13 October2014
Metals
Sector Update
Metals
Steel mill spreads under attack from scrap prices
Scrap demand is getting crowded out by expanded BOF spreads
We had highlighted the risk to steel pricing in our report
Risk to steel prices dated Sept
17 2014.
Thereon, we noted further correction in HRC prices without a
corresponding correction in input prices such as iron ore and coking coal. Scrap
prices, which held up well while iron ore and coking coal prices were in a free fall,
are seen suddenly nose diving. Thus, the steel mill BOF spreads (which were
expanding over the last 12 months) have come under pressure.
Slowing steel demand growth in China is forcing Chinese mills to boost exports.
Expanding BOF spreads are crowding out demand for steel scrap. Turkey, which is
the largest importer of scrap, saw its electric route steel production declining 4%
YoY to 2mt, while BOF steel production surged 47% YoY to 872kt in August. Europe
(ex Turkey and Russia) is now exporting more steel scrap, while finished steel
imports surged 30% during April-August 2014. Electric route steel production in
RoW (Rest of World) has started to decline. Thus, scrap prices have started falling to
catch up with the fall in BOF RM basket (described later in the report). We believe
that the correction in scrap prices still has some distance to cover, thereby leading
to further correction in steel mills’ spreads.
WSA has cut the forecast for world demand growth by 110bp to 2% and 130bp to
2% for 2014 and 2015 respectively as emerging economies have lost growth
momentum, especially China. Chinese steel demand growth forecast is lowered by
200bp to 1% for 2014 and by 190bp to 0.8% for 2015. North America and Europe
have done better in the first half but second half growth is weaker-than-expected.
We expect the divergence in Chinese HRC export prices and European HRC prices to
not sustain with a fall in scrap prices and continued export pressure from China. We
believe that our estimate (
report “Downhill Run” dated August 2012
) of HRC prices at
USD423/t for 2014 will be achieved as the prices of coking coal, iron ore and rebar
are already in line with our estimate.
Compression in BOF Steel Mills’ spread will have a corresponding impact on the
margins of Tata Steel Europe and Indian integrated steel mills. Tata Steel is the most
sensitive to lower realization among our covered steel names. We estimate for
every INR1,000/t decline in spread, it would impact Tata Steel’s valuation by 28%.
This is followed by JSW Steel, with 21% impact to our valuation on every INR1,000/t
decline in spreads. Further, we also expect the risk of multiple de-rating, with a
decline in profitability for these companies. We believe JSPL’s valuation would be
the most sensitive to a 1x decline in EV/EBITDA multiple, impacting its valuation by
27%. Safeguard duty on imports could provide near-term relief, however it would be
difficult to insulate domestic steel prices from volatility in global scrap prices.
Sanjay Jain
(SanjayJain@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5412
13 October 2014
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
Dhruv Muchhal
(Dhruv.Muchhal @MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3027 8033
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