3 September 2014
Update | Sector: Capital Goods
Crompton Greaves
BSE Sensex
27,019
S&P CNX
8,083
CMP: INR203
TP: INR271
Buy
Riding a New Mustang
Consumer business demerger to unlock value; several triggers exist
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
CRG IN
626.7
219/80
0/23/90
126.9
2.1
Consumer demerger to unlock value, provide strategic possibilities
CRG has proposed the demerger of the consumer business into a separate listed
company. The Committee of Directors was to examine all relevant aspects and
make suitable recommendations to the Board; and we expect the process to be
completed shortly. We believe that the transaction will unlock significant value,
and also opens up strategic possibilities to accelerate growth.
Over the last 3 years, CRG has consistently reported above industry average
growth rates in each of the key product segments. For instance, in Fans, CRG’s
market share increased substantially from lows of 21% in FY11 to 26.6% in FY14
given the improved reach, launch of premium products, etc.
We calculate CRG’s consumer business to have reported EPS of INR3.9 in FY14
and estimate at INR4.5 in FY15; at benchmark PER of 25-30x FY15E (HAVL
quotes at 31x FY15E), the possible value of the consumer business could be
~INR110-135/sh. The management recently stated that the medium term EBIT
margin target for the consumer business is 15% (vs 11.9% in FY14).
Financial Snapshot (INR b)
Y/E Mar
2015E 2016E 2017E
Net Sales
144.2 163.7 188.8
EBITDA
Adj PAT
EPS (INR)
Gr. (%)
BV/Sh (INR)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
8.9
3.9
6.4
53
53
11.4
11.0
31.9
3.9
12.6
7.4
11.8
86
62
20.4
17.4
17.2
3.3
16.3
10.5
16.8
42
76
24.1
21.6
12.1
2.7
Leveraging Indian Manufacturing: expect traction in FY15/16
CRG has been positioning to leverage the Indian manufacturing through
increased exports, particularly in Power products (transformers from
Kanjurmarg, GIS / RMUs / Circuit Breakers from Nashik, Automation products
from Bangalore) and HT Motors / Drives (factories commissioned in July 2013).
During FY14, while the exports (including deemed exports) increased 12% YoY,
FOB exports were up sharply at 19% YoY. Several of the new product launches
in industrial and switchgears require pre-qualifications, leading to a time-lag
and thus, we expect a meaningful ramp up in exports in FY15/FY16.
Shareholding pattern % (Mar-14)
Jun-14 Mar-14 Jun-13
Promoter 42.7
DII
FII
Others
22.2
20.1
15.0
42.7
23.2
19.5
14.6
41.7
23.7
15.5
19.1
Stock Performance (1-year)
Crompton Greaves
Sensex - Rebased
250
200
150
100
50
Switchgears / Traction Electronics are key growth drivers
For CRG, switchgear revenues have increased by 15% YoY in FY14, largely led by
strong traction in RMUs. In FY14, GIS capacity at Hungary / Nashik has been
nearly doubled. Another important achievement has been the successful PQ
from PGCIL for 765kva Circuit Breakers, and should increase the
competitiveness in terms of bidding for system projects in India. Commissioning
of the circuit breaker plant in Indonesia (51% JV with PLNE) and the existing
capacity in Brazil should drive increased exports from Nashik. We expect the
contribution of switchgears / traction electronics to increase from ~10% of
consolidated power segment revenues to ~16-18% in the next 2-3 years.
Satyam Agarwal
(AgarwalS@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5410
Amit Shah
(Amit.Shah@MotilalOswal.com)
/ Nirav Vasa
(Nirav.Vasa@MotilalOswal.com)
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.