28 July 2014
1QFY15 Results Update | Sector:
Technology
Persistent Systems
BSE SENSEX
25,991
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap. (INR b) / (USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
S&P CNX
7,749
PSYS IN
40.0
51.4/0.9
1,400/504
16/6/119
CMP: INR1,313
TP: INR1,350
Buy
Financials & Valuation (INR Billion)
Y/E Mar
Sales
EBITDA
Adj. PAT
Adj. EPS
(INR)
EPS Gr. (%)
BV/Sh.(INR)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
P/E (x)
EV/EBITDA
( )
2015E 2016E 2017E
18.8
4.4
3.0
74.7
19.8
370.7
22.4
18.1
17.6
9.7
21.8
5.4
3.7
93.2
24.8
438.3
23.7
18.5
14.1
7.6
25.8
6.5
4.7
117.5
26.1
531.0
25.0
19.3
11.2
5.8
Revenues in line PAT above estimate:
PSYS’ 1QFY15 revenue was USD72.7m, flat
QoQ. EBITDA margin was 21.8%, -520bp QoQ, below our est. of 23% (-400bp
QoQ), on higher SGA (18.3% v/s estimate of 17.4%). Significantly higher other
income and forex drove PAT of INR688m, well above our estimate of INR596m.
IP-led revenues grow contrary to expectations:
The revenue mix was different as
IP-led revenues grew 2% QoQ to USD14.5m, v/s our est. of USD12.5m (-12%
QoQ).While linear revenues declined marginally to USD58.1m, v/s our est. of
USD59.8m.
Reiterates sanguine outlook for FY15:
PSYS has changed its go-to-market strategy
into three areas: [1] account [2] platform and [3] product / IP. PSYS is seeing a
healthy deal pipeline in all the three areas and is confident of achieving better
growth in FY15 compared to FY14’s 15.2% YoY. EBITDA margins faces headwinds
of ~250bp from salary hikes in the coming quarter. PSYS expects absence of visa
cost (150bp impact) and improvement in utilization to facilitate improving margin
trajectory through the remainder of the year. In FY14 EBITDA margins in 1Q were
21.7% while full year margins were 25.8%.
Adjusting our margin estimates for higher G&A:
We expect slightly better growth
in IP-led business, while moderating our expectations in the linear revenues. We
have revised our FY15 EBITDA margin downwards to 22.9%, 180bp lower,
following 1Q miss. Consequently, our EPS estimate for FY15 is lower by 2.4%.
Right place, right time; maintain Buy:
We believe PSYS is one of the few Tier-II IT
companies with the potential to grow revenues at or above 20%, given its focus on
the fast-growing SMAC business, multi-year relationships with marquee clientele
in the ISV space. Valuations offer limited upside in near term, but we remain
confident on company’s long term business fundamentals. Maintain
Buy
with a
target price of INR1,350.
Ashish Chopra
(Ashish.Chopra@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5424
Siddharth Vora
(Siddharth.Vora@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5585
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.