India Politics | 15 April 2014
India Politics
Please refer to our India Politics
thematic “Mandate 2014 - Vol 4”
containing opinion polls update
dated 7 Apr-14
NDTV-Hansa poll indicates majority for NDA
275 seats for NDA, with BJP alone garnering 226
NDTV-Hansa’s latest opinion poll accords majority to the BJP-led NDA. At 275 seats, the
NDA’s seat tally would surpass the requirement of majority by three.
The BJP is set to secure its highest ever tally of 226 seats. The most significant
implication of this is substantial erosion in the bargaining power of regional parties,
whose support now becomes optional for NDA.
As a corollary, the Congress (INC) is set to record its worst ever performance, with only
92 seats, while the UPA would have 111 seats.
The latest poll also indicates continued gains for the NDA in states like Maharashtra,
Odisha, Andhra Pradesh and Bihar. The markets have already rallied and are expected to
consolidate further in the backdrop of these developments.
Latest opinion poll indicates NDA gaining majority on its own
NDTV-Hansa’s latest opinion poll indicates that the BJP-led NDA would secure
absolute majority in the upcoming 2014 Lok Sabha polls. At an estimated 275
seats, the NDA would surpass the requirement for majority by three seats.
The BJP on its own would garner about 226 seats, its highest tally ever and 100
seats higher than the current Lok Sabha tally of 116 seats. BJP’s allies would win
49 seats, a gain of 32 seats from the 2009 tally.
In the recent months, the swing in favor of BJP/NDA has been large. Between
February 2014 and the first week of April 2014, NDA’s tally has increased by 45
seats (from 230 to 275), while BJP’s increased by 30 seats from 196 to 226.
The NDA’s vote share is projected at 34.5%, usually indicative of a large swing
closer to majority. Moreover, between February 2014 and the first week of April
itself, there is a vote share gain of 5% for the NDA.
The other poll agencies too have vetted the swing in favor of the BJP-led NDA,
though their last March 2014 tally falls short of the majority mark.
The INC is set to get only 92 seats, its lowest tally ever and 22 seats short of its
worst ever performance of 114 seats in 1999. The UPA is likely to win only 111
seats. This would also imply a loss of 114 seats for the INC and three seats for its
allies from the current Lok Sabha tally.
NDA gaining majority on its own would also lead to substantial erosion in the
bargaining chip of regional parties, whose support now becomes optional.
Opinion polls summary
Party
UPA
Congress
Allies
NDA
BJP
Allies
Others
Total
Lok
CNN IBN & CSDS
C-Voter
ABP News - Nielsen
NDTV Hansa
Sabha
Current Jul13 Oct13 Jan14 Feb14 Mar14 Jul13 Oct13 Jan14 Feb14 Jan14 Feb14 Mar14 Feb14 Mar14 Apr14
228
153
138
117
129
117
136
117
103
101
101
92
119
129
123
111
206
135
120
100
102
100
119
102
91
89
81
73
91
106
104
92
22
18
18
17
27
17
17
15
12
12
20
19
28
23
19
19
133
176
191
221
222
256
156
186
212
227
226
236
240
229
259
275
116
161
175
201
203
212
131
162
188
202
210
217
209
195
214
226
17
15
16
20
19
44
25
24
24
25
16
19
31
34
45
49
182
214
214
205
192
170
251
240
228
215
216
215
184
185
161
157
543
543
543
543
543
543
543
543
543
543
543
543
543
543
543
543
Source: Media, Election Commission of India
Ashish Gupta
(Ashish.Gupta@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5544
Dipankar Mitra
(Dipankar.Mitra@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 39825405
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.