31 July 2014
1QFY15 Results Update | Sector:
Technology
HCL Technologies
BSE SENSEX
25,895
Bloomberg
S&P CNX
7,721
HCLT IN
CMP: INR1,555
TP: INR1,750
Buy
Equity Shares (m)
700.1
M.Cap. (INR b) / (USD 1,129.0/18.8
b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1,624/838
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
2/-20/32
Financials & Valuation (INR Billion)
Y/E June
Sales
EBITDA
PAT
EPS (INR)
EPS Gr. (%)
BV/Sh.(INR)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
P/E (x)
EV/EBITDA
2015E 2016E 2017E
363.2
91.4
71.5
100.5
11.5
370.1
35.6
30.2
15.5
10.4
412.7
101.4
81.7
114.1
13.5
458.2
31.4
27.6
13.6
8.9
461.7
109.1
88.8
123.8
8.5
556.1
27.5
24.6
12.6
7.7
Revenue below estimate on lower IMS growth:
HCL Tech’s 4QFY14 USD revenues
grew 3.4% QoQ to USD1,407m (marginally below estimate of 4.3% QoQ growth to
USD1,419m). In constant currency, revenue grew 2.8% QoQ, v/s estimate of 3.8%
QoQ. EBITDA margin was 26.3%, -40bp QoQ (in line with estimate of 26%, -70bp
QoQ) – as lower gross margin (38.1% v/s estimate of 38.6%) was offset by SGA (at
11.8% v/s estimate of 12.6%). PAT at INR18.34b grew 13.1% QoQ, above estimate
of INR16.4b, +1% QoQ), due to lower tax rate of 16.5%, v/s estimate of 22%, and
also higher other income (INR1.6b including forex loss, v/s estimate of INR0.85b).
Healthy growth in deal signings YoY:
HCLT has signed 50+ transformational
engagements totaling over USD 5b in TCV in FY14. This compares with USD3b+ in
FY13, lending healthy visibility on revenue growth acceleration.
Peers catch up on IMS growth, expect Software Services growth to improve:
Acceleration at peers and deceleration at HCLT in IMS have meant that the growth
rates are now similar (QE June 2014 YoY – TCS: +24%, INFO: +21%, HCLT: +26%).
However, HCLT guided for software services growth to get stronger in FY15
facilitated by ramp ups in the deals won during the year.
Growth visibility intact, Maintain BUY:
We retain our estimates post the results,
and expect HCLT to accelerate growth on the back of continued traction in deal
wins. While the profitability for the company may cool off going forward, our
FY16E EBIT margin estimate of 22.4% is 170bp lower than FY14, building cushion
for multiple headwinds. We expect HCLT to grow its USD revenues at a CAGR of
15% over FY14-16E and EPS at a CAGR of 13% during this period. Our target price
of INR1,750 discounts FY16E by 15x. Buy.
Ashish Chopra
(Ashish.Chopra@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5424
Siddharth Vora
(Siddharth.Vora@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5585
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.