
(Mon)
24-Apr 30-Apr
7-May 12-May
(Thu)
(Wed)
(Wed)
(Mon)
16-May 16-May 16-May 16-May
(Fri)
(Fri)
(Fri)
(Fri)
Source: Election Commission, MOSL
Elections to be held in nine phases for various states/UTs
spread out across April to early May (2014)
14
13
12
9
7
5
2
3
3
420 out of 543 constituencies would vote during the four
days of April, viz., 10th, 17th, 24th and 30th (2014)
122
92
117
89
64
41
6
7
5
Source: Election Commission, MOSL
Source: Election Commission, MOSL
Polls would be over by three days for most of the states
21
States with extended polling have many constituencies
167
120
116
92
5
2
Six poll
dates
2
Five poll
dates
Three poll
dates
5
48
Two poll
dates
Single poll
date
Six poll
dates
Five poll
dates
Three poll
dates
Two poll Single poll
dates
date
Source: Election Commission, MOSL
Source: Election Commission, MOSL
7 April 2014
15

India Politics | Mandate 2014 - Vol 4
Number of electorates touches 81m in 2014; ~14% increase in number of voters in 2014
Electors (in m)
11
7
31
(0)
% change
19
2
2
8
7
717
14
814
593
499
321
1977
356
1980
380
498
606
620
671
Voting age reduced
from 21 to 18 years
1984
1989
1991
1996
1998
1999
2004
2009
2014
Source: Election Commission of India, MOSL
General elections are to be held in 9 phases spread out across states (2014)
No. Of Parl.
Constituencies
Andhra Pradesh
42
Arunachal Pradesh
2
Assam
14
Bihar
40
Chhattisgarh
11
Goa
2
Gujarat
26
Haryana
10
Himachal Pradesh
4
Jammu & Kashmir
6
Jharkhand
14
Karnataka
28
Kerala
20
Madhya Pradesh
29
Maharashtra
48
Manipur
2
Meghalaya
2
Mizoram
1
Nagaland
1
Odisha
21
Punjab
13
Rajasthan
25
Sikkim
1
Tamil Nadu
39
Tripura
2
Uttar Pradesh
80
Uttarkhand
5
West Bengal
42
Andaman & Nicobar
1
Chandigarh
1
Dadra & Nagar Haveli
1
Daman & Diu
1
Lakshadeep
1
Delhi
7
Puducherry
1
Total
543
States
7-Apr
Mon
9-Apr
Wed
2
5
6
1
3
7
3
2
6
7
7
7
7
6
10-Apr
Thu
12-Apr
Sat
17-Apr
Thu
24-Apr
Thu
30-Apr
Wed
17
7-May
Wed
25
12-May
Mon
26
10
1
5
20
9
10
1
2
1
1
10
1
5
28
10
19
1
1
4
1
4
2
10
19
11
13
20
1
39
5
1
10
1
11
4
1
1
1
1
1
7
12
6
14
9
15
5
6
18
17
6
7
92
5
122
1
117
89
64
41
Source: Election Commission of India, MOSL
7 April 2014
16

India Politics | Mandate 2014 - Vol 4
B. Seat/vote share distribution
Party-wise seats won by major parties in past 3 general elections
Party Name
Congress (INC)
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)
Samajwadi Party (SP)
Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP)
Janata Dal (United) (JD (U))
All India Trinamool Congress (AITC)
Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK)
Communist Party Of India (Marxist) (CPI (M))
Biju Janata Dal (BJD)
Shiva Sena (SHS)
Nationalist Congress Party (NCP)
All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK)
Telugu Desam Party (TDP)
Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD)
Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD)
Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD)
Communist Party Of India (CPI)
Jammu & Kashmir National Conference (JKN)
Janata Dal (Secular) (JD (S))
Other regional/independent parties
Total
1999
114
182
26
14
21
8
12
33
10
15
8
10
29
2
7
2
4
4
1
41
5
3
24
8
10
2
3
49
2004
146
138
36
19
8
1
16
43
11
12
9
2009
206
116
23
21
20
19
18
16
14
11
9
9
6
5
4
4
4
3
3
32
543
543
543
Source: Election Commission of India
Congress: Vote share has remained in the range of 26-29%, however seat share have
varied from 21% in 1999 to 38% in 2009
Seats won
Non-Congress led alliance
28.8
25.8
25.8
26.0
21.0
28.3
26.7
26.5
28.6
Vote share (%)
Seats won (%)
37.9
140
1996
141
1998
114
1999
145
2004
206
2009
Source: Election Commission of India
7 April 2014
17

