31 July 2014
1QFY15 Results Update | Sector:
Consumer
Bajaj Electricals
BSE SENSEX
25,895
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap. (INR b)/(USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
S&P CNX
7,721
BJE IN
100.3
28.7/0.5
385/150
-18/10/40
CMP: INR287
TP: INR350
Buy
Financials & Valuation (INR Million)
Y/E Mar
2015E 2016E 2017E
Net Sales
EBITDA
Adj PAT
EPS (INR)
Gr. (%)
BV/Sh(INR)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
46,649 54,243 62,853
2,939
1,234
12.3
-2,424
78.6
16.5
26.0
23.2
3.6
4,068
1,910
19.1
54.8
90.7
22.6
34.1
15.0
3.2
4,903
2,397
24.0
25.5
107.7
24.2
37.2
12.0
2.7
Growth in line; margins below expectation:
Bajaj Electricals (BJE) reported
revenue of INR8.9b (est. of INR8.9b), compared to INR7.8b in 1QFY14, marking a
YoY growth of 12.5%. Consumer Durables reported strong 16% growth, while
Lighting and E&P division’s growth was weak this quarter at 7.2% and 7.4%
respectively. EBITDA margin for 1QFY15 stood at 4.2% (est. 7.5%), against 2.6% in
1QFY14. While E&P reported better margins at -2.8%, against -13.7% in 1QFY14
(-4.7% 4QFY14), margins were below expectations due to unfavorable operating
leverage. Margins for Lighting (1.5% v/s 4.9%) were weak due to a sharp decline in
CFL business, which de-grew by 13% this quarter. Consumer Durables margins
recovered on a QoQ basis (6.9% v/s 3.6%), though on a YoY basis were weak (6.9%
v/s 9.2%) due to competitive pressure faced in Fans and Morphy Richards.
E&P turnaround on track:
BJE’s management maintained its guidance of 25%
growth in E&P business for FY15, with each of the next three quarters witnessing
progressive growth. Management expects 2Q revenue at INR3b, 3Q revenue at
INR4b and 4Q revenue at INR6b respectively. Similarly, it is confident of posting
6% EBIT margin (est 4%) in E&P division for FY15 and RoCE of 20%.
Consumer Durables outlook strong, Lighting segment to remain subdued:
We
believe BJE’s Consumer Durables division will continue to report robust growth in
FY15 and expect 15% revenue growth from the same. Lighting segment is
expected to remain under pressure due to accelerated shift from CFL (erstwhile
high growth, high margin for BJE) to LED (where it has negligible market share).
We expect Lighting to post 10% revenue growth in FY15E with stable margins YoY.
Valuation and view:
With the expected turnaround of E&P business, we believe
BJE’s valuation gap with peers will narrow down. We cut the EPS estimates for
FY15E and FY16E by 33% and 15% respectively to factor lower margins. We value
BJE at 18x FY16E EPS of INR19 and arrive at a target price of INR350. Maintain
Buy.
Atul Mehra
(Atul.Mehra@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5417
Niket Shah
(Niket.Shah@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5426
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.