21 October 2014
2QFY15 Results Update | Sector:
Others
UPL
BSE SENSEX
26,576
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
S&P CNX
7,928
UPLL IN
428.6
388/149
-4/35/86
CMP: INR327
TP: INR414
Buy
Margin declines, but gross debt continues to reduce
2QFY15 performance is below estimate with revenues of ~INR26.6b (v/s est
INR27.1b), EBITDA margins of 18% (v/s est of 18.7%), and adj. PAT growth of just
3% YoY to ~INR1.8b (v/s est INR2.2b).
Consolidated revenues grew by 14% YoY. India revenues grew of ~7.5% YoY and
international revenue growth of ~16%. International revenues were driven by 27%
growth in EU, ~30% growth in RoW and 20% growth in LatAm. US revenue
declined 12% YoY. While volumes grew ~15%, pricing grew 2% and forex impacted
growth by 2%.
Gross margins of 38.6% were highest in 14 quarters. However, higher other
expenses on promotion of branded products restricted EBITDA margins at 18% (-
30bp YoY). EBITDA grew 13% to ~INR4.8b (v/s est ~INR5.1b).
Working capital increased QoQ by 8 days to ~102 days (-7 day YoY), for inventory
build-up for LatAm. Gross debt reduced further by ~INR1b QoQ, but net debt
increased ~INR3.3b QoQ, due to working capital increase and dividend payout.
FY15 guidance maintained:
FY15 revenue growth of 12-15% (constant currency),
EBITDA margin of 19-20% and tax-rate of 22-25%. Capex maintained at ~INR5.5b.
Key highlights of the analyst meet:
a) US market has de-grew 3-5% due to soft
commodity prices leading to reduced input intensification, b) launched 2 new
products in US - Satellite (Pendimethalin) & Lifeline (Glufosinate), c) DVA Agro
(Brazilian subsidiary) margins are now comparable with average, but expected to
improve further driven by product mix and operating leverage, d) Low commodity
prices and devaluation of Brazilian Real is a concern for Brazil, and e) higher
market access expected through increased registrations in African countries.
We are downgrading our FY15/FY16 EPS by 4%/1% to INR28.2/34.5, to factor in
for higher other expenses and interest cost. The stock trades at very attractive
valuation of 11.6x/9.5x FY15/FY16 EPS and 2.2x/1.8x FY15/FY16 P/B. Maintain
Buy
with target price of INR414 (~12x FY16E EPS).
M.Cap. (INR b) / (USD b) 140.0/2.3
Financials & Valuation (INR Million)
Y/E Mar
Net Sales
EBITDA
Adj PAT
EPS (INR)
Gr. (%)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
P/E (x)
P/BV (X)
2015E 2016E 2017E
123,053 138,890 157,237
23,482 27,031 31,397
12,252 14,795 18,017
28.2
16.6
21.0
21.5
11.6
2.2
34.5
22.3
177.3
21.3
23.1
9.5
1.8
42.0
21.8
215.3
21.4
24.2
7.8
1.5
BV/Sh.(INR) 146.9
Jinesh Gandhi
(Jinesh@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5416
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.