September 2014
Dashboard
The Monthly Auto Update
Data Track:
August 2014 volume update of auto majors
Sector overview and outlook ....................................................... 2
Hero MotoCorp ............................................................................. 3
Bajaj Auto ...................................................................................... 4
HMSI .............................................................................................. 6
TVS Motor ..................................................................................... 7
Maruti Suzuki ................................................................................. 9
Mahindra & Mahindra ................................................................. 11
Tata Motors ................................................................................. 13
Ashok Leyland .............................................................................. 15
Eicher Motors .............................................................................. 16
Speedometer
August 2014 relative performance
Sector Gauge:
July 2014 update
Two-wheelers .............................................................................. 17
Three-wheelers ........................................................................... 19
Cars and UVs ................................................................................ 21
Commercial vehicles..................................................................... 23
12-month relative performance
News and developments
Tata Motors launches its new compact sedan Zest......................... 26
TVS Motor launches Scooty Zest……………………………………………….....26
Aggregate Volumes For August 2014*
Segment
Aug-14
Aug-13
YoY (%)
Jul-14
2-Wheelers
1,448,783
1,195,980
21.1
1,400,556
Motorcycl e
1,096,587
956,521
14.6
1,059,530
Scooters
285,106
188,781
51.0
284,284
3-Wheel ers
67,791
45,817
48.0
56,603
Ca rs
113,964
93,276
22.2
102,890
UVs
37,257
38,903
-4.2
37,724
Commercial Vehicles
41,538
47,849
-13.2
41,998
LCV
21,940
30,406
-27.8
21,614
M&HCV
19,598
17,443
12.4
20,384
Tra ctors (M&M)
15,006
14,158
6.0
17,407
Total Volumes
1,724,339
1,435,983
20.1
1,657,178
* Aggrega te of BJAUT, HMCL, TVSL, HMSI, MSIL, MM, TTMT, AL & EIM
MoM (%)
3.4
3.5
0.3
19.8
10.8
-1.2
-1.1
1.5
-3.9
-13.8
4.1
FY15YTD
6,983,135
5,402,178
1,269,354
283,710
521,050
194,363
187,272
105,107
82,165
106,968
8,276,498
FY14YTD
Chg (%)
6,001,335
16.4
4,844,527
11.5
872,639
45.5
240,597
17.9
466,736
11.6
203,267
-4.4
238,081
-21.3
155,460
-32.4
82,621
-0.6
107,204
-0.2
7,257,220
14.0
Source: Compa ny, MOSL
Comparative Valuation
CMP * Rating
TP
P/E (x)
Auto OEM's
(INR)
(INR)
FY15E
FY16E
Ba ja j Auto
2,258
Buy 2,333
18.2
15.5
Hero MotoCorp
2,802
Buy 2,796
18.6
14.9
TVS Motor
201
Buy
206
22.9
14.7
M&M
1,396
Buy 1,377
18.3
14.2
Ma ruti Suzuki
2,913
Buy 2,907
21.4
16.8
Ta ta Motors
516
Buy
612
8.0
6.2
As hok Leyl a nd
38
Buy
45
82.5
14.1
Ei cher Motors #
10,224
Buy 11,401
41.7
26.7
* Pri ce a s on 2nd September 2014. # Nos . a re on CY ba s i s
EV/EBITDA (x)
FY15E
FY16E
12.1
9.8
12.4
10.3
13.6
9.1
15.7
12.9
10.7
8.6
3.7
2.8
11.7
6.2
25.3
16.3
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
FY15E
FY16E
FY15E
FY16E
34.3
34.1
47.8
47.4
45.4
46.4
62.8
65.3
26.5
32.6
29.8
38.0
39.8
45.4
19.7
20.4
22.1
18.6
0.0
0.0
27.2
23.8
22.6
25.0
28.5
27.2
5.8
13.6
-10.7
2.6
37.8
43.5
Source: Compa ny, MOSL
Jinesh Gandhi
(Jinesh@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5416
Chirag Jain
(Chirag.Jain@MotilalOswal.com); + 91 22 3982 5418
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.