India Politics | Mandate 2014 - Vol 4
BJP: 2009 vote share has been the lowest in the last 5 general elections
Seats won
29.7
33.5
Vote share (%)
33.5
25.4
25.6
20.3
21.4
23.8
22.2
18.8
Seats won (%)
161
1996
182
1998
182
1999
138
2004
116
2009
Source: Election Commission of India
Congress and BJP combined seats won ranges from 295-325
Seats won
55
49
59
51
Seat won (%)
55
52
Vote share (%)
52
49
59
47
301
1996
323
1998
296
1999
283
2004
322
2009
Source: Election Commission of India
UPA/NDA coalition bifurcation state-wise (pre-poll alliance of respective election year)
States
Uttar Pradesh
Maharashtra
Andhra Pradesh
West Bengal
Bihar
Tamil Nadu
Madhya Pradesh
Karnataka
Gujarat
Rajasthan
Orissa
Kerala
Assam
Jharkhand
Punjab
Chhattisgarh
Haryana
NCT of Delhi
Other States/UTs
Grand Total
1999
Congress
12
11
6
35
12
13
11
18
6
9
2
17
10
0
9
0
0
0
10
181
NDA
31
28
36
2
41
26
29
10
20
16
19
0
2
0
3
0
10
7
10
290
Others
42
9
0
5
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
2
0
1
0
0
0
9
72
Total
85
48
42
42
54
39
40
28
26
25
21
20
14
0
13
0
10
7
29
543
UPA
9
23
37
35
29
39
4
10
12
4
3
17
9
13
2
1
9
6
17
279
NDA
11
25
5
1
11
0
25
18
14
21
18
1
2
1
11
10
1
1
11
187
2004
Others
60
0
0
6
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
3
0
0
0
0
0
6
77
Total
80
48
42
42
40
39
29
28
26
25
21
20
14
14
13
11
10
7
34
543
2009
UPA NDA
Others
Total
21
15
44
80
25
20
3
48
34
0
8
42
25
1
16
42
2
32
6
40
27
0
12
39
12
16
1
29
6
19
3
28
11
15
0
26
20
4
1
25
6
0
15
21
14
0
6
20
7
5
2
14
2
10
2
14
8
5
0
13
1
10
0
11
9
0
1
10
7
0
0
7
22
8
4
34
259
160
124
543
Source: Election Commission of India
7 April 2014
18

India Politics | Mandate 2014 - Vol 4
C. Voter turnout
Voter turnout in general elections across different states (%)
States
Andaman & Nicobar Islands
Andhra Pradesh
Arunachal Pradesh
Assam
Bihar
Chandigarh
Chattisgarh
Dadra & Nagar Haveli
Daman & Diu
Goa
Gujarat
Haryana
Himachal Pradesh
Jammu & Kashmir
Jharkhand
Karnataka
Kerala
Lakshadweep
Madhya Pradesh
Maharashtra
Manipur
Meghalaya
Mizoram
Nagaland
NCT OF Delhi
Orissa
Puducherry
Punjab
Rajasthan
Sikkim
Tamil Nadu
Tripura
Uttar Pradesh
Uttarakhand
West Bengal
1999
59.5
69.1
72.2
71.3
61.5
48.4
74.7
71.7
45.1
47.0
63.7
56.8
32.3
67.6
70.2
80.2
54.9
61.0
65.7
56.2
65.3
76.3
43.5
55.6
63.3
56.1
53.9
81.7
58.0
68.1
53.5
75.1
2004
2009
63.7
64.2
70.0
72.6
56.4
68.2
69.1
69.5
58.0
44.5
51.1
65.5
52.1
55.3
69.0
73.2
70.2
71.3
58.8
55.3
45.2
47.9
65.7
67.5
59.7
58.4
35.2
39.7
55.7
51.0
65.1
58.8
71.5
73.4
81.5
85.9
48.1
51.2
54.4
50.7
67.4
77.1
52.7
64.4
63.6
51.8
91.8
90.0
47.1
51.9
66.1
65.3
76.1
79.8
61.6
69.8
50.0
48.4
78.0
83.8
60.8
73.0
67.1
84.5
48.2
47.8
48.1
53.3
78.0
81.4
Source: Election Commission of India
National average voter turnout: Higher turnout expected in 2014 elections (%)
64 Sympathy votes
60
57
62
58
57
62
60
58
58
1977
1980
1984
1989
1991
1996
1998
1999
2004
2009
Source: Election Commission of India
7 April 2014
19

