SECTOR: FINANCIAL
DCB Bank
STOCK INFO.
BLOOMBERG
BSE Sensex : 26443
S&P CNX : 7905
DEVB.IN
REUTERS CODE
27 August 2014
Initiating Coverage
(INR CR)
BUY
INR83
DCBA.NS
Y/E MARCH
FY13
FY14
FY15E
We recommend to BUY DCB Bank for a target of INR110 (P/B
of 2.3x on FY15E adjusted book value per share).
INVESTMENT ARGUMENT:
NII (INR Cr.)
OP (INR Cr.)
NP (INR Cr.)
EPS (INR)
EPS Growth (%)
BV/Share (INR)
P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
ABV/Share (INR)
P/ABV (x)
RoE (%)
RoA (%)
284
126
102
4.1
78
38
20
2.2
36
2.3
11.7
1.0
368
188
151
6.0
48
44
14
1.9
41
2.0
14.8
1.3
477
275
181
7.2
20
51
11
1.6
48
1.7
15.2
1.3
On the comeback trail:
DCB's management team was replaced by
a new team led by Mr. Murali Natrajan in April 2009. DCB's new
management restructured its balance sheet, improved underwriting
standards with more focus on secured loans and other stringent criteria
for loan approvals. After undergoing structural transformation, the bank
has all the enablers in place to tread the growth path.
Marked improvement in asset quality:
NPA have showed steady
improvement over FY10-14, with GNPA falling from 8.8% in FY09 to
1.7% in FY14. Provision Coverage Ratio (PCR) also improved
significantly from 48% in FY08 to 81% in FY14. Further, stringent
risk management, low unsecured portfolio, modest risky sector exposure
and smaller ticket size, provides comfort on asset quality.
Advances to double in three years:
DCB's overall credit has
registered 24% CAGR in last three years primarily driven by mortgage
& mid-corporate segments, which posted 43% & 23% CAGR,
respectively over the same period. The mortgage segment (40% of
advances) is highly under penetrated and offers robust growth
opportunities. DCB strategically targets self-employed customers, given
its huge potential (51% of total workforce) and relatively high yields.
We expect DCB to double its advances book in the next 3 years
translating to a CAGR of 25%.
Improved NIMs to sustain:
DCB's NIMs have improved from
2.80% in FY10 to 3.56% in FY14 led by (1) Increasing share of retail
term deposits in place of high cost wholesale deposits; and (2) Shift in
loan book from unsecured personal loans and unsecured corporate
loans towards low risk high yield segments like mortgages and secured
mid-corporates. The management is confident of maintaining NIM's
above 3.3% in coming years.
Valuations and View:
KEY FINANCIALS
Shares Outstanding (Cr)
Market Cap. (INR Cr)
Market Cap. (US$ M)
3 yrs NII Growth to FY15E (%)
Past 3 yrs NP Growth (%)
25.03
2,078
346
28%
49%
STOCK DATA
52-W High/Low Range (INR)
Major Shareholders (as of Jun'14)
Promoter
Non Promoter Corp Holding
Public & Others
Average Daily Turnover(6 months)
Volume
Value (INR mn)
1/6/12 Month Rel. Performance (%)
1/6/12 Month Abs. Performance (%)
262,207
18.7
27/63/104
14/6/17
18.5
29.1
52.5
88/38
Maximum Buy Price: INR87
DCB's current valuations of 1.7x FY15E P/ABV and 11x FY15E P/E
do not reflect the bank's ability to scale up its redefined business model.
We attach a fair P/ABV multiple of 2.3x FY15E, a 25% premium to
comparable peers (small to medium sized banks) owing to higher
advances growth, superior NIM, improving asset quality, robust earnings
growth and improvement in return ratios. We recommend to BUY for
a target price of INR110 - potential upside of 32%.
Jehan Bhadha
(jehan.bhadha@motilaloswal.com); Tel:+912233124915