22 April 2014
4QFY14 Results Update | Sector:
Real Estate
Mahindra Lifespaces
BSE SENSEX
22,758
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap. (INR b) / (USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
S&P CNX
6,815
MLIFE IN
40.8
15.6/0.3
472/327
1/-19/-18
CMP: INR381
TP: INR430
Buy
Financials & Valuation (INR Million)
Y/E March
Net Sales
EBITDA
Adj PAT
EPS (INR)
Gr. (%)
BV/Sh.(INR)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
P/E (x)
P/BV (X)
2014 2015E 2016E
7,053
1,702
1,006
24.6
-28.9
308.9
7.9
8.2
15.5
1.2
7,754
2,056
1,031
25.3
2.5
329.9
7.9
8.6
15.1
1.2
9,411
2,586
1,229
30.1
19.1
356.8
8.8
10.2
12.7
1.1
P&L weak as margin pressure persists:
MLIFE’s consolidated revenue stood at
INR1.9b, -48% YoY (v/s est. of INR1.5b). EBITDA de-grew 81% YoY to INR259m (v/s
est. of INR421m) as margins plunged sharply due to (1) weakness in ongoing
residential projects (standalone margins at 5.7%), (2) cost escalations in Chennai
projects and (3) lower revenue from processing area. Higher other income and lower
interest cost kept PAT ahead of estimate at INR303m.
Approval cycle still elusive, pre-sales remain weak:
Approval cycle remains elusive
with no new launches in 4QFY14. Hence, pre-sales continue to remain weak at INR1b
in 4QFY14 (v/s est. of INR1.1b). FY14 annual sales stood at 0.9msf (INR3.7b), down
16% YoY. Antheia (Pune) accounted for 32% of pre-sales, while
Chennai/Nagpur/Hyderabad projects contributed 26%/20%/14%. In MWC Jaipur, it
sold 2.36 acres of DTA area to existing customer, while monetization of balance 40
acres of industrial area in MWC Chennai continue to hinge on government approval.
Other 4QFY14 updates:
Acquired 6% stake of Mahindra group in MWCDL (Chennai
township) at ~INR163m. Also paid ~INR471m for acquiring another 0.48msf of area
across Bangalore and Gurgaon Sector 59 projects.
Focus on launch and monetization but…:
Management highlighted a strong focus on
monetization of recently-acquired projects, which have considerably increased
gearing and deteriorated working capital and undergoing elongated approvals cycle
and regulatory uncertainties. In MWC Chennai, it hopes to monetize the balance 40
acres (~INR1.4b) in FY15-16.
…recovery cycle could be a year away:
With most of its planned launches likely to
take place from 2HFY15, we expect benefits of operating cash flow, improvement in
capital efficiencies and gearing only in FY16. The stock trades at 1.1x FY16E BV, 12.7x
FY16E EPS. We maintain a
Buy
with a target price of INR430, albeit with a view of
delayed recovery cycle. Any clarity on monetization of Byculla land (which has
reached an advanced stage) offers near term trigger.
Sandipan Pal
(Sandipan.Pal@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5436
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.