India Politics | Mandate 2014 - Vol 4
Higher voter turnout in assembly elections than general elections; gap of 10pp highest in
2009-13
MP (5%): Voter turn-out at its peak in 2013
BJP win 72.7
69.8
Rajasthan (5%): Gradual rise in vote turnout over the years
BJP decisive win 75.2
67.2
57.1
60.6
63.4
66.5
67.3
60.5
54.2
49
49.8
60.2
52.2
54.9
1980
1985
1990
1993
1998
2003
2008
2013
1980
1985
1990
1993
1998
2003
2008
2013
Gujarat (5%): Decisive voting in favour of Narendra Modi
Decisive voting 72.5
64.4
59.3
52.2
48.1
48.8
61.5
59.8
Delhi (1%): AAP forms govt in 2013
Decisive voting against Congress 65.7
61.8
55.5
49
57.6
53.4
1980
1985
1990
1995
1998
2002
2007
2012
1983
1993
1998
2003
2008
2013
UP (15%): Decisive voting in favour of Samajwadi party
SP convincing win 59.5
57.1
51.4
48.5
44.9
45.6
46
55.7
53.8
Karnataka (5%): Voter turnout above 70% for the first time
Congress dethrones BJP 71.5
68.6
67.3
65.7
67.6
67.7
65
65.1
1980 1985 1989 1991 1993 1996 2002 2007 2012
1983
1985
1989
1994
1999
2004
2008
2013
7 April 2014
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India Politics | Mandate 2014 - Vol 4
D. National and State parties at present
There are six National Parties in India at present
S. No. Name
1 Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP)
2 Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)
3 Communist Party of India (CPI)
4 Communist Party of India (Marxist) CPI (M)
5 Indian National Congress (INC)
6 Nationalist Congress Party (NCP)
Year
1984
1980
1925
1964
1885
1999
Current leader
Mayawati
Rajnath Singh
Suravaram Sudhakar Reddy
Prakash Karat
Sonia Gandhi
Sharad Pawar
Symbol
Elephant
Lotus
Ears of Corn and Sickle
Hammer, Sickle and Star
Hand
Clock
There are 47 State Parties in India at present
S.No.Name of the party
1 Aam Aadmi Party
2 All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam
3 All India N.R. Congress
4 All India Forward Bloc
5 All India Trinamool Congress
6 All India United Democratic Front
7 All Jharkhand Students Union
8 Asom Gana Parishad
9 Biju Janata Dal
10 Bodoland People's Front
11 Desiya Murpokku Dravidar Kazhagam
12 Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam
13 Haryana Janhit Congress (BL)
14 Hill State People's Democratic Party
15 Indian National Lok Dal
16 Indian Union Muslim League
17 Jammu & Kashmir National Conference
18 Jammu & Kashmir National Panthers
19 Jammu and Kashmir People's Democratic
20 Janata Dal (United)
21 Jharkhand Mukti Morcha
22 Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (Prajatantrik)
23 Janata Dal (Secular)
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
47
Karnataka Janata Paksha merged with BJP
Kerala Congress (M)
Lok Jan Shakti Party
Maharashtra Navnirman Sena
Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party
Manipur State Congress Party
Mizo National Front
Mizoram People's Conference
Naga People's Front
Pattali Makkal Katchi
People's Democratic Alliance
People's Party of Arunachal
Rashtriya Janata Dal
Rashtriya Lok Dal
Revolutionary Socialist Party
Samajwadi Party
Shiromani Akali Dal
Shiv Sena
Sikkim Democratic Front
Telangana Rashtra Samithi
Telugu Desam Party
United Democratic Party
Zoram Nationalist Party
Year
2012
1972
2011
1939
1998
2004
1986
1985
1997
2005
1949
2007
1999
1948
1932
1982
1998
1999
1972
2006
1999
1979
2000
2006
1963
1959
1972
2002
1989
1987
1997
1996
1940
1992
1920
1966
1993
2001
1982
1997
Current leaders
Arvind Kejriwal
J. Jayalalithaa
N. Rangasamy
Biswas, Debabrata
Banerjee, Mamata
Ajmal, Badruddin
Mahto, Sudesh
Mahanta, Prafulla
Patnaik, Naveen
Mohilary, Hagrama
Vijayakanth
Karunanidhi, M
Bishnoi, Kuldeep
Lyngdoh, H.S.
Chautala, Om Prakash
Ahamed, E.
Abdullah, Omar
Singh, Bhim
Sayeed, Mufti Mhmd.
Yadav, Sharad
Soren, Shibu
Marandi, Babu Lal
Deve Gowda, H.D.
Thomas, C.F.
Paswan, Ram Vilas
Thackeray, Raj
Kakodkar, Shashikala
Zoramthanga, Pu
Lalhmingthanga, Pu
Rio, Neiphiu
Mani, G. K.
Riba, Tomo
Lalu Prasad Yadav
Choudhary Ajit Singh
Chandrachoodan, T. J.
Yadav, Mulayam Singh
Badal, Parkash Singh
Thackeray, Uddhav
Chamling, Pawan
Rao, K. Chandrashekar
Naidu, Chandrababu
Roy, Donkupar
Lalduhoma
States/UT
Delhi
Puducherry/ Tamil Nadu
Puducherry
West Bengal
Bengal/Arunachal/Manipur
Assam
Jharkhand
Assam
Odisha
Assam
Tamil Nadu
Puducherry/ Tamil Nadu
Haryana
Meghalaya
Haryana
Kerala
Jammu and Kashmir
Jammu and Kashmir
Jammu and Kashmir
Bihar
Jharkhand
Jharkhand
Karnataka/Kerala
Symbol
Broom
Two Leaves
Jug
Lion
Flowers & Grass
Lock & Key
Banana
Elephant
Conch
Nangol
Nagara
Rising Sun
Tractor
Lion
Spectacles
Ladder
Plough
Bicycle
Ink Pot & Pen
Arrow
Bow & Arrow
Comb
A Lady Farmer carrying
Paddy on her head
Karnataka
Kerala
Two Leaves
Bihar
Bungalow
Maharashtra
Railway Engine
Goa
Lion
Manipur
Cultivator Cutting Crop
Mizoram
Star
Mizoram
Electric Bulb
Manipur, Nagaland
Cock
Puducherry
Mango
Manipur
Crown
Arunachal Pradesh
Maize
Bihar, Jharkhand
Hurricane Lamp
Uttar Pradesh
Hand Pump
West Bengal
Spade & Stoker
Uttar Pradesh
Bicycle
Punjab
Scales
Maharashtra
Bow and Arrow
Sikkim
Umbrella
Andhra Pradesh
Car
Andhra Pradesh
Bicycle
Meghalaya
Drum
Mizoram
Sun (without rays)
Source: Election Commission, MOSL
21
7 April 2014

India Politics | Mandate 2014 - Vol 4
NOTES
7 April 2014
22

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7 April 2014
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India Politics | Mandate 2014 - Vol 4
7 April 2014
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