Wednesday, June 11, 2014
Market Overview (Economy)
Commodity
Gold / USD Spot
Silver / USD Spot
Crude oil $ Spot
COMEX Copper $
LME Copper (3M)
LME Aluminum (3M)
LME Nickel (3M)
LME Lead (3M)
LME Zinc (3M)
Last
1260.49
19.12
105.02
343.5
6705
1900.75
18644
2147.25
2141.25
Chg
8.91
0.1
-0.07
-1.9
8
4.75
-56
5.25
8.25
% Chg
0.71%
0.53%
-0.07%
-0.55%
0.12%
0.25%
-0.30%
0.25%
0.39%
Asian markets are mixed in early trade
and consolidating recent gains even as
the euro is under increasing pressure on
expectations of more easing measures.
Overall, positive US data is supporting
the dollar strength across the board
which might weigh on commodities.
Looking ahead, the main focus of the
markets will be the FOMC meet next
week which will give hints about the Fed’s
interest rate policy going ahead.
Equity
BSE Sensex Index
S&P CNX NIFTY
Hang Seng Index
Shanghai Index
Nikkei 225 Index
DAX Index
CAC 40 Index
Dow Jones
NASDAQ 100 Index
Last
25583.7
7656.4
23315.7
2052.5
14994.8
10028.8
4595.0
16945.9
3800.9
Chg
3.5
1.8
198.3
22.0
-129.2
20.2
5.9
2.8
5.1
% Chg
0.01%
0.02%
0.86%
1.08%
-0.85%
0.20%
0.13%
0.02%
0.13%
Precious Metals
Precious metals are trading flat but signs
of a more accommodative stance from the
ECB may underpin prices in the short
term.
There have been no economic triggers
this week and the focus will be the Fed
meet in the next week which will provide
direction to precious metals.
In supply side data, Russian gold
production rose by 29.7% in the first four
months of 2014 compared with the same
period a year earlier.
MCX Gold (Aug contract) achieved our
expected level of Rs.26170 and closed
near the same. Price at present is in a
pullback mode and as long as sustains
above Rs.26000, bias remains sideways
to positive.
Silver is also in a pullback mode and is
trading close to the crucial resistance near
Rs.40650 level. Rise above the same
could target Rs.41050 level on the upside.
There have been no economic triggers this
week and the focus will be the Fed meet in
the next week which will provide direction
to precious metals.
1
Please refer to disclaimer at the end of the report.

Base Metals
Metals are mostly higher on the LME with the
exception of nickel.
In data, U.S. wholesale inventories rose more
than expected in April which could be supportive
of better economic growth in Q2.
Aluminium could gain more as most new pickup
trucks produced in North America will use
aluminum instead of steel for lighter bodies which
will help increase demand for aluminium.
Copper is still trading below its crucial support at
Rs.404-405 area and as long as held below the
same selling on rise is advisable. Strong intraday
resistances are placed at Rs.401.90/404 level.
Key resistance for Nickel is at Rs.1160 level while
immediate resistance is at 1130-1141 range.
Strong supports are at Rs.1100/1080 levels.
Aluminium could gain more as most new
pickup trucks produced in North America
will use aluminum instead of steel for
lighter bodies which will help increase
demand for aluminium.
LME Inventory
Commodity
Copper
Zinc
Lead
Nickel
Aluminium
Change
-425
-2475
0
1914
-6450
Source: Reuters
Energy
Crude oil prices are trading relatively unchanged
ahead of the OPEC meet but a rise in API
inventories will weigh on prices..
U.S. crude stockpiles unexpectedly increased by
1.5 million barrels according to the API and
markets will now focus on the EIA data today.
Meanwhile violence and occupation by rebels in
one state of Iraq led the government to declare
a state of emergency in Mosul. Although oil
flows have been unaffected this could
potentially provide an upside trigger.
MCX Crude oil price corrected slightly and is
trading close to Rs.6170 level at present. Strong
intraday supports are placed at Rs.6155/6115
level whereas strong resistances are at
Rs.6240/6255 area.
Natural gas has breached strong support near
Rs.272 indicating weakness. Strong resistances
are placed at Rs.272/276 level whereas
Rs.265.50-266.50 could act as a strong support
zone.
2
The call on OPEC is likely to be higher
this year as production from Libya, Iran
and Iraq has failed to meet expectations
and if production is not increased than
oil prices may rally even higher.
Please refer to disclaimer at the end of the report.

Level Playing Sheet
Commodity
Gold
Gold
Silver
Silver
Crude Oil
Crude Oil
Copper
Zinc
Lead
Nickel
Aluminum
Exchange
MCX
COMEX
MCX
COMEX
MCX
NYMEX
MCX
MCX
MCX
MCX
MCX
Expiry
August
August
July
July
June
July
June
June
June
June
June
Close
26207
1260
40506
19.17
6170
104.35
400.85
126.15
126.15
1108.6
111.00
S2
25959
1245
39931
18.85
6123
103.38
395.65
124.25
124.32
1085.7
109.70
S1
26083
1252
40218
19.01
6146
103.87
398.25
125.20
125.23
1097.1
110.35
Pivot
26155
1258
40401
19.13
6187
104.46
399.70
125.95
125.97
1109.6
111.55
R1
26279
1265
40688
19.29
6210
104.95
402.30
126.90
126.88
1121.0
112.20
R2
26351
1270
40871
19.40
6251
105.54
403.75
127.65
127.62
1133.5
113.40
Trend
Flat
Flat
Flat
Strong
Bullish
Bullish
Bearish
Bearish
Bullish
Bullish
Bearish
Conviction
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
High
Low
Low
Moderate
Moderate
Moderate
Range
26119 - 26315
1255 - 1268
40310 - 40780
19.07 - 19.34
6135 - 6199
103.6 - 104.7
399 - 403
125.6 - 127.3
125.6 - 127.3
1091 - 1115
110 - 111.9
For any details contact:
Commodities Advisory Desk - +91 22 3958 3600
commoditiesresearch@motilaloswal.com
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3
Please refer to disclaimer at the end of the report.