22 October 2014
2QFY15 Results Update | Sector:
Financials
Kotak Mahindra Bank
BSE SENSEX
26,787
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
M.Cap. (INR b) / (USD b)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
S&P CNX
7,996
KMB IN
771.3
820.9/13.4
1,086/631
3/13/22
CMP: INR1,064
TP: INR990
Neutral
Financials & Valuation (INR Billion)
Y/E MAR
NII
OP
NP
NIM (%)
EPS (INR)
EPS Gr. (%)
BV. (INR)
RoE (%)
RoA (%)
Payout (%)
Valuations
P/E(X) (Cons.)
26.6
2015E
42.3
28.9
18.0
4.7
39.9
20.7
275.0
15.6
1.9
2.9
2016E
50.6
35.1
21.9
4.6
48.9
22.6
322.5
16.4
1.9
2.9
21.7
3.3
3.4
0.1
2017E
61.8
43.8
27.3
4.6
59.8
22.4
380.5
17.0
1.9
2.9
17.7
2.8
2.8
0.1
P/BV (X)
(C
P/ABV)(X)
( Yield
Div. )
(%)
3.9
3.9
0.1
KMB’s 2QFY15 consolidated PAT grew 23% YoY to INR7.2b (in-line) led by
lending business PAT growth of 22% YoY to INR5.9b.
Standalone business:
Standalone PAT grew 26% YoY to INR4.4b (in-line). Fees
registered impressive growth of 51% YoY in 2Q and 44% YoY in 1HFY15.
Employee expenses grew 34% YoY due to ESoPs related accounting. Loans grew
20% YoY, though ex-CV it was healthy at 28% YoY, driven by strong growth of
43% YoY in corporate segment. CASA deposit grew 11% QoQ (37% YoY) and
CASA ratio was stable QoQ at 31%.
Other businesses:
(1) K-Sec market share declined 20bp QoQ to 2.7%, (2) car
disbursements grew 28% YoY to INR18.3b, (3) strong growth in LAS (NBFC)
business – customer assets up 3x YoY and 50%+ YTD, (4) asset management
AUM grew 9% YoY but declined 2% QoQ to INR657b and (5) average AUM for
Kotak AMC grew 5% QoQ and 7% YoY to INR378b, of which equity average AUM
was at INR52b (INR39b a quarter ago and INR29b a year ago).
Other highlights:
(1) consolidated NIM (5%) and GNPAs (including stress assets -
1.6%) were stable QoQ and (2) KMB acquired 15% stake in MCX.
Valuation and view:
Increasing evidence of improvement in macro-economic
conditions coupled with strong capital position (Tier I of ~17%), improved liability
profile and distribution, robust risk management system (stress loans at just 1.2%)
and strong presence across loan product segments place KMB in a strong position to
lever any growth opportunities. We raise the earnings estimates by ~4% to factor
the strong growth. Earnings CAGR of ~22% is expected over FY14-17E, while RoA and
RoE are expected to be ~1.9%/16%+. However, rich valuations of 3.3x FY16E
consolidated BV and 23x (at LPA) consolidated EPS limit the upside. Maintain
Neutral.
Alpesh Mehta
(Alpesh.Mehta@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5415
Vallabh Kulkarni
(Vallabh.Kulkarni@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5430
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.