15 January 2015
3QFY15 Results Update | Sector:
Technology
TCS
BSE SENSEX
28,076
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
S&P CNX
8,494
TCS IN
1,958.7
CMP: INR2,545
TP: INR2,650 (+4%)
Disappointing growth in Services revenue
n
Neutral
M.Cap (INR b)/(USD b) 5,288/86.2
52-Week Range (INR) 2,834/1,970
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Avg Val/Vol ‘000
Free float (%)
Financials & Valuation (INR b)
Y/E March
Sales
EBITDA
PAT
EPS (INR)
EPS Gr. (%)
BV/Sh.INR)
RoE (%)
P/E (x)
Div.Yld (%)
2015E 2016E 2017E
953 1,089 1,248
274
212
11.1
333
35.2
23.5
1.6
309
246
16.0
407
34.0
20.2
15.1
1.7
359
288
17.0
493
32.7
17.3
12.7
2.0
n
n
n
5/-5/-24
2,998/1,279
26.1
108.4 125.8 147.2
EV/EBITDA(x) 17.3
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Disappointing services growth:
TCS’ 3QFY15 constant currency (CC) revenue
growth was 2.5% QoQ (v/s est. of 3.1%), but excluding the sale of equipment
(2.3% of business) services, CC revenue growth was 1.6% QoQ, below our
estimate. Volume growth of 0.4% QoQ is a 23-quarter low. EBIT margin was in
line at 27% (+20bp QoQ). PAT grew 2.9% QoQ to INR54.4b, below our estimate of
INR56.1b, on a tax rate of 24% v/s estimate of 23% and lower absolute operating
profit.
Contrasting trends across TCS and INFO:
The trend of volume-pricing split across
TCS and INFO contrasted in 3QFY15 – INFO’s CC realization declined 1.6% QoQ
and TCS’ rose by 2.3%. TCS’ volume growth was 0.4%, against INFO’s 4.2% QoQ.
Positive read through for industry:
TCS’ comments of larger structured programs
around Digital, likely recovery in Retail and positive growth outlook in the US and
Europe are positive. However, cost structure transformation initiatives in BFSI on
the back of multiple fines could lead to elongated deal cycles.
Valuation and view:
We have lowered the FY16E/17E revenue and EPS estimates
by ~3% mainly due to cross currency MTM. We note a catch-up in INFO’s
performance to TCS’ for the second consecutive quarter and continue to expect a
gradual convergence in the valuation gap. TCS’ growth will continue to lead peers
in the near term, but we expect continued tapering of outperformance delta. Our
target price of INR2,650 discounts FY17E EPS by 18x, in line with the long term
average. Higher multiple will be a function of sustained high growth delta to
peers, though there are few indicators of the same. Maintain
Neutral.
Ashish Chopra
(Ashish.Chopra@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5424
Siddharth Vora
(Siddharth.Vora@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5585
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.