28 April 2014
Update | Sector: Capital Goods
BHEL
BSE Sensex
22,688
S&P CNX
6,783
CMP: INR191
TP: INR240
Buy
Cyclical factors support recovery
Strong operating leverage and FCF improvement to drive re-rating
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
BHEL IN
2,447.6
208/100
-5/29/-18
466.9
7.7
Financial Snapshot – Consol. (INR b)
Y/E March
2014 2015E 2016E
Net Sales
396.2 325.4 358.4
EBITDA
PAT
EPS (INR)
EPS Gr. (%)
BV/Sh. (INR)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
Payout (%)
Valuations
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
Div Yield (%)
13.2
1.4
8.5
2.2
19.7
1.4
9.7
1.6
12.7
1.3
5.6
2.4
47.4
35.2
14.4
33.9
23.7
9.7
47.5
36.6
15.0
BTB has inched up to 2.5x in FY14: a key trend driving cyclical factors
During FY14, BHEL’s BTB inched up to 2.5x (from lows of 2.2x in September
2013). Also, Power segment BTB had improved to 2.5x in FY14 (from lows of
2.3x in Sept 13); we expect bounce back to 3.0x in FY15.
Industrial order intake was up 23% YoY in FY14. R&M and International
segment also witness 19% / 28% YoY increase in order intake.
Focus on cash realization led to a cash surplus situation after a gap of 4
years in FY14; also the rising trend in debtors had been arrested.
We believe that improvement in BTB is an all important trend for capital
goods companies, and has ramifications on several cyclical components
including working capital, operating free cash flows and operating leverage.
(46.2) (32.7) 54.5
133.4 139.7 149.4
11.2
11.5
30.0
7.1
7.4
30.0
10.4
10.6
30.0
Strong operating leverage, cyclical factors support recovery
BHEL is strongly exposed to cyclical factors: i) Contribution margins at ~42%
vs expected EBIDTA margin of 12.4% (adjusted) in FY14, leading to a
meaningful operating leverage ii) Core NWC stable at ~200 days; cyclical
factors of Retention money (at ~200 days in FY14E vs 55-60 days in FY07-09)
and customer advances (deteriorated from 63% of revenues in FY09 to 34%
in FY13) that impacted reported NWC are expected to normalize.
Thus, we expect Operating Cash Flows to improve from average of ~INR20b
in FY10-13 to ~INR92b in FY15/16E. This will lead to an increase in net cash
from INR63b in FY13 to INR209b in FY16E (~46% of current market cap).
Shareholding pattern (% )
As on
Dec-13 Sep-13 Dec-12
Promoter
Dom. Inst
Foreign
Others
67.7
12.0
15.9
4.5
67.7
12.0
15.5
4.8
67.7
12.5
15.1
4.7
Binary trends support execution, focus shifts on public sector
We analyzed each of the private sector projects in BHEL's order book to gauge
the possible trends in execution. We calculate that unexecuted private sector
order book stands at ~INR255b (~30% of power sector order backlog). Of this,
~INR179b are non-moving / slow-moving, and of the balance INR75b private
sector backlog, we calculate that this corresponds to just ~20% of the initial
order value. Thus, the focus increasingly shifts towards public sector projects
(both Central and State sector) and is positive as private sector faces several
headwinds in project execution, including funding and viability issues.
Stock Performance (1-year)
Maintain Buy
We expect BHEL to report EPS of INR14.4 in FY14 / INR9.7 in FY15E / INR15 in
FY16E. At the CMP of INR191, the stock quotes at PER of 13.2x FY14E / 19.7x
FY15 / 12.7x FY16E. Maintain
Buy
with price target of INR240 (PER of 16x
FY16E). The key variable to watch out for is the impact of the Pay Commission
(effective January 2017), and could be an important swing factor.
Satyam Agarwal
(AgarwalS@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5410
Nirav Vasa
(Nirav.Vasa@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5422
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.