20 November 2014
Update | Sector: Technology
Tech Mahindra
BSE Sensex
28,068
S&P CNX
8,402
CMP: INR2,704
TP: INR3,250
Buy
Acquires Lightbridge communication corporation
Stock Info
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
M.Cap. (INR b)
M.Cap. (USD b)
TECHM IN
235.5
2,719/1,643
18/35/-5
637.0
10.3
Financial Snapshot (INR Billion)
Y/E Mar
2015E 2016E 2017E
Sales
EBITDA
Adj. PAT
EPS Gr. (%)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
Payout (%)
P/E (x)
222.7 290.3 331.8
43.9
30.3
13.1
28.6
29.5
16.1
19.8
57.3
39.3
29.6
29.0
31.7
16.9
15.3
9.4
64.6
44.7
13.7
26.5
29.8
17.4
13.4
7.9
Signals intent to swiftly capitalize on the network services opportunity
Acquires LCC, strengthens its network services prowess
TECHM announced definitive agreement to acquire 100% stake in global
network services leader Lightbridge Communications Corporation (LCC) for
an enterprise value of USD240m. The deal should close by 4QFY15.
LCC has significant capabilities in the network managed services space along
with relationships with marquee clientele in communication industry. The
combined company will be able to offer full range of network services to
both communications service providers as well as to the ecosystem of
partners.
Adj. EPS (INR) 136.8 177.3 201.6
Acquisition adds ~USD430m CY14E revenues, ~8% EBITDA margin
LCC’s estimated revenues in CY14 stand at USD430m, with EBITDA margin of
8%. This implies consideration of 7x CY14E EV/EBITDA. LCC also has ~USD85m
debt on its books. Normalized net margin is estimated at 3-4%.
Strategic fit, track record lends confidence on profit synergies
EV/EBITDA (x) 12.5
Shareholding pattern (%)
Sep-14 Jun-14 Sep-13
Promoter
DII
FII
36.0
10.6
39.6
36.2
10.8
39.1
36.5
15.1
32.6
The acquisition equips TECHM with complete set of capabilities in the
Network services space, readying itself to leverage the opportunity in
segment; and is a strategic fit in that regard.
Leveraging TECHM’s global delivery network is one of the avenues of
improving LCC’s current 8% profitability, and we expect gradual
improvement in LCC margins, as demonstrated in the case of Satyam.
Marginal EPS dilution in FY15, accretion in FY16
Our FY16E revenue estimate is up by 10.8% assuming 10% revenue growth at
LCC. Our FY15E EPS estimate is down marginally by 1% to INR136.8. Assuming
no synergy benefits on margins in FY16, the EPS accretion is only 0.3%, to
INR177.3.
Others
13.7
14.0
15.8
*FII includes depository receipts
Stock Performance (1-year)
Valuation View
While our earnings estimates over the next couple of years do not move
significantly in either direction, the acquisition does declare TECHM’s intent
to capitalize swiftly on the Network services potential.
We expect TECHM to grow its USD revenue at a CAGR of 25% over FY14-16
and EPS at a CAGR of 21% during this period. We are rolling over our Target
to FY17, and our revised target price of INR3250 discounts FY17E EPS by
16x. Maintain Buy.
Ashish Chopra
(Ashish.Chopra@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5424
Siddharth Vora
(Siddharth.Vora@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5585
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.