18 June 2014
Tribhovandas Bhimji Zaveri
spotlight
The Idea Junction
Stock Info
Bloomberg
CMP (INR)
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap. (INR b)/(USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1,6,12 Rel. Perf. (%)
TBZL IN
202.0
66.7
14.3/0.2
224/116
34/36/-32
Emerging branded retail jewelry play
Drivers: Demand revival, regulatory easing, geographic expansion
Financials & Valuation (INR b)
Y/E March
Sales
YoY (%)
EBITDA
Margins (%)
PAT
EPS
Gr. (%)
BV/Sh. (INR)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
EV/Sales (x)
Dividend (%)
2015E 2016E 2017E
20.7
13.8
1.5
7.3
0.8
11.8
42.4
7.9
16.1
17.8
17.1
25.6
12.0
0.9
1.2
28.4
37.4
2.2
7.6
1.1
17.1
45.7
9.2
20.0
21.1
11.8
21.8
8.6
0.7
1.5
37.9
33.3
2.9
7.6
1.6
23.3
36.2
11.2
22.8
21.7
8.6
18.0
7.2
0.5
1.5
Demand at the cusp of turnaround:
After a dismal FY14, owing to weak
discretionary consumption and regulatory challenges, demand is at the cusp
of a turnaround and should pick up in 2Q/3QFY15. Post elections, management
believes that the 'feel good' factor has set in and the full impact will be visible
in six months.
Store count and area to nearly double in FY14-17:
TBZL added only two stores
in FY14 due to weak demand and ban on 'gold on lease' scheme, which
necessitate higher working capital requirement. For FY15, TBZL has guided
addition of three stores and could accelerate expansion if demand revives. It
is also evaluating the franchisee route for expansion and has appointed a
consultant to carry out the initial due diligence. According to the management,
initial plans of having 57 stores and 150ksf of space by FY15 may now be
realized in FY17. We model 50 stores and 157ksf of space by FY17.
Focus on studded jewelry to drive margin expansion:
TBZL's sales mix has
deteriorated in the last two years and now comprises of 77% gold jewelry and
21% diamond (25% in FY12).This, coupled with promotions and discounts, resulted
in margin contraction of 170bp over FY12-14. TBZL plans to aggressively market
diamond jewelry, as gross margins in diamond jewelry (35%) are 3x those in gold
jewelry (11-12%). We expect margin expansion of 70bp over FY14-17.
Removal of ban on 'gold on lease' to improve operations:
RBI lifted the ban on
'gold on lease' in May 2014. This should help players like TBZL to undertake
expansion plans without straining their balance sheets. Currently, TBZL
procures 25% of its gold requirement from SBI deposit scheme, 30% from
exchange of old jewelry, 5% from its own gold deposit scheme and 40% from
bullion dealers. To comply with the new Companies Act, it has suspended its
12-month+ customer advance scheme and now operates a 10+1 month scheme.
Strong brand legacy; 41% FY14-17 EPS CAGR; 8.6x FY17 P/E:
TBZL long-
established presence in West and South India, strong brand legacy, and in-
house design and manufacturing capabilities are its key strengths. We expect
the company to post 41% PAT CAGR over FY14-17. RoE, which has declined
from 43% to 13% in two years, is likely to expand to 23% by FY17. We believe
valuations are attractive, given TBZL trades at 11.8x/8.6x FY16E/FY17E.
Shareholding pattern (%)
As on
Mar-14 Dec-13 Mar-13
Promoter
74.2
74.1
74.1
FII
15.2
15.0
14.6
Others
10.6
10.9
11.3
Stock performance (1 year)
Spotlight
is a new offering from the Research team at Motilal Oswal. While our Coverage Universe
is a wide representation of investment opportunities in India, there are many emerging names in the
Mid Cap Universe that are not under coverage. Spotlight is an attempt to feature such mid cap stocks
by visiting such companies. We are not including these stocks under our active coverage at this point
in time. Motilal Oswal Research may or may not follow up on stocks under Spotlight.
Gautam Duggad
(Gautam.Duggad@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5404
Manish Poddar
(Manish.Poddar@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3027 8029
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
RED: Caution
AMBER: In transition
GREEN: Interesting
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