19 January 2015
3QFY15 Results Update | Sector:
Metals
Hindustan Zinc
BSE SENSEX
28,262
Bloomberg
Equity Shares (m)
52-Week Range (INR)
1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%)
Free float (%)
S&P CNX
8,551
HZ IN
4,225.3
184/115
-6/-13/-10
35.1
CMP: INR160
TP: INR215 (+34%)
Buy
In-line: higher other income offsets sales volume miss
HZL’s (HZ) 3QFY15 PAT of INR23.8b (9% QoQ / 38% YoY) was marginally ahead of our
estimate as a higher-than-expected other income offset the impact of lower sales
volume. EBITDA of INR20.9b (4% QoQ/15% YoY) was a 6% miss on lower volumes and
zinc premium and was offset by slightly lower cost of production (CoP). Volume miss
was on account of higher cathode stocks, as mine production at 242kt was broadly in-
line with our estimate. Key result highlights:
n
Net sales grew 1% QoQ / 12% YoY to INR38.5b (6% miss to our estimate). Implied
zinc premium in 3Q was at 11.7%, below 12% in 2Q/14.7% in 3QFY14, as
increasing Chinese exports improved metal availability. Zinc metal production was
flat QoQ (+8% YoY) at 196kt despite the mine production rising 10% QoQ (14%
YoY) to 242kt. Lead production rose 20% QoQ (flat YoY) at 30kt.
n
Reported CoP (ex-royalty) declined 3% QoQ (-8% YoY) to INR50,534/t (lower than
our estimate) on better fixed cost absorption and lower diesel cost. Employee cost
was higher due to one-off wage renegotiation related charges and is expected to
reverse in the coming quarters.
n
Other income was at INR8.1b (92% QoQ / 17% YoY) on mark-to-market treasury
gains. Cash and cash equivalents closed at INR290b.
n
Royalty-linked charge, on recent amendments to MMDRA Act, is likely to increase,
but rules are yet to be framed. We await further clarity to factor the impact.
Valuation and view:
We lower FY15E-17E EBITDA forecast by 2-4% factoring the 3Q
result. Our 12-month target price stands reduced to INR215. Although metal sales
volumes surprised negatively in 3Q, mining ramp-up was in line with our estimate.
HZ’s mine production is estimated to post 3% CAGR over FY14-17E to 952kt
(management targets capacity of 1.2 mt). Maintain
Buy.
M.Cap. (INR b) / (USD b) 677.7/11.0
Avg Val(INRm)/Vol ‘000 256/1,666
Financials & Valuation (INR Billion)
Y/E MAR
Sales
EBITDA
NP
Adj.EPS(INR)
EPS Gr(%)
RoE (%)
RoCE (%)
P/E (x)
P/BV
EV/EBITDA(x)
2015E 2016E 2017E
150.7 157.3 161.0
78.0
86.3
20.4
25.2
20.9
23.0
7.8
1.5
4.5
81.1
79.5
18.8
-7.9
16.5
19.7
8.5
1.3
3.6
81.4
81.9
19.4
3.1
15.0
18.0
8.3
1.2
2.9
Estimate change
TP change
Rating change
Sanjay Jain
(SanjayJain@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5412
Dhruv Muchhal
(Dhruv.Muchhal@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3027 8033
Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report.
Motilal Oswal research is available on
www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities,
Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.